What to watch for in today's 4-state RS polls

Voting for 16 Rajya Sabha seats in four states is underway on Friday.

While 41 candidates out of 57 were already elected unopposed last week, elections are being held for 16 RS seats in Haryana, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Karnataka on Friday as the number of candidates in these states exceeds the number of seats going to polls.

Here is the lowdown on what to watch for in the four states.

Karnataka

Suspense continues over the outcome of the fourth seat, for which all three political parties -- the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Congress and the Janata Dal-Secular -- are contenders, despite none of them having adequate number of votes to win it.

The six candidates in the fray for the Rajya Sabha polls from the state are Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, actor-politician Jaggesh and outgoing MLC Lehar Singh Siroya from the BJP; former Union minister Jairam Ramesh and state general secretary Mansoor Ali Khan from the Congress; and former MP D Kupendra Reddy from the JD-S.

A candidate needs the support of 45 MLAs to win and based on their strength in the legislative assembly, the BJP can win two seats and the Congress one.

After getting its two Rajya Sabha candidates (Sitharaman and Jaggesh) elected on its own strength in the assembly, the BJP will be left with an additional 32 MLA votes.

The Congress will be left with 25 MLA votes after electing Jairam Ramesh, while the JD-S has only 32 MLAs, which is not sufficient to win a seat.

The fight for the fourth seat thus will see a direct contest between Siroya (BJP), Khan (Congress) and Reddy (JD-S).

While Siroya and Reddy are short of votes from 13 MLAs each, Khan will need 20 votes.

The 4th seat can only win by cross-voting by the other parties.

So whoever wins, it means the other party MLAs have cross-voted.

Maharashtra

A close contest being played out between the state's ruling Shiv Sena and the opposition BJP for the sixth seat.

There are a total of seven candidates in the fray for six seats.

While the BJP has fielded Union minister Piyush Goyal, former state minister Anil Bonde and former MP Dhananjay Mahadik, the Shiv Sena has given opportunity to MP Sanjay Raut and Sanjay Pawar.

From the NCP, Praful Patel is in the ring, while the Congress has fielded Imran Pratapgarhi.

The 288-member legislative assembly is the electoral college for the biennial elections. But the total votes have come down to 285 since there is a vacancy due to the death of Shiv Sena MLA Ramesh Latke and a special court on Thursday rejecting the pleas filed by minister Nawab Malik and former minister Anil Deshmukh seeking a day's bail to vote in the elections.

The Shiv Sena has 55 MLAs, the NCP 53, the Congress 44, the BJP 106, the Bahujan Vikas Aghadi three, the Samajwadi party, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen and Prahar Janshakti party two each, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, the Communist Party of India-Marxist, the Peasants and Workers Party, the Swabhimani Party, the Rashtriya Samaj Paksh, the Jansurajya Shakti party, the Krantikari Shetkari Party one each; there are 13 independent legislators.

The quota for the first preference votes has come down to 41.

The Congress and the NCP have decided to transfer their second preference votes to Shiv Sena's Sanjay Pawar.

The All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen has also decided to vote in favour of the Congress candidate.

What it comes down is that the contest for the sixth seat is between friends-turned-foes BJP's Mahadik and Sena's Pawar.

Whoever wins, is a blow for the other side.

Haryana

While the BJP with 40 MLAs in the 90-member Haryana Assembly has nine more than the 31 first preference votes required for a straight win, the contest has become keen for the second seat with the entry of media baron Kartikeya Sharma.

He has the backing of the BJP-JJP combine, the Independents, and Gopal Kanda, the lone MLA of the Haryana Lokhit Party.

The BJP has fielded former minister Krishan Lal Panwar, while Ajay Maken, former Union minister, is the Congress nominee.

The Congress has 31 members in the state assembly, just enough to help its candidate win a seat. Its prospects could be in jeopardy in case of cross-voting.

Kuldeep Bishnoi, the younger son of former Haryana chief minister, the late Bhajan Lal, is reportedly miffed with the party as he did not find any position in the new state Congress unit when it was reconstituted in April.

In the 90-member Haryana assembly, the BJP has 40 MLAs while the Congress has 31.

The JJP, an ally of the BJP, has 10 legislators, while the Indian National Lok Dal and Haryana Lokhit Party have one each. There are seven Independents.

Will Ajay Maken win or the BJP-backed independent? That is what the battle in Haryana is about.

Rajasthan

The Congress has fielded Mukul Wasnik, Randeep Surjewala and Pramod Tiwari, a prominent Uttar Pradesh politician, while the BJP has chosen former minister Ghanshyam Tiwari, who earlier was a vocal critic of former Rajasthan CM Vasundhara Raje.

In the House of 200, the Congress has 108 MLAs, BJP 71, Independents 13, Rashtriya Loktantrik Party three, Communist Party of India-Marxist and Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) two each.

A candidate needs 41 votes to win.

The Congress and the BJP are thus set to comfortably win two and one seats, respectively.

But the entry of independent candidate Subhash Chandra backed by the BJP makes the contest interesting.

The Congress needs 123 votes to win three seats. The party claims it has the support of a total of 126 MLAs.

The BJP has 71 MLAs in the state assembly, enough to get one seat in the Rajya Sabha this time. After that, it will be left with 30 surplus votes.

These 30 surplus votes of the BJP and three of RLP (total 33) are with Chandra. He is still short of eight MLAs to win his seat, and hopes that some of the Congress's surplus votes will be cast for him.

So will the Congress gets its third seat, or will Subhash Chandra win?

With inputs from PTI