As the poll dates approach fast, the scenario in Assam is getting clear gradually with the emergence of new political equations and combinations, though there is no formal alliance in place among the parties.
Election is being held in two phases in Assam -- on April 4 and 11.
The ruling Congress, which started the campaign from a position of advantage with the two main opposition parties -- Asom Gana Parishad and Bharatiya Janata Party -- failing to hold on to their alliance struck during 2009 parliamentary polls, now has to rethink its strategy.
The reason? The AGP and the BJP have exposed their covert understanding by not fielding strong candidates against each other's big leaders in the fray.
In such a scenario smaller political parties like Bodoland People's Front and All Indian United Democratic Front have become potential kingmakers after the polls.
This has prompted Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi to comment, "The people of Assam very well understand the secret understanding between the myopic regionalism of the AGP and the communal BJP. Both the parties will not be able to hoodwink voters this time too."
Gogoi maintains, "We have proved that during the last 10 years it is only the Congress that facilitated overall development in Assam and restored peace in the troubled state. The state's economy was at doldrums and law and order situation was at its worst when we came to power in 2001. Today, we are paying our employees regularly at par with their counterparts in Central government. We have constructed over 25,000 km black-topped roads and 3000 concrete bridges linking far flung villages during the last 10 years. We have brought so many militant groups, including the ULFA, to the negotiation. We are sure to win people's mandate once again."
The Congress has won two consecutive assembly elections in Assam since 2001 and is exuding confidence to win the third one in a row, capitalising mainly on a divided opposition camp. But the situation is not so rosy.
The prevailing dissent within the party over allotment of poll tickets has already prompted many senior Congress leaders, including former chief minister and minority leader Anuwara Taimur to leave the party in a huff.
Another factor that is bound to affect the Congress prospects is the in roads made by All Indian United Democratic Front -- an amalgamation of a dozen minority political groups led by perfume mogul Badruddin Ajmal.
The AIUDF created trouble for the Congress in 2006 polls as well by snatching nine seats from the Congress in its minority bastion. Realising the AIUDF threat, the Congress in its poll manifesto promises many sops for the minority communities.
Chief Minister Gogoi too has stopped his rhetoric against AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal who may get to play the role of kingmaker after the polls.
The regional AGP has decided not to have pre-poll alliance with the BJP fearing that it would drive away minority voters. An alliance between the two parties would have prevented a split in the anti-Congress votes.
In the 2006 assembly polls, AGP's vote share was over 20 per cent and that of the BJP was 12 per cent; their combined vote share was marginally more that Congress vote share of 31 per cent. The won 23 seats in while BJP won 10. The Congress kitty was 55
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