Why Jagan won't pull down Cong govt in AP now

While the Congress government in Andhra Pradesh grapples to keep its flock together following the resignation of 29 members of legislative assembly in support of beleaguered YSR Congress president and member of Parliament YS Jaganmohan Reddy, the latter's next move would totally depend on the Telegu Desam Party.

There has been hectic activity in the Jagan camp since Monday morning's development.

The Congress government is safe for now, but if 10 more were to quit there is every chance of the government coming down.

An insider in the Jagan camp says that many more within the Congress are waiting to quit the moment a green signal is given. They claim that in all Jagan has as many as 47 supporters inside the Congress, including the 29 MLAs who resigned today.

Sources say that the 29 MLAs who quit on Monday did so specifically on the instructions of Jagan and that this was aimed at countering the CBI raids against the YSR Congress president.

So is Jagan going to pull down the government or is it more about playing the cat and mouse game?

In public, Jagan made it clear that his intention was not to pull down the Congress government. He denied having any role to play in the resignation of the 29 MLAs.

If the MLAs feel they should join me, then I really cannot stop them, he said.

The bigger challenge, however, that Jagan faces now is from the Telegu Desam Party, which has reportedly decided that if the Congress is faced with a trust vote most of their MLAs would abstain to save the government.

Today, in the state it is only the YSR Congress and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi, which want an election. The TDP and Congress would avoid an election, as none of the surveys give either of them a chance of winning.

Hence, both Congress and the TDP have an internal understanding.

Jagan, who has in the past mocked the two parties by saying that there is no opposition in Andhra Pradesh, is aware of this. He would hold on before he decides to pull out the rest of the MLAs.

In case he does and the Congress wins the trust vote, it would mean that the government survives another six months and there is a chance of them going aggressive on him.

Monday's development is more of a warning to the Congress of what is he is capable of.