'An Egypt-like revolution not possible in India'

After the downfall of Hosni Mubarak, Egypt is trying to chalk out a political course for itself, with the world watching closely.

The uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, which successfully ousted despotic governments, have given a ray of hope to other Arab nations. These nations are now demanding free, liberal and democratic governments through a 'peaceful revolution'.

Alim Naqvi, the editor of Urdu Times in Mumbai, does not believe that revolution is the right word to describe the recent uprisings in Egypt. "We cannot see it as a revolution. Only the face has changed, the structure remains unaltered. The country has been in a state of emergency for the last 30 years," he says.

Talking about the global impact of the uprising, he says, "It gives hope to other Muslim States. The pressure has been building up in Egypt; people couldn't bear the oppressive regime any more. The recent events give people in other Arab nations like Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Qatar an opportunity."

Speaking of its impact on India and Indian Muslims, he says, "Recently (Communist Party of India–Marxist General Secretary) Prakash Karat and (Bharatiya Janata Party President) Nitin Gadkari said that if the situation doesn't change, a similar uprising will follow in India. But keeping the political set-up in mind, I don't think it's possible here."

"Whenever a society undergoes a major change," explains Naqvi, "it has to be from the grass roots level, like (it happened) in Egypt. The common people (in Egypt) have realised their potential. If Indian Muslims don't realise their responsibilities, then they won't be able to realise their potential."

It is too early to jump to a conclusion about the situation in Egypt, says Irfan Engineer, director, Institute of Peace Studies and Conflict Resolution, but adds that democracy is a cause that needs to be supported.

"It is a change of regime; one never knows what will follow next. The good thing was that people mobilised themselves at Tahrir Square (in Cairo) for a long time, demanding democracy and opposing the oppressive regime. We don't know the shape of things to come; whether anything will change or not change or how far the army or the people will go (in achieving democracy). One thing is clear -- the genuine demand for democracy needs to be supported," he says.

Engineer agrees that the uprising would impact Egypt's neighbours, but points out that the land of the pyramid is different from other Islamic nations. He hopes that religious minorities like the Christian Coptic community, who enjoyed equal rights during Mubarak's regime, would remain safe post the uprising.

"To the credit of the earlier regime, it had ruthlessly suppressed fundamentalist elements. Egypt is not known for oppressing minorities. It is not like Pakistan and Bangladesh, which are known for being discriminatory against their minority population," he said.

"In a globalised world, we cannot expect any incident to be isolated. It is bound to have some impact on other parts. The uprising in Egypt has triggered similar movements in Libya and Jordan. It has also sent out an important message of peace," he said.

Talking about Indian Muslims and the unrest in the Arab world, he says, "There is no single opinion. Some sections are sceptical about the recent changes and are more supportive of Muslim States. They think all is hunky dory with Muslim States. (They think) the United States incites people against their respective regimes. However, the dominant opinion is in favour of democracy."

Engineer is quick to add, "I have not conducted any scientific survey. My assumption is based on informal discussions; I am not sure how representative these opinions are."

"During the uprising, the entire political structure got demolished," says Nida Ali, an engineering student from Hyderabad. "The country is in a state of unrest and it can easily succumb to any alternative force."

But she adds that this will have an impact as, "This has changed the notion of Arab people all across the world, they are no more seen as countries which are used to despotic governments. They have risen; hopefully the trend will follow in other despotic regimes as well."

Sharing his musings on whether India will witness a similar uprising, Mohammad Jalal, a taxi driver from Mumbai, believes, "The strength of an uprising is directly proportional to the level of anger simmering among the people. Wherever this anger spills over, people will rise up in revolt. People will not tolerate despotic regimes for long; once they have raised their voice the regime has to listen to them."

Altamish Ahmad, an engineering student from Hyderabad, says, "What does this revolution tell us? It tells us that there was discontent among people, their regimes were corrupt and simply that the masses have had enough. They wouldn't take it anymore, and the dictator had to go. It tells us that irrespective of the blind support granted by a superpower to an anti-people regime, it doesn't really have the power to prolong its tenure indefinitely. It shows us that the image of the Arab world -- as being one of a nomadic male-dominated society which is governed by autocratic regimes -- has to change."

Adds Ahmad, "The Egyptians as well as Tunisians toppled autocratic regimes. The revolutions were hi-tech and women took part in them vociferously. Does it tell us that the Arab world is shifting towards democracy? Definitely there is a tirade, but strangely the revolutions have taken place in countries that are partly democratic, but not in nations with absolute monarchies."

"This brings us to one important conclusion -- mass scale discontentment is a very necessary catalyst, which perhaps is at the moment absent in absolute monarchies," Adhmed continues. "So, we can say that the desire for a true democracy is perhaps not the biggest contributor to these revolutions."

Sharib A Ali, a student of media studies, seems to concerned about the representation of the revolution by the media. "What is surprising is the way the Western press, in fact the whole Western world -- taken aback by the democratic quality of these movements whether in action or demands, the very quality to which it has always claimed sole ownership throughout history -- has attempted to appropriate the revolution as its own too, as (if it is) a direct result of the influence and presence of the West in the Middle-East."