'Tamil Nadu has 42% of its population in the 18 to 39 age group. The bulk of the population in this age group voted for Vijay and women voters too voted for him in big numbers.'
Tamil movie superstar Vijay shocked poll pundits by winning the Tamil Nadu assembly elections on his debut.
In February 2024 Vijay launched his political party, the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), and till August that year his party did not even have a flag.
It was only in August 22, 2024, that he displayed his political flag that featured maroon and yellow colours, two trumpeting war elephants, and a central Vaagai flower, symbolising women's strength, collective people's power, and victory.
No pollster took the actor's political debut seriously except Axis My India Chairman and Managing Director Pradeep Gupta who predicted that Vijay was going to win the Tamil Nadu assembly elections.
Axis My India was the only polling agency that projected a victory for the TVK in the exit polls, predicting about 98 to 120 seats for the debutant party in the 234-member assembly. All other exit polls gave Vijay no chance and predicted that he would stand third behind the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the All India Anna DMK.
Vijay's party won 108 seats, just 10 short of a majority to form the government in Tamil Nadu on its own.
Syed Firdaus Ashraf/Rediff spoke to Pradeep Gupta about how he got right Vijay's victory in Tamil Nadu when all other pollsters went wrong.
You were the only person who got it right in Tamil Nadu by predicting Vijay's victory. How did you get it right?
I am very happy with our exit poll numbers as we were the only ones who predicted Vijay's victory in Tamil Nadu. I give full credit to my team at Axis My India. Our processes of data science and our field research helped us to predict Vijay's victory in Tamil Nadu.
What data did you collect that the others did not?
Anti-incumbency was working against the ruling DMK. The people of Tamil Nadu were looking for change, particularly after giving a chance for 50 years to the DMK and AIADMK. And they found that change in Vijay, the superstar.
This was particularly observed in youth and women voters of Tamil Nadu. The state has 42 percent of its population in the 18 to 39 age group. The bulk of the population in this age group voted for Vijay. Women voters too voted for him in big numbers.
Vijay's voters cut across the caste, creed and regional barriers of Tamil Nadu in the 18-39 years age group. In fact, Vijay managed to capture a few seats in neighbouring Puducherry too.
Kamal Haasan failed to win elections when he launched his political party in 2018. He and his Makkal Needhi Maiam party could not make much headway, so what set Vijay apart?
Kamal Haasan's age (65) was different when he joined politics and Vijay's age (49 years old in 2024) was different when he entered politics.
More importantly you need to work on the ground to bring about change and keep things going. You need to set up the organisational structure of your party which Vijay did and Kamal Haasan didn't have when he contested the elections.
At the polling booth level you need to have your party workers to bring people to the voting booth and tell them before entering the poll booth to press on your election symbol. If you do that, only then you will be able to succeed.
Vijay managed this successfully whereas Kamal Haasan could not manage it.
Brand equity is one thing in elections but converting that brand equity into votes is altogether another thing as it takes place on the ground level.
The DMK gave so many freebies, yet the people of Tamil Nadu were not happy with them.
It was Vijay's stardom.
What happened in 2014 with Prime Minister Modi's stardom in the 2014 elections, the same thing happened with Vijay's stardom in the Tamil Nadu assembly elections. It cut across all regional barriers of Tamil Nadu and his stardom appealed to voters of the state.
What message does Vijay's victory give Opposition parties who are at the receiving end from the BJP?
Delivery, delivery and delivery (of governance). Without delivering you cannot win elections.
People demand accountability and they demand delivery. Now (getting votes in the name of) legacy and dynasty rule is over. People look for a change and some newness into it. The old traditional method of winning elections will not hold good.
What about the the BJP then? Why don't people vote them out as they too have been ruling some states for 15 years? Fatigue factor or newness is not seen in those states. Why?
Delivery and delivery of governance is happening (on the ground).
What you see in the media and what is going on on the ground are two very different things.
It is the delivery of the government of the day and therefore people repeat your government by voting them. If you don't deliver on governance then people will vote to oust you from power.