Why Bangladesh cast a keen eye on Assam, West Bengal poll results

 The elections in two eastern Indian states were keenly observed in Bangladesh for two major contentious issues, writes Prakash Bhandari from Dhaka.

People of Bangladesh took keen interest in the assembly elections in Assam and West Bengal.

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina even sent a member of her cabinet, Amir Hossain Amu to attend the swearing in ceremony of Mamata Banerjee in Kolkata. The event was watched far and wide in the country on various television channels.

There is linguistic and cultural affinities to both the states. In Bangladesh, people largely speak Bengali and in some pockets people speak Bengali with an Assamese dialect.

"We cannot forget that Lord Radcliffe, who while settling the boundary issues related to partition of India excluded Assam from East Bengal that forced Mohammed Ali Jinnah to accept a complex East Pakistan. Post 1947, the Assamese set themselves against the Bengalis that resulted in agitation and bloodbath. The issue of immigration is far from settled and the Assam Accord is only on papers. The issue remains unresolved and now, the new government in Assam would play communal cards," said Paresh Chakma, a Dhaka University PhD student.

The people of Bangladesh were particularly following the trends in Assam where history was being made with the Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance bidding for power. While the result in West Bengal was a foregone conclusion with Mamata Banerjee returning to power, the people in Bangladesh feared that her return would only create fresh deadlocks and the issue of water sharing will remain unresolved. They feel that she would stick to her old stand of not letting even a drop of Teesta river water flow into Bangladesh.

But what is debated on the streets of Dhaka and other major cities of Bangladesh is the emergence of the BJP as a major player in Assam. The people of Bangladesh have been keenly watching the election pledges of the BJP and its election partners that have been anti-immigrants.

In its manifesto, the BJP promised the people of Assam that it would prohibit the employment of the 'infiltrators' in factories and in farms. The BJP manifesto also promised to set up special border police to check infiltration from the Bangladesh side. The BJP is trying to overthrow the vote bank policy of the Congress government which liberally disbursed election identity cards to illegal Bangladeshis, on the basis of which they acquired citizenship.

The leadership in Bangladesh feel that with a strong bilateral relationship, the BJP government will not be able to push back all those who have all the documents to prove that they are Indian citizens. The 1993 agreement between India and Bangladesh comprehensively deals with the issue of push-backs of illegal immigrants. Only people or group of people who are found crossing the border illegally would be pushed back.

"The BJP have been telling people in Assam that once it comes to power it would seal the border and send back all Bengali-speaking settlers whom they consider illegal. The BJP had said that they would welcome Hindus willing to cross over to India, but Muslims will be pushed back," said Enam Ahmed Choudhry, a political observer.

Bangladesh hope that the BJP would appreciate the ground realities and not try to disturb the good friendly relationship between two Asian countries. Bangladesh also feel that once the borders are sealed, it would lead to connectivity problems and if the BJP government initiate actions to push back Bangladeshis it would lead to a refugee problem.

"The problem of migrants from Bangladesh to Assam is nothing new. When the issue of enclaves were not solved and the borders were almost porous, people from Bangladesh side have been going to Assam and Mizoram. 

"The problem of borders particularly the enclaves were sorted out amicably and now only it has to be implemented. This could be achieved because of very cordial bilateral relationship two countries. The people of East Bengal never wanted to go with Pakistan and wanted a united Bengal which could not happen. The new government in Assam led by Sarbananda Sonowal should take a practical view and try to sort out the problem amicably and not think in terms of religion," said Abul Naseer of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party.

But the BJP has a promise to keep with the political mandate given by the people of Assam. There was polarisation and the election results proved that the BJP, who had won only 11 seats in the 2011 assembly elections, won as many as 60 seats in 2016. This change was occurred largely due to the overwhelming support it received from Hindu voters.

"The people of Bangladesh were happy with the Tarun Gogoi government which ruled Assam for 15 years. Gogoi failed to understand the undercurrent and did not join the alliance with Badruddin Ajmal's All India United Democratic Front. Gogoi, now have to pay a heavy price by ignoring the AIUDF. Had the Congress forged an alliance with the AIUDF, the results would have been different. Now, Assam will be ruled by a government that would never be secular and this would mean that the immigrants from Bangladesh will always live in fear," said Mohammed Bilal, an Awami League activist.

In Bangladesh, Mamata Banerjee is considered as a thorn in the flesh in Indo-Bangla relationship.

In 2012, when Manmohan Singh visited Dhaka to discuss various bilateral issues including the Teesta water sharing problem, Banerjee refused to share the water.

During the last visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Dhaka, the Trinamool Congress chief also went. This gave hope for a solution to the Teesta problem. But apart from exchange of words and promises of friendly and cooperative ties between the two neighbours, nothing moved and the water sharing deal has still to be resolved.

Bangladesh's Minister of State for Water Resources Muhammed Nazrul Islam said as India moves on to divert its river water to its number of water starved states, India must think of the people of Bangladesh.

Islam said Modi has promises to keep and should redress Bangladesh's problem. He said the international rules protect the rights of people living downstream of transboundary rivers. Sheikh Mujibur Rahman (fomer Bangladesh prime minister) had signed the Ganges Treaty with India, but the treaty was never executed in true letter and spirit.

The water diplomacy weakened because Bangladesh trusted India's promise and then Banerjee threw spanner in the wheel by raising regional issues. Banerjee was under great pressure when she came to Dhaka along with Modi as the election in Bengal was only a year away. Any decision on her part to allow the Teesta river water flow into Bangladesh would have affected her party's election prospects. Now, with resounding victory to her credit, would she show some concern for the people of Bangladesh and allow the promised Teesta’s share of water flow into Bangladesh, is a question that is being debated.

The stand that Mamata takes will be full of caution as she was given a overwhelming support by the minority in the recent assembly election. The percentage of Muslim population in West Bengal is staggering 29 per cent which the Trinamool Congress would not like to lose. The Bengali Muslims have sympathy with their brethren in Bangladesh and they would not want Mamata to thrive on her success and deny Bangladesh their share in the Teesta water.

Moreover, the issue of Teesta is an international issue where Mamata's stand will have to be viewed in perspective of the agreement between the two countries. But as Mamata holds the valve of the barrages that release river water to Bangladesh, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will have to take a balance view and will have to rely on Mamata to take the bilateral relations forward.