Why BJP is in a win-win situation in Seemandhra

The Bharatiya Janata Party is ready to break its alliance with the Telugu Desam Party if it means getting more numbers from a tie-up with YSR Congress chief Jaganmohan Reddy. Vicky Nanjappa reports

Seemandhra which polled on Wednesday saw an impressive voter turn out with around 76 per cent voting recorded.

Political pundits in Andhra Pradesh say that YSR Congress chief Jaganmohan Reddy has an edge and is likely to put up a good show both in the assembly and parliamentary segments. Welfare of farmers and a massive sympathy wave in the rural areas are the basis of the voting pattern, say experts.

Jagan and his mother Vijayamma seem to have convinced the voter. While Jagan managed to assure the welfare of the rural sector, his mother ensured that the party received all the sympathy votes.

Telugu Desam Party president Chandrababu Naidu tried to do the same, but the people don’t seem to trust him on this issue -- he’s seen more as an urban leader.

Naidu is hoping he will get the urban votes where he has a stronger presence. The TDP is aware that if Seemandhra has voted only for development, Naidu will be the man they would want as chief minister.

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The other aspect the TDP hopes will work in its favour is its alliance partner the Bharatiya Janata Party. Naidu has been doing his best to convince voters that if he is elected, the state would benefit, as he would have a part to play in the Union government, which will be led by the BJP.

Internal surveys by political parties in Seemandhra say the YSR Congress Party is likely to be the biggest gainer. But what will the BJP do in case it falls short?

For the BJP it is a win-win situation. Jaganmohan Reddy has offered to support any party that will form the government at the Centre. Jagan, too, is desperate to be part of the central government.

Sources in the BJP say they are ready to break the alliance with the TDP if it means getting more numbers from a tie-up with Jagan. There is no question of having both Jagan and Naidu in the same government at the Centre, as both parties would not agree to it.

YSR Congress leaders say that an internal survey indicates the party will win anything between 110 and 120 seats, but experts say that a more realistic number would be 95 in the 175 member assembly, where the magic figure is 86.

The TDP on the other hand feels it will win 90 seats, but experts feel that it may end up with just 62. The independents and the Congress together are expecting 5 to 6 seats.

In the Lok Sabha segment the YSR Congress says it would get 18 to 20 seats, but experts say a more realistic figure would be 14-15.

Image: (From left) BJP's national treasurer Piyush Goyal, BJP national spokesperson Prakash Javadekar with TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu and other leaders after they announced  their alliance in Hyderabad. 

Photograph: SnapsIndia