Quoting a classified briefing at the Pentagon by commander Gen George W Casey Jr earlier this week, The New York Times said the number of American combat brigades in Iraq is projected to decrease to five or six from the current level of 14 by December 2007.
If executed, the plan could have considerable political significance. The first reductions would take place before this fall's Congressional elections, while even bigger cuts might come before the 2008 presidential election.
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Under the plan, the daily said, the first reductions would involve two combat brigades that would rotate out of Iraq in September without being replaced. Combat brigades, which generally have about 3,500 troops, do not make up the bulk of the 127,000-member American force in Iraq.
The paper quotes US officials as saying that General Casey's briefing identifies four main threats in Iraq: Al-Qaeda, criminal groups, Iranian support for violent Shiite organisations and ethnic and sectarian strife over the distribution of power.
In the general's briefing, the paper said future American role in Iraq is divided into three phases. The next 12 months was described as a period of stabilisation. The period from the summer of 2007 through the summer of 2008 was described as a time when emphasis would be on restoration of the Iraqi government's authority. The period from the summer of 2008 though the summer of 2009 was cast as one in which the Iraqi government would be increasingly self-reliant.
US officials emphasised that any withdrawals would depend on continued progress, including development of competent Iraqi security forces, a reduction in Sunni Arab hostility towards the new Iraqi government and the assumption insurgency will not spread beyond Iraq's six central provinces.
Even so, the Times said, the projected troop withdrawals in 2007 are more significant than many experts had expected.
Estimating the precise number of American troops that may be deployed in Iraq at the end of 2007 is difficult, one officer was quoted as saying. A reduction of eight combat brigades would equal about 28,000 troops. But that does not mean reduction in the remainder would be proportional: troops would be needed to help with logistics, intelligence, training and air strikes.
General Casey's briefing, the daily said, remained a closely held secret and word of the briefing comes after a week in which the American troop presence in Iraq was stridently debated in Congress, with Democratic initiatives to force troop withdrawals defeated in the Senate.
The commander met this week with Defence Secretary Donald H Rumsfeld and Gen Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. On Friday, Casey and Rumsfeld met President Bush. A senior White House official was quoted as saying that General Casey did not present a formal plan for Bush's approval but rather a concept of how the US might move forward after consulting with Iraqi authorities.
"The recent conversations that have taken place are all designed to formulate our thinking in concert with the new Iraqi government," the official told the paper but declined to discuss specific cuts. "What this process allows is for General Casey to engage with the new Maliki government so it can go from a notional concept to a practical plan of security implementation over the next two years."
'Early Iraq withdrawal would be terrible mistake'
Proponents of General Casey's approach described it as a carefully synchronised plan to turn over authority for security to the new Iraqi government. Although the planning for 2006 is advanced, officials told the daily the projected withdrawals for 2007 are more of a forecast of what may be possible given current trends than a hard timeline.
But critics of the Bush administration's handling of the war question whether the ambitious goals for withdrawing troops are realistic given the difficulties in maintaining order there. The insurgency has proven resilient despite several big military operations over the years, and previous forecasts of significant troop withdrawals have yet to materialise.
Now, after criticising Democratic lawmakers for trying to legislate a timeline for withdrawing troops, sceptics say the Bush administration seems to have its own private schedule albeit one that can be adjusted as events unfold, the report said.