Is Congress trying to woo Nitish Kumar?

The Congress is trying to send a message to Bihar's Chief Minister and Janata Dal - United leader Nitish Kumar. It is: 'Come on over'.

The party is ready to dump its current allies at the centre, the Rashtriya Janata Dal and Lok Janshakti Party, ahead of the Bihar assembly elections. The Congress and the RJD contested last year's Lok Sabha elections separately, though they continue to be allies in the United Progressive Alliance at the Centre.

The crucial question: will the Congress, RJD and LJP have a seat adjustment, if not an alliance, in the assembly elections scheduled to be held before November this year?

If they do that, there is no way Nitish Kumar can dump the Bharatiya Janata Party and cross over to the Congress. If the latter happens, it would signal a sea change in Bihar politics.

For that to happen, the Congress has to indicate some distancing from the RJD-LJP duo. At this point, there are some signals that all the parties will contest independently of each other. With the All India Congress Committee in-charge of the state, Jagdish Tytler, and state party president Anil Sharma recently meeting party president Sonia Gandhi and making a strong pitch for not supporting either RJD or Ram Vilas Paswan's LJP for the Rajya Sabha elections in the state, there are signs that political forces are recalibrating their positions in the state.

The poll process for the Upper House is set to start there on May 31 and conclude on June 17. The Congress has only 10 members in the state assembly, which has a strength of 243. RJD has 56 seats and  Paswan's LJP has 12. Five RS seats would be vacant, in the wake of the retirement of R K Dhawan (Congress), Subhas Yadav (RJD), George Fernandes and Ezaj Ali (JD-U) and Rajiv Pratap Rudy (BJP).

Dhawan had won with RJD support when both parties were allies.

As many as 43 votes are required to win one Rajya Sabha seat. As the numbers stand, RJD can get one on its own. The Congress can retain its seat only if it strikes a deal with the LJP-RJD combine and also solicits independents' votes.

Paswan, who lost his own seat in the last Lok Sabha election, is also likely to contest. The Congress has not been as vocal against Paswan as it has been against the RJD chief in the state.

A senior Congress leader from Bihar, however, said party leaders in the state are in favour of maintaining equidistance from both Lalu Prasad and Paswan, keeping in mind the party's long-term electoral prospects. "We should neither contest the election with their help, nor support them," he said.

Both Paswan and Prasad have been maintaining their RJD-LJP alliance was rock-solid and would continue. The Congress had an alliance with the RJD in the state and the Centre for almost a decade, but broke away during the Lok Sabha elections last year on the issue of seat sharing.

Prasad's party, however, extended outside support to the UPA-II government after elections. Before the Jharkhand elections in November last year, Lalu Prasad had appealed to Gandhi for an alliance in the tribal state, but Congress preferred a new ally, Babulal Marandi's Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajatantrik, to him.