Will Nitin Gadkari Replace Modi?

'Whether somebody else can take up (Narendra Modi's position) the answer to it is yes but for that (to happen) some kind of crisis must come and in that crisis Modi must lose the (trust) vote.'
'Only then another candidate from the BJP can come and most likely it could be Nitin Gadkari because he enjoys the confidence (of the RSS as well as that of BJP MPs).'

In the concluding part of this interview with Prasanna D Zore/Rediff.com, veteran political analyst and former Congress Rajya Sabha MP Kumar Ketkar gazes at the crystal ball to answer whether, and under what circumstances, can there be a change of guard in the BJP.

• Part 1 of the Interview: 'Modi Is Not Yet a Legitimate PM'

The BJP had won 303 MPs in 2019 and now it has 240 MPs. Do you believe a challenger could emerge within the BJP against Narendra Modi give the BJP tally is 32 seats less than the 272 required for a simple majority in the Lok Sabha?

That is a possibility if Narendra Modi loses the confidence motion. If that happens then naturally a demand for another candidate (to represent the BJP in the Lok Sabha) could emerge and that could be naturally Nitin Gadkari.

In fact, as a journalist I can tell you there were moves already made by the RSS and some members of the BJP to keep Nitin Gadkari as a man waiting in the wings, with pads on (to replace Modi). That was already, sort of, in the offing; I cannot say it was decided but it was definitely in the offing.

So your question whether somebody else can take up (Modi's position) the answer to it is yes but for that (to happen) some kind of crisis must come and in that crisis Modi must lose the (trust) vote.

Only then another candidate from the BJP can come and most likely it could be Nitin Gadkari because he enjoys the confidence of (the RSS as well as that of BJP MPs).

But in the absence of that crisis no challenger would dare to cross swords with Modi?

I don't think there will be any banner of revolt. The BJP and RSS do not believe in such kind of rogue rebellions; they only talk in private, in hush-hush language about how they are unhappy with Modi.

I was a member of the Rajya Sabha and I have seen how BJP MPs privately complained against Modi and were unhappy with his leadership but they would not go public about it.

But RSS Sarsanghachalak Mohan Bhagwat has publicly taken the BJP and Modi to task by indicating that ahankar (hubris) was responsible for the BJP's poor showing in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

He (the RSS chief) has not named Modi; he has not named the party (BJP). He has broadly painted a canvas that it was the arrogance which made them (the BJP) lose the election (deprive them from winning 272 seats).

If you were to read Modi's mind now what could he be thinking as he looks forward to running a coalition government with allies like N Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar?

Frankly, I do not think Chandrababu and Nitish Kumar are millstones around Modi's neck. I don't think he (Modi) is actually worried about them (Naidu and Nitish Kumar).

Actually, Naidu and Nitish Kumar are dependent more on Modi than Modi is dependent on them.

For instance, if Chandrababu leaves tomorrow, he becomes a state leader. Even then Modi can survive. If Nitesh Kumar goes alone, still Modi can survive.

But if Nitesh Kumar and Naidu together plot something in association with the INDIA bloc then only Modi will be in trouble.

Modi knows that that is unlikely to happen altogether because Chandrababu and Nitish Kumar both have nothing to gain by joining the INDIA bloc. Therefore, I think Modi will survive.

Modi will be able to bulldoze a little. Modi will not be fundamentally affected negatively by Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu and certainly not from his members in the BJP.

I will not say that Modi is extremely weak. Modi is weak because the BJP is not having a full majority.

I will not be surprised by the same strategy of breaking other parties, splitting parties, driving and blackmailing individuals, he will be able to get the additional 33 seats to make his own majority of 273. He will be able to take other parties (into the BJP's fold), by splitting them, by breaking them, by driving them or alluring them.