Ally Ready To Leave, But Mahagathbandhan Isn't Nervous

Five days before the Big Opposition rally in Patna, one of the Mahagathbandhan's allies will walk out of the ruling alliance.

Bihar's ruling Mahagathbandhan is not showing any nervousness over its ally, the Hindustani Awam Morcha, led by former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, likely to snap ties with the Grand Alliance this week.

Manjhi's son Santosh Kumar Suman set the tone by resigning as the SC/ST welfare minister in the Nitish Kumar government on Tuesday, June 13, 2023.

Nitish Kumar and his ally Lalu Prasad, who heads the Rashtriya Janata Dal, are confident that Manjhi's exit will not impact Mahagathbandhan candidates in next year's Lok Sabha election in Bihar.

The Mahagathbandhan is busy preparing for the mega rally in Patna on Friday, June 23, next to forge Opposition unity before the Lok Sabha elections.

Manjhi's HAM is likely to join the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance.

After the HAM leaves the Mahagathbandhan, the grand alliance will consist of six parties: Lalu's RJD, Nitish's Janata Dal-United, the Congress, the CPI(ML), the CPI-M and the CPI.

The BJP as of now has only one ally, the Lok Janshakti Party, headed by Union Minister Pasupati Kumar Paras, which has no MLAs in the state assembly.

Four smaller parties -- Chirag Paswan's LJP (Ramvilas), Upendra Kushwaha's Rastriya Lok Janta Dal, Mukesh Sahni's Vikassheel Insaan Party and Manjhi's HAM -- are likely to join the NDA in the weeks ahead.

"Top leaders of all four parties are keen to join the NDA and they are in touch with the BJP leadership. These four parties will be part of the NDA ahead of elections next year," says BJP leader Nikhil Anand.

Manjhi belongs to the Mushahar community, one of the most marginalised communities in the state.

His son Suman's resignation from the Bihar cabinet was promptly accepted by Nitish Kumar and neither Lalu nor his son Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav requested Manjhi to ask Suman to withdraw his resignation.

"The BJP is fully aware of Manjhi's weak following among his caste as the Mushahars are a divided community. The BJP is welcoming Manjhi to building a perception among the public and needs him to increase its number of allies in Bihar," explains a political commentator in Patna.

Manjhi met senior BJP leader Amit A Shah in mid April, after which speculation gained ground that he would change sides again, as he did in 2020.

NDA sources claim that the BJP has promised to appoint Manjhi governor of a north east state; it will also field his son Suman as the NDA candidate for the Gaya Lok Sabha seat. Gaya is Manjhi's home district.

The HAM has four MLAs in the state assembly.

Soon after the Opposition rally in Patna, BJP President J P Nadda, who did his schooling in Patna, and Shah will travel to Bihar to rally the party faithful.

BJP leaders say BJP supremo Narendra D Modi will also visit Bihar soon to galvanise the party base in the state.

The BJP is likely to contest 30 of Bihar's 40 Lok Sabha seats, with the rest contested by its five likely allies.

The BJP-led NDA (the JD-U was then a part of the alliance) won 32 Lok Sabha seats in the 2009 election. The RJD won 4 seats, the Congress 2, Independent 2.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the NDA won 31 seats. The JD-U contested the election by itself and won 2 seats, the RJD won 4 seats, the Congress 2 seats and the NCP 1 seat.

In 2019, when the JD-U and LJP joined hands with the BJP, the NDA won 39 of Bihar's 40 Lok Sabha seats; the other seat was won by the Congress.

Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/Rediff.com