Not So Near, Yet Not So Far From BJP

Call it the art of staying rooted yet bending with prevailing political winds.
With Telangana going to the polls in December, and assembly and Lok Sabha elections in Andhra and Odisha scheduled next year, what factors have influenced parties' recent moves?

In 2018, when the Telugu Desam Party from Andhra Pradesh unsuccessfully moved a no-confidence motion against the Narendra D Modi government over the delay in granting special category status to the state, neighbouring Odisha's ruling Biju Janata Dal staged a walkout, claiming that the four years of the National Democratic Alliance government were as bad as the previous Congress-led regime.

Fast forward to 2023, and the TDP, its rival and the ruling party in the southern state, the YSR Congress Party, and the BJD not only opposed the no-confidence motion moved by the INDIA bloc, but also favoured the Delhi Services Bill, a departure from the equidistance stance they claimed to maintain.

While the Bharat Rashtra Samithi in Telangana continues to remain 'equidistant', the other parties have readily supported the Bharatiya Janata Party's causes when needed.

This is significant as they together hold 50 of the 63 Lok Sabha seats in the three states.

With Telangana going to polls in December, and assembly and Lok Sabha elections in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha slated simultaneously next year, what factors influenced these regional parties' recent moves in Parliament?

BJD's change of heart?

A couple of days after the BJD helped the Centre clear the Delhi Services Bill in the Lok Sabha, Home Minister Amit A Shah flew to Odisha to lay the foundation stone for a highway project, alongside Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik.

Shah did not miss the opportunity to praise Patnaik for his 'constructive cooperation in upholding cooperative federalism'.

Making the stand clear over the no-trust vote, BJD leader Pinaki Misra said his party was 'grateful' to the Centre for fulfilling the 'just demands', such as mineral royalty revision, removal of export tax on iron ore and manganese, an international airport in Puri, and the Jagannath Puri Heritage Corridor.

Shah told BJP leaders during his visit that the Modi government sanctioned Rs 18.83 trillion as grants to the state, against Rs 2.93 trillion during the Congress regime.

Is the greater central assistance reason enough for the BJD's change of heart? Veteran journalist Sandeep Sahu partly agreed: "The fear of central agencies pouncing on BJD leaders is also a striking factor."

The renewed bonhomie, which became apparent when the BJD helped Ashwini Vaishnaw enter the Rajya Sabha as a BJP candidate in 2019, might not alter the electoral equation in the state, as Misra said the 'support for the Centre won't change the BJD's fight against the BJP in Odisha'.

Unlike the BJP, which lacks a robust electoral footprint beyond western Odisha (five of its eight MPs are from this region), the Congress has a statewide presence.

For the BJP, a BJD win comes with the silver lining that the Congress does not gain.

Rivalry plays out in Andhra

The Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP snapped ties with the NDA a year before the 2019 elections over 'injustice' meted out to the state.

Riding on the anti-incumbency and 'indirect help by the BJP', the Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSRCP formed the government with 151 MLAs in the 175-member assembly.

In the Lok Sabha polls, it secured 22 of the 25 seats, leaving the TDP with only three.

The TDP is seeking the BJP's support through Jana Sena Party chief Pawan Kalyan to prevent the Jagan government's return, but despite Naidu's meetings with the prime minister and Shah, the BJP is yet to allow its return to the NDA.

The YSRCP is not inclined to join the Congress-led alliance, given its not-so-positive experience in the past.

Speaking against the no-trust motion, YSRCP member P V Midhun Reddy argued his party did not want to engage in the 'tussle between two alliances'.

Political commentator Purushottam Reddy says the YSRCP's strategy was to support the Centre and secure maximum benefits for the state.

The Centre sanctioned Rs 10,460 crore (Rs 104.60 billion) in May, the highest for Andhra Pradesh since the bifurcation.

In June, it released Rs 12,911 crore (Rs 129.11 billion) for the Polavaram project.

The developments hinting at the YSRCP's pro-NDA stand might excite the BJP, which is trying to enter the state.

As in Odisha, so in Andhra Pradesh, a YSRCP victory ensures the Congress does not gain.

A lonely battle for BRS

In January, K Chandrasekhar Rao changed the name of his Telangana Rashtra Samithi to BRS and united some parties for a Third Front. His hope was, however, short-lived.

A landslide for the Congress in Karnataka in May 2023, to which Muslim vote consolidation contributed significantly, has given the BRS jitters in Telangana, where the community holds the key to at least 40 assembly seats.

With the Congress preparing to replicate its Karnataka performance and the BJP railing against the KCR government's 'pro-Muslim policies', the BRS is fighting a lonely battle, despite having 102 MLAs in the 119-member assembly and nine of the 17 MPs in the Lok Sabha.

While the BJP accused the state government of misusing Rs 5,221 crore (Rs 52.21 billion) of central funds, the BRS talked about a 'false assertion in the Lok Sabha' that the Centre provided Rs 86,000 crore (Rs 860 billion) for the Kaleshwaram project.

Meanwhile, the BJP challenge in Telangana has weakened because of infighting, and Rao's extensive campaigning in Maharashtra has had the Maha Vikas Aghadi parties term the BRS as the 'BJP's B-team'.

In Telangana, as in Odisha and Andhra, a comprehensive win for the BRS in a three-cornered contest splitting anti-incumbency votes would not only mean fewer gains for the BJP but also for the Congress.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com