The BJP's nationwide vote share saw its steepest decline in Rajasthan, falling by 9.23% from 2019, resulting in the loss of 11 seats, reports Prakash Bhandari.
In the lead-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party in Rajasthan set its sights on an impressive hat-trick: Winning all 25 of the state's seats for the third consecutive time, having swept them in both 2014 and 2019.
The party's confidence was initially bolstered by the lack of strong candidates from the Congress, as senior leaders like Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot opted not to contest, leading to significant challenges in fielding viable candidates.
When candidates were found, some refused to run, leaving the Congress scrambling to fund and support those willing to contest.
The dynamics shifted dramatically when the BJP decided not to field two-term sitting MP Rahul Kaswan, a prominent Jat leader from Churu.
The decision to overlook Kaswan, despite his and his family's deep-rooted connections with the BJP, alienated the Jat community, a crucial electoral bloc.
Historically, the Jats had been strong supporters of the BJP, a relationship cultivated by leaders like Bhairon Singh Shekhawat. However, feeling betrayed by the snub to Kaswan, the Jats realigned their support towards the Congress.
The Congress strategically capitalised on the BJP's faltering support among key demographics.
The reserved seats of Bharatpur, Dholpur-Karauli, Ganganagar, and Dausa saw strong performances from the Congress, attributed largely to Sachin Pilot's efforts to unite the Meena and Gujjar communities, reminiscent of his late father Rajesh Pilot's strategy.
This unity translated into significant wins in Tonk-Sawaimadhopur, Dausa (ST), Bharatpur, and Dholpur-Karauli.
The BJP's nationwide vote share saw its steepest decline in Rajasthan, falling by 9.23% from 2019, resulting in the loss of 11 seats.
Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot played crucial roles in the Congress's campaign.
Gehlot was instrumental in strategic decisions, such as supporting Hanuman Beniwal of the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party in Nagaur and leveraging local dynamics to challenge the BJP effectively.
Meanwhile, Pilot's leadership and ability to galvanise support among diverse communities proved pivotal in several constituencies.
Former chief minister Gehlot's influence, however, appeared to be waning. His son, Vaibhav Gehlot, faced a significant defeat in Jalore-Sirohi, indicating a decline in the family's political stronghold.
Observers suggested that for the Congress to remain competitive in future elections, it would need to focus on leaders like Sachin Pilot and Govind Singh Dotasara, the current Pradesh Congress Committee president, who demonstrated effective leadership during this campaign.
Despite winning 14 seats, the BJP faced a considerable reduction in its vote share across Rajasthan, with a notable exception in Jaipur where it saw a small increase of 2.84%.
The diminished support in traditionally strong regions highlighted the party's growing disconnect with key voter groups, particularly the Jats, who felt marginalised by the BJP's internal politics.
In rural and semi-urban areas, the BJP's vote share decline was significant. The Congress's ability to communicate effectively with these communities about issues like reservations helped them secure crucial victories.
The BJP's heavy reliance on Narendra D Modi's popularity seemed less effective, as voters appeared resistant to perceived overreach and aggressive rhetoric.
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Rajasthan marked a significant shift in the state's political landscape.
The BJP's failure to maintain its sweeping dominance from previous elections, combined with the Congress's strategic gains and voter realignment, underscored the complexities of regional politics.
The Congress's resurgence, driven by community-focused strategies and resilient local leadership, staved off the BJP's attempt at a historic hat-trick of sweeps, signalling a possible realignment of political forces in the state.
Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/Rediff.com
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