In UP, a wave is missing

Many political watchers give their prediction quite confidently of a coalition government.
But nobody's certain on the nature of the coalition, reports Nivedita Mukherji.

An estimated crowd of 10,000 people was out in the scorching sun in Jhansi for quite a few hours on Sunday, February 19, as Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav and Congress party scion Rahul Gandhi showcased their poll partnership.

It was the last opportunity for the two leaders of the coalition, of rivals-turned-friends, to catch voters on a holiday before the fourth phase of Uttar Pradesh's legislative assembly election on Thursday.

Jhansi is at the centre of Bundelkhand, the region comprising districts in both UP and Madhya Pradesh.

Full-page advertisements in local newspapers had put the time of the Samajwadi-Congress rally, the first in the region, at 11 am.

As a blue and yellow helicopter circled over the large ground of the Government Inter College well past 1 pm, driving the crowd into a frenzy, copies of Bollywood songs in praise of Akhilesh and Rahul got louder.

It took, however, more than an hour later before the two finally landed at a helipad close to the rally, after crisscrossing several other constituencies, such as Chirgaon and Maurani, before flying off to a few more.

Rahul in a white kurta and blue jeans, Akhilesh in a black jacket with white kurta-pyjama, teamed with his SP's red cap.

Many political watchers give their prediction quite confidently, of a coalition government for sure, as there's no perceptible wave, unlike the 2014 Lok Sabha election.

Though, nobody's quite as certain on the nature of the coalition.

The SP-Congress pact is a talking point in every gathering around this city, with the speculation that it could have hit the Bharatiya Janata Party more than Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party, especially after the impact of demonetisation.

Some put bets on a likely triangular alliance between the SP, Congress and BSP after the results.

Some speak of a possible deal between the BJP and BSP, against the pre-poll coalition of the other two majors.

Number crunching by people across age groups and professions indicates the belief of no clear winner this time.

Also, that the Akhilesh-Rahul tie-up has upset a lot of political math.

Beyond electoral arithmetic, several yardsticks are being tossed around to bet on probable winners.

Who's campaigning at which venue, to what kind of crowd and for how many constituencies top the list.

A day before the Akhilesh-Rahul rally, Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh (also a former UP chief minister) and Mayawati were here; she drew an exceptionally large crowd and that is usual for her, a police officer said.

The number for Mayawati's latest rally in Jhansi varies from 20,000 to 100,000 at the Exhibition Ground, depending on who is giving the account.

At least 200 policemen are deployed for each of these rallies and sometimes the number is more, as with Rahul Gandhi's.

IMAGE: Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav campaign in UP. Photograph: Pawan Kumar/Reuters