'Modi Fatigue Has Set In'

'Modigate is snowballing into a huge thing with the electorate. The BJP is in for huge punishment by the electorate.'

1989. The Bofors scandal shook the nation. The Congress under Rajiv Gandhi who had won a record 404 seats in 1984 after then prime minister Indira Gandhi's assassination, was reduced to just 197 seats.

2014. The 2G spectrum scam. The ruling party, the Congress-led UPA that had won 218 seats in 2004, was reduced to 59 seats and the Congress tally was just 44!

2024. The Electoral Bond scam.

How will voters react? Will they punish the ruling party like they had done before?

They will. Political economist and author Parakala Prabhakar, who incidentally is Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's husband, tells Rediff.com's Shobha Warrier.

You described the electoral bond scam as Modigate and the biggest scam in the world. But Narendra Modi said those who criticised the scheme would regret it later...

I am trying to translate what he meant. Is that a threat? Or does he mean it's false?

On both counts, he is in the wrong. If he wants to tell people I can do whatever I want and I will go after those who are behind it, it is wrong in my book. And as far as democracy is concerned also.

I believe we are still in a democratic country where we can speak truth to the powers, and we can have our own opinion.

Second, if he thinks he and those in power are above board, the evidence doesn't point that way.

It cannot be my word against his word, or his word against anybody else's word.

If that is the case, he should come forward and appoint a judicial commission. It should be somebody who is neutral, whose credentials are unimpeachable. They should come forward and say, this is above board.

One more thing needs to be explored. If he says those who find fault with the bonds will regret later, does that also include the Supreme Court of India and the Chief Justice of India? Will they also regret?

I think what he said is a very dangerous portent to the democratic life of our country.

Do you think the BJP is rattled by the way the scam is developing as they are talking in such a language and attacking Opposition parties and leaders?

I think they are quite rattled. I also think some of them have sensed that there is a huge rejection of this kind of wrongdoings of the government.

Modigate is snowballing into a huge thing with the electorate. I feel they are in for huge punishment by the electorate.

Do you really feel the Opposition parties are able to take it to the public? Do the people understand the gravity of the scam?

If you look at this as BJP versus the other parties, you will start to ask questions like, are the other parties strong or do they have the machinery to take this to the people?

But my feeling now is, the fight today is not between one political party and the other, or one alliance of political parties against the alliance of another group of political parties.

It is a fight between the BJP and the prime minister on one side, and the people of India on the other side. That's the alliance that has been formed now.

The fight has gone beyond political parties.

But do people understand what really the electoral bond scam is?

We normally tend to underestimate the general public.

Secondly, they need not understand the nitty-gritty of the scam. Tell me, how many people understood what 2G scam was?

There is a pervasive sense that huge monies have been taken by the government, favours were granted, and agencies were used to extort money. A lot of people understand this much. It is snowballing, and day by day, the awareness has been increasing.

If you recall, this government came to power on a plank of India against corruption. So, they were on a moral high ground of 'na khaoonga aur na khane doonga', and as a party with a difference.

But with this scam, all that moral high ground has collapsed. In addition to losing the moral high ground, there is huge unemployment, price rise, etc.

Actually, the government's efforts to stall the revelations of the bond details by the SBI in spite of the Supreme Court directive, have made people more suspicious. It made people think that they have something huge to hide.

Otherwise, why will they make such frantic efforts to stop the SBI from revealing the bond details?

If the government and the BJP and the prime minister are what they want us to believe, they should have said in the beginning itself, here are the details.

Why did they fight not to divulge the details?

Everything they have done, in the Supreme Court and after the court verdict to give partial information initially, indicate that the government has something to hide. And they are making it so obvious!

In fact, the way they behave is helping to spread the news of the scam faster.

Even when the mainstream media is completely in their hands, the news of the scam is still going viral. And it looks as if the government has lost its narrative.

If you notice, not a single sentence has been spoken in the form of defence of the electoral bond so far.

Why was it necessary to make it anonymous?

Why were bails granted after bonds were given?

Why were raids stopped after bonds were given?

Why were contracts given soon after bonds were given?

If they are just coincidental, why so many coincidences?

Let an independent judicial body go into the bottom of this.

The mainstream media went after UPA 2 on many scams including the 2G scam and destroyed it completely before the 2014 elections.
But the same media is totally silent on the electoral bond scam. Is it not a sad state of affairs in a democracy?

