Why opinion polls predict an AAP victory in Delhi

Kejriwal in his public meetings took up issues, which has garnered him a strong support in Delhi

Almost all opinion polls have predicted a victory in Saturday’s Delhi assembly election for the Aam Aadmi Party. After suggesting a Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party win in last year’s Lok Sabha elections and all other states that went to polls since then -- nearly correctly -- why could these opinion polls this time be in favour of a party born a little more than two years ago? This could largely be attributed to AAP’s comeback campaigning.

Sensing a breakaway among its core middle-class supporters, AAP had started its election campaign much before opponents BJP and the Congress, and the top leaders of the party have held close to 700 jan sabhas.

The party had begun holding public meetings since December 1 last year; its convenor Arvind Kejriwal has since held 110 such meetings across the national capital. The planners in the party say they had worked on the VS-JS (Vidhan Sabha-Jan Sabha) strategy. “Our focus has been on reaching the public in each assembly constituency, and winning each of them. Instead of big rallies, we wanted Arvind Kejriwal to be in front of the public, and not otherwise,” says Ashish Talwar, AAP’s Delhi campaign head.

The party claims to have reached an average 6,000-7,000 people in each assembly constituency with Kejriwal’s sabhas, and spent an average Rs 35,000 on each of his public meetings.

AAP had set up four advanced teams to monitor Kejriwal’s public meetings. The party says these teams conducted site visits three-four days before each public meeting and checked if the AAP volunteers had made proper arrangements, and whether or not people were aware about the rally.

• For full coverage: Delhi Battleground

The main theme for each public meeting was centered on AAP’s governance during its 49-day rule after the previous Assembly election. It was recognised the one thing that had upset AAP supporters was Kejriwal’s sudden resignation after failing to pass the Lok Pal legislation. After the party’s dismal performance in the Lok Sabha elections -- AAP lost in all of Delhi’s seven Lok Sabha seats -- Kejriwal and the party admitted their mistake and were seen apologising to the people of Delhi. In almost all his public meetings, Kejriwal explained to the people the reason behind his resignation.

Besides, in his meetings, Kejriwal took up issues that drew a strong support in the city -- rising prices of food and medicines, BJP’s loose stance on electricity and water rates, and security of women.

For a change in image from a ‘dharna’ party to a ‘dialogue’ party, AAP launched ‘Delhi Dialogue’, a forum through which it aimed to reach out to the middle class, youth, women, industrialists, professionals and the rural population. Since November last year, Kejriwal held seven such events on issues like youth, women’s safety, education and health, unauthorised colonies, electricity and water issues, governance, Lok Pal, and ‘swaraj’. The party prepared its manifesto on the basis of discussions with the masses.

“AAP has generated positivity among citizens of Delhi through its Delhi Dialogue. There were doubts on whether we could govern, and we addressed all such doubts through the forum. We gave a detailed blueprint to the public, for the first time” AAP leader Yogendra Yadav says.

The architect of this forum was journalist-turned-politician Ashish Khaitan. “Apart from a constituency-wise reach-out, we thought we could extend our hand to various groups and hear their problems,” says Meera Sanyal, a former top banker and one of the organisers of the Delhi Dialogue.

The party says it has held only one mega event in Delhi -- Kejriwal’s nomination rally. “Around 35,000 people thronged the streets; he was not able to file his nomination that day because of the crowd,” Talwar says.

Besides this, the party held various innovative campaigns through dance, music and magic shows. Its women’s wing organised a motorbike rally in Krishna Nagar, from where BJP has fielded its chief ministerial candidate Kiran Bedi. This rally was led by actor-turned-politician Gul Panag and joined by other woman leaders, on two-wheelers.

AAP claims it has a strength of 40,000 volunteers in Delhi -- and 15,000 others from outside the capital joined them -- to campaign for the polls. Among the star campaigners were Kumar Vishwas, Sanjay Singh, Vishal Dadlani and Gul Panag.

Targeting the youth, party’s 16-member social media cell successfully ran campaigns like the “Muffler Man”, besides ‘selfie’ campaigns, and launched an application called ‘Mango’ featuring pre-recorded messages from party leaders.

Will Kejriwal’s broom wield its magic for a second time in Delhi, or will it be the Modi wave continuing to sweep the city? Wait until Tuesday for the answer.