'Govt Has Fooled Manoj Jarange Patil'

'The BJP, already falling short of a strong OBC leader from Maharashtra, will be more than happy to welcome Chhagan Bhujbal in its fold.'

"This agitation and the way the chief minister has handled it has brought out in the open, for the first time ever in Maharashtra, the feeling of envy and one-upmanship between two of the most politically dominant sections of Maharashtra society -- the Marathas and the OBCs," senior journalist and political commentator Vivek Bhavsar tells Prasanna D Zore/Rediff.com in the concluding part of the interview.

• Part 1 of the Interview: 'Shinde desperately needed a voter base among the Marathas'

Is the GR handed over to Manoj Jarange Patil a real game-changer in the Marathas' agitation for reservations?

The most important issue one must note is what has been handed over to MJP is the draft of the GR and not the actual GR. It was surprising to see MJP (Manoj Jarange Patil) accepting the GR draft. It is not an ordinance, but a draft of the GR.

As per this draft GR, it would invite people's objections/suggestions to this draft GR till February 16. Following this the government would look at these suggestions/objections, and since there is no assembly session scheduled any time soon, the government will issue a gazette.

Later when the assembly session is convened, a bill would be tabled and once this bill is passed will this GR actually take the character of law.

On the face of it, it looks like the government has fooled MJP as well as Maratha agitators. It is not an adhyadesh (ordinance), it is just a draft of the ordinance that will become law in due course of time.

Opposition leaders and political analysts claim that the chief minister has meekly surrendered to blackmail. Is that true?

It looks like the Shinde government has surrendered before the strong arm tactics adopted by MJP. The government feared that had they not made a public spectacle of how they bowed to the wishes of the Marathas, MJP and his unorganised supporters would have entered Mumbai and created chaos.

The 56 agitations organised by the Maratha Kranti Morcha during Devendra Fadnavis's time (as chief minister) were well-organised, well-planned events. Every agitator was told that their intention was not to create a law and order situation.

As a result, all those agitations had women leading from the front, followed by elderly menfolk who were in turn followed by the youth who were given the task of cleaning all the garbage left in the wake of those who led this agitation.

These agitations were quite systematic; there was not a single incident of stone-throwing or rowdiness.

Contrarily, the youth who were accompanying MJP from Antarwali Sarati and who joined him along the way were angry and blinded by their demand for reservations-for-Marathas-or-else temper. If these people were not given a carrot they would have entered Mumbai and created chaos.

Nobody, not even the government, had any clue about the numerical strength of anti-social elements among the agitators.

Shinde portrayed himself as a son-of-the-soil Maratha, a farmer's son, who, by issuing this GR, was undoing all the wrongs done by earlier Maratha leaders in whom these agitators had put their faith. Shinde perfectly played to MJP's tune and he in turn did exactly what was expected of him.

The game was played in such a way that both Shinde and MJP not only saved their faces in front of their constituencies but emerged as heroes without any real benefit to the agitators.

But this mutually beneficial understanding was played at the cost of holding the entire government and state administration to ransom. This was neither a masterstroke nor an abject surrender.

This agitation and the way the chief minister has handled it has brought out in the open, for the first time ever in Maharashtra, the feeling of envy and one-upmanship between two of the most politically dominant sections of Maharashtra society -- the Marathas and the OBCs.

How? Could you elaborate?

MJP's agitation for reservations in its earlier days was limited only to the grant of Kunbi status to the Marathas of Marathwada, from where he hails. He then shifted the goalpost demanding Kunbi caste certificate to all the Marathas in the state.

Majority of Marathas in the Konkan and Vidarbha region enjoy the status of Kunbis and so there is nothing new in what they will be gaining from the benefits that this GR might ostentatiously bring for Marathas. Those who belong to the 96 kuli Maratha clan would not accept their new-found OBC status.

Despite this demand for reservation just being limited to Marathwada MJP made it a state-wide issue. The manner in which the number of Marathas considered as Kunbis suddenly inflated from a mere 2,000 to 54 lakh (5.4 million) leaves a lot of room for speculation.

