UP Bypolls: Litmus Test For Yogi

For Adityanath, it's not just a chance to reaffirm his dominance in Uttar Pradesh, it's an opportunity to solidify his narrative as a vote-winner.

Even as whispers of friction between Yogi Adityanath's Uttar Pradesh government and the Bharatiya Janata Party's central organisation refuse to fade, the saffron-robed monk-politician is staring at a political litmus test: The upcoming assembly bypolls across 10 seats.

The recent Lok Sabha debacle has cast a shadow, and his task ahead is clear -- restore the party's flagging confidence in the politically crucial state.

The Election Commission is yet to release the bypoll schedule, but the battle lines have already been drawn.

The BJP is squaring off against the Opposition Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance, now a crucial piece of the INDIA bloc's larger strategy.

Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party, too, has thrown its hat into the ring; it usually skips assembly and parliamentary bypolls.

The chief minister has sent 30 ministers and the party has deployed 15 senior leaders as caretakers (or in-charges) to the 10 poll-bound assembly constituencies.

Their mission?

To soothe any discontent among the rank and file, whose murmurs of neglect have grown louder in recent months.

The party's state leadership has dismissed any talk of internal rifts as idle speculation, insisting that the BJP machine in Uttar Pradesh is humming along in perfect harmony with Adityanath at the helm.

These bypolls come in the wake of several vacated seats -- nine of them abandoned by legislators who made their way to the Lok Sabha in the recent general elections.

Karhal, Katehari, Kundarki, Khair, Majhawan, Meerapur, Milkipur, Phulpur and Ghaziabad Sadar are now battlegrounds.

The 10th seat, Sisamau in Kanpur City district, stands vacant due to the disqualification of Irfan Solanki, an SP legislator, convicted in a criminal case.

Behind the scenes, though, intrigue brews.

Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya and BJP state President Bhupendra Chaudhry recently met with national party president J P Nadda in New Delhi -- a development that stoked speculation about friction between Maurya and Adityanath in the power corridors of Lucknow.

This backdrop of political tension heightens the importance of the bypolls.

For Adityanath, it's not just a chance to reaffirm his dominance in Uttar Pradesh, it's an opportunity to solidify his narrative as a vote-winner, after the BJP's commanding performance in the state in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the 2022 assembly polls.

A strong showing now would quell speculation of a decline in the BJP's fortunes in Uttar Pradesh, following the party's disappointing performance in the 2024 general elections, where it claimed only 33 of the state's 80 Lok Sabha seats -- down sharply from 62 in 2019.

Victory would also bolster the BJP's standing as it hurtles towards the 2027 state elections.

Conversely, the bypolls are a golden opportunity for the INDIA bloc to seize momentum ahead of key elections in several states later this year.

The Samajwadi Party's 2024 resurgence, winning 37 Lok Sabha seats, was its best-ever showing, and Akhilesh Yadav's party sees the bypolls as a chance to continue that upward trajectory. Its ally Congress wrested 6 seats.

Last month, Adityanath had asked his ministers to hit the ground in the 10 constituencies, to reconnect with the electorate and to smooth over any grievances among party workers.

Notably absent from the strategy meetings, however, were Maurya, Deputy Chief Minister Brajesh Pathak, and several senior state BJP leaders.

Of the 10 contested seats, five are currently held by the Samajwadi Party, three by the BJP, and two by BJP allies -- the NISHAD Party and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD).

The BJP secured Khair, Phulpur, and Ghaziabad in 2022, while the SP claimed Sisamau, Katehari, Kundarki, Milkipur, and Karhal.

The NISHAD Party controls Manjhwah, while the RLD, previously aligned with the SP, holds Meerapur.

The Opposition, too, isn't taking any chances.

Samajwadi Party Spokesperson Juhie Singh told Business Standard that "our leader Akhilesh Yadavji is talking to the local party leaders" to fine-tune the poll strategy.

The INDIA bloc, she said, is confident of sweeping all 10 seats.

The BJP is equally bullish. "We take every election seriously," said UP BJP Secretary Chandra Mohan.

"The people will stand with us once again, and we will win all 10 seats."

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com