'BJP Is Losing Ground Rapidly In J&K'

'Everyone is unhappy with the lieutenant governor's administration, which is ignorant, high-handed, and inaccessible.'

Dr Radha Kumar is a specialist on ethnic conflict, peace and security.

Author of the highly acclaimed Paradise at War: A Political History of Kashmir, she is currently vice-chair of the board of the Stockholm International Peace Institute.

She was a member of the government appointed three-person Group of Interlocutors for Jammu and Kashmir and is currently co-chair of the Forum for Human Rights in Jammu and Kashmir.

She has recently published The Republic Relearned: A Brief History of Indian Democracy and writes extensively on J&K and the problems it is afflicted by.

In an interview with Rediff.com Senior Contributor Rashme Sehgal Dr Radha Kumar provides insights into the key issues facing the J&K public in this crucial assembly election.

The National Conference and Congress have come to a seat sharing agreement with 51 seats for the NC and 32 for the Congress while there is going to be a friendly fight over 5 seats.
What does the word 'friendly' mean given that in the past, both parties have had post-election tie-ups but these can hardly be described as having been successful?

I have no idea what they mean by friendly fight! In military parlance, 'friendly fire' means firing by mistake on your own troops or allies.

As to the past history of the NC-Congress alliances, I am not sure whether it is an appropriate comparison.

Then, the state and local leaders of the two parties jockeyed for influence and power.

This time they will have to work together if they want any decision-making authority for an elected administration and legislature, since the BJP has already made the lieutenant governor the key authority.

The BJP seems to be facing a great deal of internal discord having had to revise two lists in quick succession.
What is this indicative of given that in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, their victory margins were drastically reduced in Jammu which is their core constituency?

The BJP has approached Jammu and Kashmir ideologically rather than taking the ground situation and people's aspiration into account.

They did well in Jammu for a decade or more because Jammu felt neglected by the Valley-dominated administration.

Now that both the Valley and Jammu face neglect, the two provinces cannot be pitted against each other in the same way, and the BJP is losing ground rapidly.

The Modi government would like to believe that only the Muslim population in the Valley is alienated, but it is obvious that the people in Jammu are unhappy with the loss of statehood, loss of jobs, the rule of the bureaucracy and the removal of Article 35 A allowing outsiders to purchase land and invest in large projects.
Your comments?

Exactly. Everyone is unhappy with the lieutenant governor's administration, which is ignorant, high-handed, and inaccessible.

How would you explain Engineer Rashid's success?
His son Abrar Rashid is known to be working overtime to ensure that their party does well in north Kashmir this time around.
What is your take on this?

Mr Rashid has been well respected in his constituency for decades. I am sure he and his son can explain the party's success better than I.

All the political parties, except the BJP, have promised to restore statehood.
Given the powers that the lieutenant gvernor possess, do you see any impediments in getting this through?

Statehood can only be restored by Parliament, which will have to amend or repeal the 2019 Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act.

It could be done in a trice if the Modi administration wanted to, since all the Opposition parties would support the move.

But the Modi administration has already made clear through Solicitor General Tushar Mehta that it plans to restore statehood only phase by phase -- that is what he stated before the Supreme Court in December 2023.

Hence the new rules under the Reorganisation Act, which transfer key powers over the police and bureaucracy to the lieutenant governor, pre-empting decision-making by an elected administration and legislature.

The public across the state and the majority of political parties want the restoration of Article 370.
Do you see this happening and will the Modi government permit this to happen as this would be a great setback for it?

The Modi administration will oppose any move to restore Article 370 tooth and nail.

Few of the national Opposition parties have talked about it either, though most of the Jammu and Kashmir parties want it.

My guess is that the Jammu and Kashmir parties will raise the demand in the assembly.

That will embarrass the Modi administration but the BJP will use such a demand to cast further aspersions on the Jammu and Kashmir parties, that they are 'anti-national', and so on, which will play well nationally and very badly in Kashmir, furthering alienation in the Valley and discontent in Jammu and Ladakh.

For the first time in the assembly, nine assembly seats have been reserved for STs.
How do you see the public in these constituencies casting their vote?

I imagine they too will vote along party affiliations, taking into consideration who is best known for working for the community.

The BJP is accused of trying to create discord between the Pahadi population and the Gujjar community.

I don't think they have been successful. Both communities are pragmatic and they have adjusted claims several times before.

The Ladakhi population is also extremely disillusioned with the government.
They have been demanding the introduction of the Sixth Schedule so that their culture and environment remain protected.

The Union home ministry has behaved disgracefully in promising year after year they will discuss the demand and then backing away.

In my view, Ladakh should not only have Sixth Schedule rights, its Hill Councils should have the same executive powers that they had before Ladakh became a Union Territory.

The lieutenant governor's administration there is even more ignorant and high handed than in Jammu and Kashmir.

We have witnessed a revival of terrorism in the Jammu region? What factors have contributed to this?

Many argue that cross-border infiltration of armed groups from Pakistan-held parts of Jammu never really stopped.

Even so, the sporadic bursts of attacks in Poonch-Rajouri and their spread to neighbouring districts as well as south Kashmir over the past two years is concerning.

The BJP's constant anti-Muslim rhetoric and the delimitation commission's blatantly partisan report, which put Rajouri in the Anantnag Lok Sabha constituency and also discriminated against voters in the Muslim majority areas of Jammu when it came to assembly constituencies, certainly alienated many; some might have provided shelter to armed militants.

The main problem, though, appears to have been the decay of the intelligence services as well as the security grid, given that several battalions were moved to Ladakh's China border.

Even if residents spotted and wanted to report the movement of armed militants, they lacked access.

Several Jamaat-e-Islami J&K candidates are standing for elections as independents. But the Jamaat-e-Islami J&K is known to be loyal to Pakistan.
The Jamaat is known to have a base in Kashmir and some of these candidates along with candidates from Engineer Rashid's Awami Ittehad Party are likely to win.
The central government is known to be in talks with the Jamaat as also to have encouraged these candidates to stand for elections in order to eat into the NC-Congress support base.
Will this result in a fresh round of violence in J&K given that earlier, many of them ended up joining the Hizbul Mujaideen?

I certainly believe that it is the height of cynicism and irresponsibility for the Union administration -- the home ministry -- to support candidates of an organisation they have banned and whose members they call traitors, just to decimate well established and secular political parties.

I prefer not to speculate given what horror a new outbreak of violence would spell for the people of Jammu and Kashmir.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com