The biggest political challenge of 2016

Assembly elections are due in the summer of 2016 in five places: Assam, West Bengal in the east and Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry in the south

Assembly elections are due in the summer of 2016 in five places: Assam, West Bengal in the east and Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry in the south. These account for 116 Lok Sabha seats. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party has little or no political capital here. How will the outcome of these elections influence national politics? Here are the facts

ASSAM
Fighting for the impossible?

Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi is hoping for an unprecedented fourth term in power. Will he be able to pull it off?

The Congress in Assam has faced recent haemorrhage because the man Tarun Gogoi considered his right hand, Himanta Biswa Sarma, walked out and joined the Bharatiya Janata Party with nine colleagues. This is both a blessing and a curse for the BJP -- Biswa Sarma is a man with a chequered past and he and his MLAs will seek their due from the party. The BJP has announced Union minister Sarabanand Sonowal would be chief minister if the party comes to power. Badruddin Ajmal, leader of the minorities front, has not indicated whether he will reach an understanding with the Congress. Assam could throw up a surprise, especially for the BJP.

WEST BENGAL
Roots strengthening the leaves?

The Trinamool Congress stormed to power in 2011 and has grown from strength to strength.

Defections have marked the five years of the TMC government -- sitting MLAs have opted to leave cadre-based parties like the Communist Party of India-Marxist to join it by way of future political insurance. But, danger is lurking -- if the Congress and Left parties join hands, could Mamata Banerjee’s party be pushed back? Will corruption in the countryside finally catch up? Will the BJP be able to exploit the new alignments? These are questions this poll will answer.

TAMIL NADU
Keeping the Opposition divided

The recent floods will be an important factor in this poll, with the Opposition united against the government’s handling of the calamity.

The recent overtures by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam to the Congress were not only pro forma. The Opposition knows if it continues to fight against each other, the Jayalalithaa-led All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam will sweep the polls, for a record third time though there is a lot of chatter about Jayalalithaa seeking out alliance partners, she has made it clear that her party will contest alone. This is par for the course. The BJP is weak in the state and actor Vijayakanth appears to be losing ground. The question is: Will the DMK pull off a surprise?

PUDUCHERRY
Politics of another kind

An original offshoot of the Congress, the All India NR Congress has to prove its spurs.

Politics in Puducherry mimics the politics of Tamil Nadu. So, Jayalalithaa’s All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam fought in alliance with N Rangasamy’s All India N.R. Congress in 2011. But, when the leader (and current the chief minister) Rangasamy found he was in a position to form a government, he snapped ties with AIADMK almost immediately after the results came out. The question is, does AINRC’s popularity still reign? Or will Jayalalithaa ask her party to seize the challenge, go it alone and show she can win without help? The theme of the election is likely to be politics of defection versus the record of governance.

KERALA
The battle of the Fronts

With the BJP advancing, who stands to lose the most? This election will decide.

It is not about who will win by what margin but the collective strength of the United Democratic Front , currently in power and led by the Congress; and the Left Democratic Front which lost in the 2011 elections by a wafer-thin margin. Both fronts are riven by struggles for leadership, factional fights and groupism. There is a new disruptive factor -- the Bharatiya Janata Party. This could be the biggest surprise of 2016.