JD-S, Cong will move in if Yeddy trust vote fails

The crisis in the 27-month-old Bharatiya Janata Party government in Karnataka has rival political parties on their feet. Meanwhile, the BJP is working out permutations and combinations to ensure that Chief Minister B S Yeddyurappa proves his majority before the October 11 trust vote.

For now, the Congress and Janata Dal-S have decided to adopt a wait-and-watch policy. Although it is rumoured that the JD-S has engineered the turmoil, they are not expected to swoop in till they get a clearer picture of the situation on October 11.

The Congress, meanwhile, has decided to stay away and is too busy protecting its members of the legislative assembly from being poached. Worried that some of its power-hungry MLAs may switch sides since the Congress has not been at the helm of affairs in Karnataka for years now, the party has moved them to resorts on the outskirts of the city.

Interestingly, none of the political parties wants an election as they are all unaware how the public would react to an early poll.

The BJP camp is buzzing with activity, with all its national leaders holding meetings to dish out a formula to save the government. While the primary solution is to win back the trust of the rebel BJP MLAs causing the crisis, the party also realises that with the pressure mounting the rebels are getting more aggressive and are expected to step up their demands. 

The first option for the struggling Yeddyurappa camp is to make compromises and offer powerful portfolios to the rebels. But will the rebels agree? This seems unlikely, with rumour mills abuzz about the rebels being paid Rs 30 crore each by an outsider pulling the strings.

But the dissident BJP ministers find themselves facing another dilemma. They are well aware that if Yeddyurappa fails to prove his majority and if the government falls, the only option they are left with is to join the JD-S-Congress combine. However, most rebels have expressed have their reservations about being part of any Congress alliance since they will be shunted out after six months. At the same time, the dissident ministers are aware that the BJP, though desperate, is capable of fighting this war to the finish.    

The party leadership on the other hand is aware that the rebels may try to take maximum advantage of the crisis.As of now it appears that the rebels will be content with cabinet berths and a change in leadership. However, the party high command will have to be extremely cautious while effecting a change in the leadership since this may put the Yeddyurappa faction off, only to spell more doom for the BJP in Karnataka.

Karnataka minister for rural development and panchayat raj Jagadish Shettar seems to be the best option available with the BJP since he shares a cordial relationship with both the rebels and the Yeddy camp. However, convincing Yeddyurappa to step down will be no piece of cake for the high command.

Another option, which the BJP can look at, is to disqualify the 14 rebel MLAs for anti-party activities. In case they take this aggressive stand, the fight on October 11 will be a nail-biting one. With 14 MLAs gone, the strength of the assembly will be reduced to 210 and for a party to have a simple majority it needs 106 MLAs. In such a scenario, the BJP will have a strength of 103 MLAs, while the JD-S and the Congress together will have 101. This will put the ball in the court of the six Independents, making their vote extremely crucial. As of now, it appears that they will support the JD-S and the Congress. The Independents, who stood by Yeddyurappa to form the government, feel betrayed as he did not offer them any berths in the current cabinet reshuffle. 

For the BJP, disqualifying the MLAs may be the best bet if they are unable to make truce with them. But at the same time they need to pacify at least three Independents to side with them during the crucial trust vote. If the rebels are not disqualified, these ministers will vote against the government, which would mean the end of the Yeddyurappa regime. 
Though the Reddy brothers of Bellary -- Janardhan and Karunakar -- are trying to play role of peace-brokers, their effect seems to be minimal.      

Although Janardhan was sent as an emissary, talks failed since the rebels feel betrayed by the duo. When the Reddys engineered the crisis last year, all these rebels were with them. However, they feel that once the Reddys' demands were fulfilled they ignored the rebels.