A new study reveals that making complex strategic decisions with less thinking time can actually lead to better outcomes, emphasising the importance of intuition.
Complex strategic decisions may be better when made with less thinking time, a study suggests.
Researchers, including those from the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich in Germany and Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands, analysed data from professional games of chess and found that the decision time reflects the subjectively perceived difficulty of the problem, which can vary depending on a situation.
"With this study, we've been able to show that, if you keep the objectively measurable difficulty of the decision constant, somebody who thinks for longer will make worse decisions," author Uwe Sunde, professor of population economics from LMU Munich, said.
A person who reflects on an issue for longer may possibly perceive the level of complexity to be subjectively higher, the researchers said.
The findings, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), show that conversely, a shorter decision-making time might indicate a strong intuition of the player, and so they may have an innate sense of what the best move is.
Sunde said previous studies that looked at decision time and quality have analysed relatively simple decisions, often requiring students in lab settings.
The researchers analysed individual moves made by players in professional chess tournaments and measured the time the players took to make their decision.
The results were compared with the benchmarks set by chess engines to get an objective assessment of quality of the decision. Decisions made against the same opponent in different configurations on the chessboard were compared.
The authors wrote, "The results show that faster decisions are associated with higher decision quality, even after accounting for computational complexity, distinctiveness between alternatives, and time pressure."
Sunde said, "The correlation between the speed at which complex strategic decisions are made and the quality of these decisions is a priori ambiguous."
Taking more time to make a decision may result in a better-considered decision, but may also indicate that the question requiring an answer is perceived to be more difficult, which may be associated with a lower quality of decision, the researchers said.
"This is what distinguishes humans from machines: Humans can often recognise what's good or what isn't good from the situation. But if a person doesn't manage to grasp the situation quickly, they find it difficult to continue computing the problem rationally," Sunde said.
The researcher added that the study's result could also be applied to situations outside a game of chess where complex decisions have to be made.