Monsoon to hit Kerala in next 48 hours: IMD

The southwest monsoon is expected to hit the Kerala coast in the next 48 hours after a delay of four days, the India Meteorological department said on Thursday.

The Indian Meteorological Department said that there has been an increase in the rainfall activity in Kerala and monsoon could hit the state anytime now.

Monsoon hitting Kerala marks the official onset of the rainy season in the country. The normal onset date of monsoon in India is June 1. The MeT department has initially said that monsoon would hit the southern state on May 30, but later revised it to June 5, blaming its “sluggish” pace.

“The trough of low over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep area is more marked today. Under its influence, rainfall activity over Kerala has increased.

“Winds flow over Southeast Arabian sea are also becoming favourable. The conditions continue to be favourable for onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala during next 48 hours,” the IMD said in a statement.

Private forecasting agency Skymet also said that rainfall is likely to get intense in the next two days.

“While the rainfall remained minimal in the last couple of days over Kerala, it picked up in the last 24 hours. Rainfall activity is likely to get intense in the next two days and more showers are expected over the state and adjoining parts. As we move ahead, more parts of Kerala are likely to be bathed by good pre-monsoon rain, ushering in monsoon in India,” Skymet said.

The MeT department declares onset of monsoon if 60 per cent of the available 14 stations -- Minicoy, Amini, Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Kollam, Allapuzha, Kottayam, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Thalassery, Kannur, Kudulu and Mangalore -- report rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for two consecutive days. It also has coupled with wind pattern and its speed.

Agriculture, which employs about 60 per cent of the country’s population, is heavily dependent on the monsoon as only 40 per cent of the cultivable area is under irrigation.

Last year, the country had received 12 per cent less rains, which hit production of grains, cotton and oilseeds. Due to poor monsoon, agriculture growth stood at 0.2 per cent in the 2014-15 fiscal.

In April last year, the MeT department made its initial forecast of 95 per cent, which was later revised to 93 per cent in June. However, by the end of the season, India received only 88 per cent.