'We need to give Pakistan something serious to think about on its eastern front -- that is the only way to actually help Afghanistan right now.'
Pakistan's air strikes on Afghan territory have drawn sharp international condemnation and raised fears of a wider regional conflagration.
These airstrikes come at a particularly volatile moment: The United States and Israel have attacked Iran, tensions on the Pakistan-India border remain elevated following Operation Sindoor, and Islamabad finds itself dangerously overstretched, juggling massive Chinese debt, a restless Taliban on its western frontier, and a new eagerness to please Washington.
In this interview with Prasanna D Zore/Rediff, retired Major General G D Bakshi -- one of India's candid strategic voices -- dissects what lies behind Pakistan's aggression and suggests what India must do to protect its national interests amid the gathering storm.
With the recent escalation between Pakistan and Afghanistan, do you see this as a localised conflict, or could it be part of a larger regional power play?
Pakistan is a country that is too clever by half for its own good. They have taken $80 billion in loans from the US. China has put $60 billion into the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. 80 per cent of all their weapons and equipment across the air force, navy and army comes from China. And yet Pakistan decided to dump China and go sit in the lap of Donald Trump.
Trump's message appears simple: Help me deal with Iran. Pakistan's response? 'Yes, sir.' If Trump wants the Bagram air base, Islamabad seems ready to facilitate.
The assumption seems to be that Afghanistan, lacking an air force, is an easy target. But while the Afghan Taliban may not have fighter jets, they have relied heavily on suicide bombers in the past.
And if Pakistan continues provoking all its neighbours -- Iran, Afghanistan and India -- it cannot be surprised if they eventually align against it. If that happens, Pakistan will have to bear the consequences of its own actions.
Will the United States not intervene if these countries gang up against Pakistan?
Intervene and do what exactly? Send a US carrier to save Pakistan? They sent the USS Enterprise in 1971. Did that save Pakistan from breaking apart? It didn't help one bit. And how many countries can America fight at once?
Donald Trump won his election on the promise of peace and quiet. Within months, he has already attacked seven or eight countries and is now planning a war with Iran -- against the advice of his own chairman of the joint chiefs of staff.
If you throw India, Iran, and Afghanistan into the mix, Russia and China could also jump into the fray. There has to be some common sense in all of this.
Could the Pakistan-Afghanistan tension be serving as a deliberate geopolitical diversion?
I don't see how Afghanistan can serve as a diversion. The plain fact is that the Taliban has been giving the Pakistan army hell -- every second or third day, twelve to fourteen Pakistani soldiers are being killed on that frontier. It is out of that frustration that Pakistan struck Afghanistan and killed women and children. Now the Afghans have a tradition of badla -- revenge -- and they have already started retaliating on the border. There will be much more to come.
I don't think you can link this to Iran, because if Washington wants Pakistan to finger the Sistan-Balochistan area of Iran -- which they do, and they have been funnelling millions of dollars' worth of arms to Baloch insurgents through Pakistan -- then the last thing the Americans would want is for Pakistan to open yet another front with Afghanistan. They need Islamabad focused on the Iran side.
China and the US both have enormous stakes in Pakistan. How do you see each viewing these Pakistan-Afghanistan clashes?
Is Pakistan even listening to China at this point? China has invested billions in Balochistan -- not one drop of oil has been found, not one gram of rare earth. And then Pakistan's leadership walks into the White House like a travelling salesman and sells Trump oil that hasn't been found, rare earth that hasn't been found. The Chinese are quite upset. They have been taken for a ride, and they know it.
How close are we to a direct US-Iran conflict? The US Embassy in Jerusalem has just authorised departure of non-emergency personnel.
When embassies start evacuating staff, that is a sign something is going to happen. Trump has been told by Dan Caine, his Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, not to do it -- because it risks heavy American casualties, depletes interceptor stockpiles, and if China chooses that very moment to move on Taiwan, America will be stretched beyond its limits.
If Trump launches the attack despite all that, he will be reckless enough to invite body bags home -- and that, in a midterm election year, could end his political career. But then again, who can rule out Donald Trump doing the most irrational thing possible? He thinks losing face is worse than losing soldiers. And if the Epstein files are threatening to dominate the headlines, well, nothing clears the news cycle like a war, does it?
Iran has Chinese and Russian backing as well...
Absolutely. Chinese and Russian naval ships are already positioned in the region. They have supplied Iran with anti-ship missiles, surface-to-air missiles, three-dimensional radars. You will pay a price if you go up against that combination. And Iran is not Venezuela. Venezuela is famous for beauty pageants and Miss Universe. Iran is a different cup of tea altogether -- a fighting nation with real military capacity.
What explains Pakistan's aggression against Afghanistan specifically? And given India's visible engagement with the Taliban in Kabul, could Islamabad interpret that as strategic encirclement?
They can interpret it however they like, but why on earth should India not help the Afghan people? Pakistan thinks it can kick around neighbours that have no air force.
Well, we have a very strong air force, and they have had a taste of it in Operation Sindoor. I think we should absolutely help the Afghan people.
Pakistan is bombing women and children there. We need to give Pakistan something serious to think about on its eastern front -- that is the only way to actually help Afghanistan right now.
In the final analysis, how should India calibrate its Afghan outreach without being drawn into a proxy dynamic?
The Afghan people have always been friendly to India, and Chanakya Niti is quite straightforward on this: My enemy's enemy is my friend. It serves our national interest to stand by Afghanistan.
Pakistan is trying to cut off their food, their medicines, their rations. We were routing aid through Iran, but the Americans have blocked even that route now. So we have the air route and we must use it.
We cannot afford to be seen as abandoning our friends -- not Afghanistan, and not Iran either. Why should we?