Kumaraswamy has assured that he will win the trust vote, but he has also maintained that he will maintain an equal distance from both the BJP and the Congress.
Even if Kumaraswamy gets the support of independents and the Janata Dal-United, he will not be able to form the government as he needs to have at least 113 of the 226 seats in the Assembly. The JD-S now has 57 seats in the Legislative Assembly, which means it will need another 56 seats to gain a majority. Even with the support of independents and the Janata Dal-United, the JD-S will only have 70 seats, thus falling short of 43 seats.
The possibility of extensive horse trading cannot be ruled out in the time of such political uncertainty. In fact, BJP chief Sadanada Gowda has stated, "I have information that at least 60 per cent of the JD-S MLAs were not in favour of ditching the BJP. They may support us, but I cannot tell you when and how that will happen,"
When Kumaraswamy formed the coalition government with the BJP, he had a core team of young MLAs who were looking forward to a long stint in politics. These JD-S leaders feel that it was not a good idea to break away from the BJP, as it could have a bad bearing on their political careers.
On a truck with the Congress, the JD-S will wait for the Congress to make the first move. Meanwhile, the Congress has been instructed by its party high command to make every possible effort to keep the BJP out of power. Hence the possibility of the Congress providing outside support to the JD-S cannot be ruled out.
The BJP has only two options. It can either patch up with the JD-S or opt for mid-term polls. Currently, the sympathy factor is in favour of the BJP and that is why the party wants the elections to be held immediately. For the BJP, even a two month delay in holding the elections could prove to be fatal as the sympathy factor may wear out by then.