Presidential poll a test of Opposition unity ahead of 2019

The Opposition is putting up a symbolic fight for the presidential polls as it knows that the BJP has the numbers to get its candidate elected to the top post, reports Archis Mohan.

In the second week of April, as the Budget session of Parliament drew to a close, Congress president Sonia Gandhi and Communist Party of India-Marxist chief Sitaram Yechury ran into each other in its corridors. Their brief conversation soon switched to a matter of common concern -- the upcoming elections for president and vice-President.

Both leaders felt a united Opposition should put up common candidates for the country’s top constitutional posts. This, however, required a longer strategy session. But they didn’t want the news, that they were deliberating on the issue, to become public at such an early stage.

The corridors of Parliament, or the Congress party office, were the places teeming with politicians and journalists and, therefore, were unsuitable for a meeting. The two also explored the possibility of a meeting at the Rajiv Gandhi Foundation, where the Congress president was to attend an event, but decided against it as Yechury’s presence there could have attracted attention.

Finally, they agreed to an old ‘trick’. From 2003 to 2008, Yechury was a frequent visitor to 10, Janpath, the official residence of Gandhi, but he had seldom used the front gate to avoid the media throng. This was around the time when Gandhi took the initiative to forge a joint front of opposition parties against the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led National Democratic Alliance and helped the installation of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government in 2004, with the Left parties supporting it from outside.

Like earlier, Yechury used the side gate that day to reach 10, Janpath. The Congress president and the CPI-M general secretary soon decided on the division of labour to reach out to the other opposition parties. Yechury was to meet Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam leadership, Sharad Pawar of the Nationalist Congress Party, and the Abdullahs of the National Conference. Gandhi was to talk to the rest. The two also discussed the probable names for the presidential candidate.

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NDA game plan

Strategists in the Narendra Modi government and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, including party chief Amit Shah, have kept a keen eye on opposition efforts and busied themselves with crunching the electoral college numbers. The emphatic electoral win in Uttar Pradesh has hugely boosted the chances of a BJP-nominated candidate for the President’s post to sail through. The NDA was short of nearly 70,000 electoral college votes before the UP elections, which has now shrunk to 18,000 due to its 325 seats in the state.

Though there is still no clarity on the government’s candidate, some governors who fancy their chances have been asked not to frequently travel to New Delhi to meet the PM and the BJP chief, according to a senior strategist. They include Manipur Governor Najma Heptulla, Jharkhand Governor Draupadi Murmu and Maharashtra Governor Ch Vidyasagar Rao.

There have been suggestions that the President should be from southern India and a non-politician. This, or so the argument goes in BJP circles, will not only reflect the BJP’s efforts to expand its base in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana, but also elevate the election of the President beyond party politics, as was the case with the Vajpayee government’s choice of APJ Abdul Kalam in 2002. But even senior leaders and Union ministers say they do not know the minds of Modi and Shah.

Opposition meetings

Last Tuesday evening, National Conference leader Farooq Abdullah landed at the AKG Bhavan, the headquarters of the CPI-M, to meet Yechury. Just back from a meeting with the PM on the situation in Kashmir, Abdullah was enthused about the idea of a common opposition candidate for President. Earlier this month, Yechury had travelled to Bhubaneswar to convince Patnaik. Others like NCP’s Pawar and DMK’s M K Stalin have also promised support. Besides Yechury, Gandhi also invited Bihar CM Nitish Kumar to hold consultations on the issue. Kumar met with her on April 20.

According to a Congress leader, Gandhi has also spoken to Pawar, Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad, CPI’s D Raja, Janata Dal-United’s Sharad Yadav, Samajwadi Party’s Mulayam Singh Yadav and Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati, among others. She is also slated to meet West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee.

Besides, Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi has had discussions with former UP CM Akhilesh Yadav. Several opposition leaders are scheduled to attend the 94th birthday celebrations of DMK veteran M K Karunanidhi in Chennai in early June where the name of the joint candidate could be announced. As of now, Gopalkrishna Gandhi, former governor and grandson of Mahatma Gandhi, seems to be emerging as the possible candidate.

According to sources, several opposition parties, particularly those that count the Congress as a rival in state politics, were resistant to the idea of a Congress leader being chosen the joint candidate. The Bengal CM and the DMK leadership came on board only when the name of Gopalkrishna Gandhi was suggested.

The ‘neutrals’

None in the Opposition has spoken to three key southern parties -- Tamil Nadu’s All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Y S Jaganmohan Reddy-led YSR Congress, and the Telangana Rashtra Samiti. A senior Opposition leader said all three parties, and several of their leaders, were being probed by central investigating agencies and were unlikely to take an independent position on the election.

Last week, the TRS, which is in power in Telangana, promised to support the BJP candidate in the polls. On Wednesday, YSR Congress’s Reddy called on the PM and promised support to the BJP nominee. Indications are that the AIADMK could also support the Modi government. For the BJP, the main concern is whether ally Shiv Sena votes in favour of its candidate or not. But, support from the AIADMK, the TRS and the YSR Congress will ensure a victory for the government’s nominee.

Need for opposition unity

The Opposition has little illusion that it will lose the presidential poll. But it believes there is an urgent need to put up a symbolic “ideological” fight to protect the Constitution, India’s pluralistic ethos, and its democratic traditions that it believes are under threat from the Sangh Parivar. On May 1, opposition leaders gathered to mark the 95th birth anniversary of late socialist leader Madhu Limaye, where many advocated unity.

In their meetings with Gandhi, both Yechury and Kumar told her the unity achieved among opposition ranks for the presidential polls would be the acid test for whether these parties can stick together for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

Yechury and Kumar also stressed the need for ideological cohesion and drafting a common minimum programme of opposition parties for the 2019 polls.

Photograph: Adnan Abidi/Reuters