'Strikes into the Gulf countries are proof that the security guarantees offered by the US are ineffective and that the Gulf countries cannot rely on American security assurances for their safety.'
As tensions spiral across West Asia, Iranian drone and missile strikes on Gulf countries have intensified fears of a wider regional war and raised critical questions about Tehran's strategy, American military presence, and the role of sectarian politics.
In this interview with Syed Firdaus Ashraf/Rediff, Colonel Rajeev Agarwal (retd), a West Asia expert and Senior Research Consultant at the Chintan Research Foundation, a New Delhi think-tank, explains that Iran's actions are part of a "pre-determined military strategy" aimed at targeting American bases and assets in response to what he describes as a war initiated by Israel and the United States.
Why is Iran attacking Gulf countries? Are American bases in these countries the only explanation for these attacks?
The strikes by drones and missiles in Gulf countries are a part of Iran's pre-determined military strategy.
It had in fact announced it well before the start of the conflict that, in case a war is started by Israel and the US, all American bases and assets in the region would be considered legitimate military targets and would bear the brunt of Iran's punitive response.
Iran had also informed the neighbouring Gulf countries that such strikes would not be aimed at targeting their sovereignty and would be restricted to US, Israeli and western targets.
The other reason for Iran targeting the Gulf countries is to increase the cost of the conflict in the region wherein the Gulf countries would be forced to seek an early end to the conflict.
Strikes into the Gulf countries also are proof that the security guarantees offered by the US are ineffective and that the Gulf countries cannot rely on American security assurances for their safety.
In fact, the strikes into Doha, Qatar, lay bare the iron clad security guarantees that the US had assured Qatar after Israel had fired missiles into Doha in September 2025, targeting the Hamas leadership.
How many American bases are located in the Gulf? How many of them have been attacked? Does Iran have defence capabilities to target each of these bases?
The US has 13 major military bases in the region. The most prominent are the Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain and the CENTCOM HQ based in Doha, Qatar.
All the American bases are well within the range and capability of Iranian missiles and drones as has been witnessed over the first two days of the war.
Iranian missiles have caused large scale damage to the naval base in Bahrain as well as military bases in Kuwait, Doha, UAE, Jordan etc.
In fact on the night of March 1-2, the US base in Ebril, Iraq, which is basically a huge ammunition depot was targeted and completely destroyed.
Iran also targeted US naval assets including launching of four ballistic missiles at the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, deployed in the Persian Gulf.
Although reports indicate that the missiles were intercepted well short of the aircraft carrier, the symbolism is effective enough. The American logistic base in Duqm port in Oman too has been struck by Iranian drones, causing damage.
How far are reports stating that Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman lobbied US President Donald Trump to attack Iran true?
These reports are speculative and add to the fog of war. There is no doubt that Saudi Arabia and Iran have had an acrimonious relationship over past decades and see each other as a rival. However, there has been a lot of positive momentum in relations after the peace deal between them in March 2023.
Even in the 12 Day War (June 13 to June 24, 2025), Saudi Arabia along with other Gulf countries had voiced support for Iran in the light of US and Israeli attacks. However, it is true that Saudi Arabia has joined the Gulf countries in condemning Iranian strikes and threatening direct military action against Iran.
Why have Gulf countries failed to have some kind of defence system where Iranian missiles can be intercepted like Israel does? Did they never anticipate the danger from Iran? Or were they too confident that American forces will protect these countries?
Most of the Gulf countries have small armies, navies and air forces. For decades they have depended on American assurances for security. The US had occupied military bases in the region not only as part of its global military deployment but also a part of regional security umbrella.
Therefore, none of the Gulf countries individually have either weapon platforms nor trained manpower to repel Iranian missiles by themselves.
Reports also say that Saudi Arabia wanted the war because of falling global oil prices which was crippling its economy. Could this be true?
Oil prices are controlled and determined by a collective body called the OPEC+ (OPEC+ is a coalition of 22 oil-exporting nations formed in 2016, combining the 12 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with 10 other major non-OPEC producers, most notably Russia).
Saudi Arabia is an important part of OPEC+. Oil prices before the start of the war were hovering around $71 which was well within the economic and budgetary calculations in Saudi Arabia.
The conflict is now threatening shutting down of oil trade flows, which cannot be beneficial to Saudi Arabia in any case.
How much of a role did Sunni Islam, that is followed by the Gulf countries, and the Shia Islam of Iran play in these attacks?
This war has been initiated by Israel and the US on grounds which can at best be called 'doubtful' and 'suspicious'. Iran is retaliating against the US and Israel by targeting Israel as well as American bases and assets in the region.
It is neither a war where Shia and Sunni nations are being pitted against each other nor has this war been initiated as a result of some acrimony between the two sects of Islam.
Why is Iran attacking Bahrain considering it has a nearly 60 percent Shia population? Is there no Shia camaraderie?
This war is not about camaraderie or brotherhood; it is only about Iran's fight for survival. Plus, Bahrain had declared that it would support American strikes on Iran when the war began.
Also, both nations have a history. Iran considers Bahrain as its province. In fact, on November 12, 1957, Iran (then ruled by the Shah Mohammad Reza Pahalvi) had officially declared Bahrain as the 14th Iranian province, even allocating two seats in the Iranian parliament for Bahrain. However, Bahrain's independence in 1971 changed all that, but the history remains in the discourse.
What role is the Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) which comprises 57 Islamic countries playing in this conflict?
OIC has condemned Iranian strikes on the Gulf countries. Most of the OIC countries in the Gulf region have also indicated that they might be forced to undertake military action against Iran if the strikes don't stop.
Photographs curated by Manisha Kotian/Rediff