Absolutely. It shows that the so-called independent mainstream media is no more independent.

We know very well how they have been silenced.

You do not want people to know anything that is adverse to the government. You put pressure on the management and make it cave in, and then some cronies of the government take over the management. This is how they control the media.

The mainstream media today, instead of looking at unemployment, price rise, rural distress, poverty, etc, is more interested in pre-wedding events!

Is this the worst period for independent India? Worse than the Emergency?

I was too young during the Emergency. From what I have read and understood, this is much worse, as worse as it can get.

For instance, Manipur has been burning for more than 10 months. But it is no more in the national conversation.

On one side, you put out a lofty slogan like Vasudeva Kudumbakam. Does that not include Manipur?

Or is the whole earth your family excluding Manipur, excluding people who pray to a certain God, excluding people who wear a certain dress, excluding people who speak certain language, excluding people who eat certain food? Is that Vasudeva Kudumbakam?

During the Congress regime, we had seen how they used the CBI to hunt down Opposition leaders.
Some say the way the BJP uses the ED and IT department for the same purpose is unprecedented.
Do you feel so?

It is not Jawaharlal Nehru versus who know who, or UPA versus somebody else. Or is it worse in Putin's Russia or here?

The point is, what is happening is unacceptable.

We did not sign up for this.

In 2014, the slogan was 2 crore jobs, 15 lakh rupees in every account after black money is brought from Swiss banks, doubling of farmer's income, house for everybody and so on.

This was what people had signed up for.

Not 40% unemployment among the youth between the ages of 20 and 25.

Or almost 27% food inflation.

Or record high food inflation, health inflation and education inflation.

Or record high fuel prices.

22% of the country's income is going to 1% of the population. And 40% of the wealth is controlled by 1% of the population. This is what the latest Inequality Lab report says. This is the highest in the history of India, higher than even during the colonial period.

We see complete mismanagement of the economy.

Did we bargain for this?

So, the discourse should be, what have you promised and what is the situation now.

We need to narrow down the debates to these issues.

To me, it is Modi versus Modi. What Modi of 2014 promised, and where we are today.

Still, why is it that people are voting for Narendra Modi?

It is going to change.

With the Ram Mandir at Ayodhya, it is said that there will be Hindu consolidation...

Two attempts are going on.

One is, the government, the BJP and the prime minister want to foreground hate and othering.

But what is foregrounded in people's mind is unemployment, price rise, rural distress, and corruption.

Now, the contest is between what they say and what is the real experience of the people.

This is what is going to decide the election.

My feeling is the BJP has exhausted all the tricks in the book, and the electoral bond is the last straw.

Everything is in the public domain even after the government, the Election Commission and SBI refused. The civil society has done it.

It is the civil society that is telling you, about the raids and the money deposited after that. People can see a clear pattern.

Will the construction of a temple unite Hindus and give the BJP and Modi votes even when there is no job and there is no food at home?

It did help them in the short term and the medium term.

But the tricks in the books are over.

The common man will now say, I have heard all that. Now tell me, where are the jobs? Where is the food on my table?

You mean the time has come for them to ask these questions?

Yes. The economic distress, the misdeeds of the government, the government trying to be unanswerable even to Parliament... these have all been building up for so long and people have been watching silently.

Now the time has come for the accounts to be settled.

Even when there is no strong opponent for Narendra Modi? The question that you encounter all the time is, what is the alternative?

Only when you look at the situation from the prism of one leader versus another leader, you will try to find out who is strong and who is weak.

But no leader is strong against the people of India.

So, it is the people of India versus one leader.

Another thing I want to say is Modi fatigue has set in.

But he says, we have only seen the trailer...

He may say anything. Nobody will know until he or she falls.

This fatigue is because the prime minister is over-exposed. From his trips to the sky, to the bottom of the sea, there is nothing left where he has not been.

What will happen to India if Modi were to come back in the coming election?

There is a huge likelihood that we won't have another election. This probably will be the last election in the foreseeable future.

What is happening in Manipur today can be replicated in every other state.

The kind of dog whistles you hear now -- about lynching, about economic boycott, about ethnic cleansing, about shouting a particular slogan if you have to live in this country -- will no longer be dog whistles; you will hear these calls from the Red Fort.

That is the danger that is staring at us.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com