Why These Parties Stayed Away From INDIA, NDA

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The Congress and 25 other Opposition parties last month unveiled the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance, which now has 39 parties.

Around 65 parties are in one or the other alliance.

But some are not. And it's for a reason.

The Janata Dal-Secular, or JD-S, which is almost entirely Karnataka-based and is in the Opposition against a Congress government in the state, said it was ready to throw in its lot with the BJP.

However, this 'offer' elicited no reaction from the BJP's top leadership. It is only the state-based BJP that has indicated the proposal could work.

Former Karnataka chief minister Basavaraj S Bommai told reporters in Hubbali that JD-S leader H D Kumaraswamy had made 'certain feelings' public.

'That is for a discussion between our leadership and JD-S President H D Deve Gowda,' Bommai added.

In the elections to the 224-member assembly held in May, the Congress bagged 135 seats, while the BJP secured 66 and the JD-S 19.

But in the Lok Sabha elections in 2019, the JD-S, which contested as part of the Opposition United Progressive Alliance, fought in nine seats and got nearly 38 per cent of the vote share in the seats it contested though it won only one (the state has 28 Lok Sabha seats).

The BJP won 25 seats and a whopping 51 per cent of the vote share.

The party has been improving its Lok Sabha vote share steadily in Karnataka: Little wonder then that it is reluctant to share this with anyone else, believing it has more to lose than gain from such an arrangement.

The parties that are part of neither the NDA nor INDIA are: The Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP), Biju Janata Dal (BJD), Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), JD-S, Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, and SAD-Mann.

Of these, the YSRCP (based largely in Andhra Pradesh), the Telangana-based BRS, and the BJD pose a big threat to both alliances, judging by past performance.

Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Odisha together send 63 members to the Lok Sabha.

So are the parties in the middle, destined forever to stay in the middle until they are obliterated? Sandeep Shastri, vice-chancellor of Jagran Lakecity University and a respected scholar, said: "It is about competitive politics.

Whether it is the BRS or BJD, both are in competition with the two alliances.

In the case of the YSR Congress, it is also the deviation from its (BJP's) core agenda that is keeping them out of the NDA.

The BJP has been gaining ground in all but Andhra Pradesh.

What is common to all is the paradox: The BJP has seen a dramatic improvement of its vote share in the Lok Sabha poll but only incremental improvement in the assembly elections in these states.

This is not the only contradiction. Parties like the AIMIM and AIUDF that draw their base largely from minority communities are opposed to the NDA but ambiguous about their support to INDIA.

The AIUDF, headed by perfume king Badruddin Ajmal and limited to Assam, for instance, got nearly 8 per cent of the vote polled in Assam in 2019, contested only three seats, and won one -- but has a bitter relationship with the Congress unit in the state.

The AIMIM is trying to expand its footprint -- it won only one seat in Telangana in 2019, getting 2.8 per cent of the vote. Since then, it has tested its fortunes outside Telangana.

But INDIA partners, especially the Samajwadi Party, view it warily -- its growth efforts in UP, the election data clearly shows, are at the cost of the SP.

The SAD's compulsions are equally complex. One of the BJP's oldest alliance partners, it is now seen by that party as a drag on its growth ambitions in Punjab.

So are the parties in the middle destined forever to stay in the middle until they are obliterated?

Rahul Verma, fellow at the Centre for Policy Research and well-known researcher of domestic politics in India, said: "One can broadly divide these non-aligned parties into three categories. First, there are parties like the BJD, BRS, and YSRCP which are confident of retaining power in their states in the next election.

"They have no incentive to be part of either the NDA or INDIA at this stage, but they may hedge their bets towards the winning coalition in the post-poll setting.

"The second type of parties is like the SAD and the TDP, which are still significant players in the state but cannot win without an ally at this stage.

"These parties are showing an inclination to be part of the BJP-led alliance, but the BJP is not making commitments because it may want a greater share of seats to contest in the Lok Sabha -- basically changing the equation of the past.

"In the same category, you could put parties like the AIUDF and AIMIM, which cannot go with the NDA for obvious reasons, and INDIA is not sending them an invitation because it fears that such parties on its side may help the BJP to polarise the Hindu-Muslim axis.

"The third type of parties is the BSP and JD(S). These parties are in terminal decline. They can go either side, and it seems that both alliances want to squeeze them further."

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com