Why impact of Osama's death won't be much on India

Will the death of Osama bin Laden have an impact on India? Was the encounter that led up to the death of world's most wanted man a real one? These are the two questions that are on the minds of security agencies who have watched the developments unfold surrounding Osama's death on Monday.

The morphed photographs on the internet on Monday and the hurry with which the body of Osama bin Laden was disposed off at sea have created doubts in the minds of many.

Indian agencies feel that there are two ways of looking at this. With Osama already being termed as a 'martyr' by the Muslim world, it would have become a problem had they preserved the body. Moreover, a burial on land would have turned that spot into a shrine for his followers, and this is something that the United States of America did not want.

Sources in the Indian intelligence agencies, while commenting on the Osama operation, say that the better thing to do would be to adopt 'a wait-and-watch' policy.

The US is bound to provide more evidence of his death in the days to come. However, one must also be aware that Osama reportedly had 11 lookalikes, and it is to be seen whether one of those were gunned down by the US forces.

There are many theories surrounding the death of Osama. There is a section which claims that Osama was killed 10 years back and his body was in a freezer all these years. It was only now that the US made an official announcement about the same.

The Indian agencies, however, believe that this claim can be debated since it would not have been possible to conceal this sort of information for this long.

Moreover, there is a 'deathly silence' among the terrorist groups and this is some sort of an indication that the man is really dead. They are bound to react in a couple of months and the reaction could also come in the form of a video of Osama bin Laden.

Indian agencies say that the impact of Osama's death would not be much on India. As we had pointed out on Monday, that the impact would be more of a psychological one on the terror groups within the country.

The modules of the Lashkar-e-Tayiba and other groups still look up to Osama as their hero when compared to their chief Hafiz Saeed or commander Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi (both involved in planning the 26/11 attacks).

The interrogation of various terror operatives have revealed that they worshipped Laden like a 'hero,' and it was 9/11 attack which attracted them to the cause of 'jihad.'

Osama had a lot of sympathisers within India too. Certain strong pockets in Kerala and Uttar Pradesh saw him as a 'hero' and they termed him as Sheikh Osama.

For them Osama was no ordinary man, but was viewed as the man who took on America single handedly. This kind of bravado is what they looked for in their leader and this prompted them to easily take to terrorism.

However, terror groups are likely to make quick amends following the death of Osama. During their earlier recruitment sermons they spoke of this man in great detail, today they will speak about how he laid down his life for the cause.

Osama himself had pointed out that he would die a martyr's death and how each one must be prepared to die for the cause. This would be the new line of preaching followed by the recruiters of 'Jihad,' Indian intelligence agencies also point out.

Following his death there was this aspect of revenge which was pointed out by various agencies in the world.

An alert/advisory was sounded following his death. Even though India has also issued such an alert, it is unlikely that any of the terror groups would carry out such an attack to 'avenge' his death.

The Lashkar, which controls all the operations in India, would keep its focus off India for the time being and would wait for the Al Qaeda to react instead.

However, intelligence agencies do not rule out the possibility of some fringe elements and terror groups in India staging an attack at will in order to prove a point and garner some publicity.