How close were the 5-state election results really?

An analysis of seats across the five states shows that the race was won on tighter margins than five years ago, except for Punjab and Uttarakhand.

The results of the assembly elections in five states announced on Thursday saw the Bharatiya Janata Party securing power in three states, falling one short of the majority mark in Goa, and the Aam Aadmi Party winning Punjab.

A Business Standard analysis of seats across these states shows that the race was won on tighter margins than five years ago, except for Punjab and Uttarakhand.

The median margin of victory was 1,991 votes in Goa in 2022, compared to 3,946 in 2017.

Ten seats were won with a margin of fewer than 1,000 votes.

Moreover, six seats were won with less than 500 votes margin.

In contrast, last time, only two seats were won with less than 500 votes margin, and seven were won with less than 1,000 votes margin.

In Manipur, the median margin of victory was 1,578 votes in 2022, compared to 1,849 in 2017.

Candidates were leading in ten seats with a less than 500 votes margin, and 22 were with less than 1,000 votes margin.

In 2017, the corresponding numbers were 10 and 18, for less than 500 votes and 1,000 votes margins, respectively.

Uttarakhand witnessed the median margin of victory increase from 6,717 to 7,333.

In terms of seats, there was a status quo with candidates leading in two seats with less than 500 votes margins and leading in five with less than 1,000 votes margin.

Punjab was the only state where the number of seats won with lesser margins declined.

Only 16 seats were won with less than a 5,000 votes margin, compared to 26 last year. The median margin of victory went up from 14,954 to 19,873.

The number of candidates leading in seats with less than 5,000 votes increased to 56 in 2022 till the paper went into publication.

In 2017, 48 seats were won with less than a 5,000 votes margin.

The median margin of victory went down from 25,759 to 18,144 votes.

Further analysis of election-related data shows that in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Punjab, the vote share of the top two parties increased compared to last.

In Uttar Pradesh, the vote share of the top two parties increased from 61.9 to 73.4 per cent between 2017 and 2022.

On the other hand, in Manipur and Goa, the share of the top two political parties declined compared to the last assembly elections.

The vote share of top two parties in Goa declined from 60.9 per cent to 56.8 per cent.

The BJP increased its vote share in all states except Uttarakhand, where despite winning the election, the party’s vote share declined from 46.5 per cent to 44.3 per cent.

The Congress’ vote share declined in all states except Uttarakhand.