If this GR, giving way for reservations to sage-soyre (a chain of relatives that links those who have been issued Kunbi certificates to their relatives and their relatives in turn leading to exponential rise in issuance of Kunbi certificates to Marathas who can then become eligible for reservations under the OBC quota) becomes a reality then this 54 lakh Kunbi Marathas would jump five-fold to 2.5 crore (25 million).

This would eat into -- and lead to a huge dilution in -- the quotas of those who enjoy the benefit of reservations as OBCs in the state.

MJP has been consistently taking OBC leader and Cabinet minister Chhagan Bhujbal head on in all his public addresses to his supporters.

The slanging match between MJP and Chhagan Bhujbal has now transformed into Marathas versus OBC one-upmanship.

Deputy Chief Minister and Home Minister Devendra Fadnavis was nowhere to be seen throughout this agitation.

The way in which MJP has fought for quotas and reservations for Marathas has clearly set him up against Chhagan Bhujbal, current cabinet minister, considered an influential OBC leader.

Devendra Fadnavis belongs to the BJP, a party which considers the OBCs as its DNA, has cleverly and purposely maintained his distance from MJP and the Maratha agitation for reservations.

Acting from behind-the-scenes, it is evident that Fadnavis is pushing Bhujbal against MJP. If push comes to shove, on the issue of Maratha reservations alone, it is possible that Bhujbal might quit the Nationalist Congress Party camp led by Ajit Pawar and join the BJP.

The BJP, already falling short of a strong OBC leader from Maharashtra, will be more than happy to welcome Bhujbal in its fold.

Leaders like Chandrashekhar Bawankule (the current Maharashtra BJP president), Atul Save are not crowd-pulling OBC leaders. Sudhir Mungantiwar too has his limitations. The BJP is desperately in need of a strong OBC face.

Bhujbal's entry into the BJP, if and when it happens, would further strengthen the BJP's OBC DNA and here, the latter's aggressive posturing against MJP and his strong arm tactics, fits in quite well with the overall BJP outreach towards the OBCs.

There are even signs of friction even between Ajit Pawar and Bhujbal, as is evident from the many public utterings of the former indirectly asking the latter to act with patience when it comes to opposing the issue of Maratha reservations.

Given his stance against Maratha reservations, Bhujbal has been completely sidelined in the (Maratha-dominated) NCP camp that recently joined the Shinde-Fadnavis government.

Bhujbal knows for sure that if he continues fighting for the cause of the OBCs and emerges as the principal face of their opposition to the Maratha reservations his stature as an OBC leader would jump manifold if he were to resign or made to resign as a minister.

Also, don't forget that Fadnavis holds the home portfolio, and he has all the evidence about those involved in the unfortunate lathi-charge at Antarwali Sarati on MJP's agitation on August 29 last year and the violence that followed soon after against OBC leaders in the state.

When the time is politically correct he will spill all the beans about the masterminds of this violence and counter-violence.

Looking at these complex political games that are currently being played in Maharashtra, what are the gains and losses for the Shinde-Fadnavis government?

Overall, it looks like Eknath Shinde has emerged hero of the suppressed Maratha community considered as Kunbis.

Fadnavis too issued a GR and granted reservations to the Marathas during his stint as chief minister but this did not pay rich political dividends to the BJP in the 2019 assembly elections.

Given this backdrop it doesn't seem like Shinde issuing the GR and emerging hero of the Kunbi Maratha community would also lead to any political benefit for Shinde.

A dominant section of 96 kuli Marathas on the ground in Western Maharashtra feel that Shinde has betrayed them and are baying for his resignation. All said, the powerful Maratha community has traditionally been loyal to the NCP.

The BJP, which had suffered a five-six per cent dent in its OBC voters during the last assembly election, will no doubt once again gravitate towards it.

The BJP would now know for sure that they cannot trust Eknath Shinde and only the BJP can deliver justice to them. The OBCs now have no option but to consider a Brahmin Fadnavis as their leader.