Assam: Opposition disunity will favour Congress

The anti-incumbency factor is virtually a non-issue in the forthcoming assembly elections in Assam.

Peace and progress are the two main issues that will get prominence over all other issues in the state assembly election campaign this time. The Tarun Gogoi-led Congress government's successful endeavour to start peace talks with a major faction of outlawed United Liberation Front of Asom -- headed by its Aurobinda Rajkhowa -- has given the party a tremendous boost on the eve of the elections.

Although a faction of ULFA led by its commander-in-chief Paresh Baruah is still opposed to any peace negotiations with the government, the people of Assam have extended their full support to the ongoing peace talks between the government and the ULFA.

Author Nirupama Borgohain told this correspondent, "This is a very good move and restoration of peace will ensure rapid progress of Assam." She also strongly criticised the anti-talk ULFA faction for their 'unrealistic and absurd sovereignty demand.'

Apart from ULFA , at least three major underground outfits including the National Democratic Front of Bodoland, Dima Halim Daogah and Karbi militant outfit have already signed ceasefire agreements with the central government and are now waiting to start a dialogue.

Another major issue that will be highlighted in the poll campaign is development. On this count too, the ruling government has done a good job and earned the people's appreciation. In fact, much before the now popular MNREGA scheme, the Assam government has successfully formed over one lakh self help groups and provided them with a bank loan in rural and urban areas. The state government has also launched many social welfare schemes, health and education schemes which have yielded positive results.

All these developments have apparently neutralised the anti-incumbency factor for the ruling Congress government in Assam. This internal analysis by the Congress leadership coupled with reports of sharp division in the opposition camp have emboldened them to go it alone in the forthcoming elections without having any pre-poll alliance with the Bodoland People's Front. However, a post-poll alliance was not ruled out by the state Congress president Bhubaneswar Kalita.

The BPF is currently an alliance partner in the ruling Congress-led government.

The opposition Bharatiya Janata Party and the regional party Asom Gana Parishad alongwith the All India United Democratic Front, Communist Party of India-Marxist, Communist Party of India and other smaller parties have made several attempts to forge a formidable alliance against the ruling Congress. But all their efforts went in vain mainly due to major differences on seat sharing.

As a result, both BJP and the AGP are contesting almost all the seats barring few constituencies where the top leaders of both the parties are planning to file nominations. The fragmentation of votes will certainly help the ruling Congress to sail through in many marginal seats.

The opposition has decided to highlight corruption, unemployment, large number of Bangladeshi settlements besides other issues in the poll campaign. By all indications, disunity and internal bickerings among different opposition parties will boost the prospects of the Congress candidates. However, it remains to be seen how the polarisation takes place before polling day.