Can Kejriwal Reconnect With Delhi Voters?

As leaders in both the BJP and Congress concede, neither has within their parties a leader to match Arvind Kejriwal's charisma in Delhi.

During the 154 days that Aam Aadmi Party chief Arvind Kejriwal spent in jail this year on charges of corruption, he was defiant about not quitting as chief minister of Delhi.

But on September 15, 2024, less than two days after he had walked out of Tihar jail, Kejriwal announced he would quit his Constitutional post, and seek vindication of his innocence in the people's court.

As the term of the Delhi assembly is set to end on February 23, the assembly polls in Delhi are less than five months away.

Kejriwal asked the Centre to conduct the assembly elections in Delhi alongside those in Maharashtra, which are scheduled for November.

He said that neither his former deputy, Manish Sisodia, who in August walked out of jail after 17 months of incarceration, nor he would be the chief minister until the assembly polls.

As explanations for Kejriwal's surprise decision, sources in AAP pointed to the Bharatiya Janata Party's recent demand asking the Centre to sack the Delhi government and impose President's Rule (under Article 339AB of the Constitution).

But it stemmed mostly from apprehensions, particularly after Kejriwal consulted his lawyers, that if he were to continue as the CM, the probe agencies could file a corruption case related to allegations of corruption in the construction of the chief minister's bungalow.

By quitting his post and seeking validation from the electorate of Delhi, Kejriwal will campaign among the people to reclaim his image as an anti-corruption crusader, but also give his successor Atishi Marlena the time to roll out welfare schemes, AAP sources said.

The bail restrictions put on him by the Supreme Court include restraining him from visiting his office or signing files unless those were meant for clearance and approval by the lieutenant governor.

Chief Minister Atishi will need to roll out the Delhi government's promise in its 2024-2025 Budget to provide an allowance of Rs 1,000 per month to eligible women aged 18 to 60.

Resignation as vindication

This isn't a first for Kejriwal to frame his politics into a 'corrupt versus incorruptible' binary and seek referendum in the 'people's court' when faced with a difficult political situation by resigning his post.

A decade back, on February 14, 2014, with the Election Commission a month away from announcing the schedule for that year's Lok Sabha elections, Kejriwal had quit as Delhi CM.

On that occasion, the Kejriwal-led AAP with 28 seats had formed a short-lived 49-day government with outside support from the Congress.

Kejriwal blamed the Congress and BJP for stalling his efforts to pass the Jan Lokpal Bill and resigned.

In the subsequent Lok Sabha polls, AAP contested over 400 seats but won four, all in Punjab.

AAP leaders said Kejriwal and his family would vacate the chief minister's bungalow in the next fortnight.

The BJP has led a campaign alleging corruption in the construction of the bungalow, or what it called the 'sheesh mahal' (glass palace), that the AAP government got constructed.

BJP Spokespersons Ajay Alok and Sudhanshu Trivedi pointed out that Kejriwal had asked the people of Delhi to vote for AAP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls if they felt he was not guilty.

The BJP won all seven seats in Delhi, with the AAP-Congress alliance failing to win any.

AAP has tended to perform better in the assembly polls in 2015 and 2020, which took place within 10 months of the Lok Sabha polls in 2014 and 2019, respectively.

AAP's success in Delhi has come at the cost of the Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party vote share.

However, AAP was jolted in the 2022 civic polls with the Congress recovering in areas inhabited by minorities.

For the Delhi assembly polls, there is a significant section in the Congress unwilling to have any truck with AAP, just as the two couldn't reach an agreement for the Haryana assembly polls.

But as leaders in both the BJP and Congress concede, neither of the two has within their parties a leader to match Kejriwal's charisma in Delhi.

The question is whether the Congress can revive in Delhi to regain some of its vote share, which would hurt AAP, or the BJP finally crosses the threshold of 38 to 39 per cent vote share to ensure that it can win enough seats to form the government, which would be its first since 1998.

AAP, meanwhile, would hope that Kejriwal rediscovers his connect with the electorate of Delhi on the back of the Delhi government's welfare schemes, comprising free water supply and electricity, and affordable education and health services.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com