Was there a foreign hand in the Pune blast? That is the key question troubling investigators now. Though intelligence inputs clearly point at Indian Mujahideen's role, investigators do not rule out a foreign hand. Union Home Secretary G K Pillai had told rediff.com on Monday that the picture would become clear in another day or two.
Why do intelligence agencies think that there could be an external hand? Sources say they have many reaons to believe so. Some of the key points are: The Karachi Project, the speech by Jammat-ud-Dawa leader Hafiz Makki and the David Headley angle and the use of RDX.
The Karachi Project: A couple of days ago, Ilyas Kashmiri, the head of the 313 brigade of Al Qaeda had sent out an email to an online medium, Asia Times in Pakistan speaking of mass destruction in India. Though Kashmiri does not make a direct mention of Pune in this email, he does talk of blasts and fidayeen strikes across India.
Intelligence Bureau sources say the Karachi Project has been planed almost two months ago in which the ISI is trying to rope in the LeT and the Al Qaeda's 313 brigade to carry out strikes in India. The latest intercepts, regarding the Karachi Project, would suggest a series of plans are being hatched to carry out fidayeen strikes in India.
The IB says these fidayeen have been positioned in Karachi and would be sent into India when the ISI and the Lashkar finally give the nod. The IB says that they had roped in Kashmiri since he runs one of the best training centres for fidayeen and he had trained several members for the Karachi Project.
The latest email which has been sent by Kashmiri is just a warning and a reminder of what is being planned in Pakistan..
Excerpts of Kashmiri's email: "The international community should play a role in helping the Kashmiris their right of self determination and also prevent India from committing brutalities. We warn the international community not to send their players for the 2010 Hockey World Cup, the Commonwealth Games or the Indian Premier league. If they do they will face the consequences. We will continue to attack India until its army leaves Kashmir.
The IB, which is scrutinising this mail, says there is a deliberate attempt to disrupt the talks between India and Pakistan. From Kashmiri's email, it is clear that the ISI hatched the Karachi Project.
The Karachi Project also indicates the ironing off the differences between the ISI and Ilyas Kashmiri who had fallen out when the latter had suggested that he fight alongside the Lashkar-e-Tayiba in Kashmir. Whether the Pune blast is part of the Karachi Project is very hard to tell at the moment. Kashmiri has spoken of India as a whole and not made any mention about Pune. However the IB is studying the mail and also the speech by Makki.
Makki's speech and David Headley: Hafiz Makki, the leader of the JuD had delivered an India hate speech a couple of weeks ago. He said that the India was not giving Pakistan its share of water and hence cities like New Delhi, Pune and Kanpur would be attacked.
While reiterating that Kashmir would be their primary objective he said that several other Indian cities are on the radar. The IB says that this is the closest they have been able to get where a foreign hand in the Pune blasts is concerned. Makki's speech and also the fact that David Headley had surveyed Pune have some link and we are studying that. Pillai said on Monday that they are examining these factors and would find whether there were international ramifications in this case.
The IB says that Pune was never mentioned much by terror groups in the past. However, of late there has been an interest in this city by terror groups. Makki's speech and Headley's reccees are an indication that Pune is high on the Lashkar's radar. While sleeper cells of the Lashkar-sponsored Indian Mujahideen were being set up in Kerala on a large scale, there was a sudden shift in the past one year to Pune.
RDX: Security experts say that most RDX in India is sourced from Pakistan though of late it has become difficult to send in RDX in large quantities into India. Investigators say that the use of RDX is one of the biggest indications that Pakistan had a role to play in this case.
Pune has been in jihadi crosshairs for some time
With Pune it was a matter of when, not if