'Baloch Believe Pakistan Will Break Up'

'The struggle of insurgents and pro-independence political activists is fuelled by a deep conviction that not only is a free Balochistan possible, but they also believe that Pakistan will inevitably break apart, leading to Balochistan's independence.'

"If you examine Baloch nationalist messaging, it often seems like a plea to Americans and Indians, portraying their struggle as an effort to drive out a common enemy -- China," points out journalist Malik Siraj Akbar, who fled Balochistan for safety in 201o and lives in exile in the USA.

Akbar is a part of a small group of Baloch in exile, which includes political activists, journalists, and others who had to flee to escape repression by the Pakistani military agencies.

"The nationalists believe they have been effective in this fight and now expect support in the larger battle. However, this is not how the United States or India views China or the Balochistan movement," Malik Siraj Akbar says in a detailed e-mail interview with Rediff.com's Archana Masih.

Part II of a must-read interview on the reasons for the Pakistan-Baloch conflict and why Balochistan is on fire.

• Part 1 of the Interview: 'Pakistan Intelligence Have Killed Hundreds Of Baloch'

Why are educated, middle-class radicals so violently angry against the Pakistan State?

The Baloch middle class has been the primary victim of Pakistan's military operations and enforced disappearances.

This situation is straightforward: Education increases awareness of one's history, culture, and rights, leading educated individuals to question Islamabad's policies toward Balochistan.

Islamabad's flawed and arrogant approach has provided young Baloch with ample reasons to feel disillusioned and disappointed with the Pakistani State.

As more young people express dissent and demand political rights and equal treatment, Pakistan feels increasingly threatened and responds with violence to suppress Baloch youth.

This creates a vicious cycle: The more the State employs repressive measures and violence against the Baloch, the more they lose faith in the country's political and legal systems and turn to alternatives, such as insurgent groups, whom they view as capable of delivering swift retribution.

Independence for Balochistan is politically unrealistic, so what do these Baloch insurgents hope to achieve?

The insurgents and pro-independence political activists would strongly disagree with the notion that their goal is unattainable.

Their struggle is fuelled by a deep conviction that not only is a free Balochistan possible, but they also believe that Pakistan will inevitably break apart, leading to Balochistan's independence.

Since it's difficult to argue with those who are armed, we haven't had many opportunities to challenge the Baloch armed groups on their strategy and roadmap to win the freedom of Balochistan.

Many Baloch I speak to naively hope that one day, the United States or India will intervene and help them gain independence. This hope has surged recently due to the increased presence of China in the region.

If you examine Baloch nationalist messaging, it often seems like a plea to Americans and Indians, portraying their struggle as an effort to drive out a common enemy (China).

They believe they have been effective in this fight and now expect support in the larger battle. However, this is not how the United States or India views China or the Balochistan movement.

Another widespread belief among Baloch nationalists is that global political dynamics will eventually shift, leading the US to support a free Balochistan as a means of countering Iran and China.

When confronted with scepticism about their arguments, they often point to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, saying, 'Who could have imagined it would fall apart? But it did.'

While there is ample room to challenge the idea of a free Balochistan, Baloch nationalists insist that such debates are premature and distracting at this point. They prefer to focus on their struggle for independence, leaving discussions about the specifics of governing Balochistan for after they achieve their goal.

Will this be a long war which no one wins and countless Baloch families pay the price with deaths at the hands of State agencies and loved ones going missing?
What could be, in your opinion, the end game in Balochistan? Or is there no end game?

This is the core argument of moderate Baloch nationalist political parties: They remind armed groups that fighting a nuclear-armed State is futile and will only harm the Baloch people, particularly by costing them their youth.

With their small population, the Baloch cannot afford to lose their young people in a senseless conflict. While this discussion has already begun among the Baloch, the lack of confidence-building measures from the Pakistani military and federal government, such as ending enforced disappearances, has weakened the voices of moderates.

I expect this conflict to be prolonged because groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army show no signs of fatigue or victimhood; they claim they are prepared to fight as long as necessary.

Meanwhile, the Pakistani military dismisses reports of 'military operations' in the province as false and exaggerated. The military says a full-scale military operation, like the one against the Pakistani Taliban, has not yet been carried out in Balochistan.

If the Pakistani Army were to formally move into Balochistan to eliminate insurgents, it would likely result in a horrific scenario.

The epicentre, so to speak, of the CPEC is in Balochistan. How much has that contributed to the unrest in the province?
Is the Pakistan army and Islamabad government under Chinese pressure to ensure that Baloch nationalism does not disrupt the CPEC?

Any movement requires a compelling issue to justify its existence and rally its supporters. For Baloch nationalists, the Gwadar port and the presence of the Chinese have provided the perfect cause to unite against what they perceive as a conspiracy by Pakistan and China to displace them and alter the demographic balance in their region.

While the Chinese are not inherently opposed to the Baloch people, they view the CPEC as a political tool aimed at enhancing China's global status rather than merely an economic initiative.

Therefore, China cannot afford for CPEC to fail and feels trapped in a conflict between the Baloch and the Pakistani government that predates its involvement in the region.

The conflict is only getting nastier by the day. And the Chinese are unable to mediate between the two sides.

China wields significant influence over Pakistan, but lacks an understanding of democratic needs. Although Pakistan is not a perfect democracy, applying an authoritarian approach in Gwadar or Balochistan is unfeasible given the politically aware local population, who are resistant to control by the Pakistani security establishment.

Both Pakistan and China must recognise that the Baloch people seek more than just development; they need respect, consultation on local projects, a stake in the development process, and assurances that CPEC is not designed to displace them from their homes.

Over the years, the two governments have failed to convince the Baloch that CPEC will positively impact their lives.

Without peace in Balochistan and genuine local support, CPEC will continue to be seen as a colonising project by Pakistan and China, remaining vulnerable to delays, disruptions, and potential failure.

• Part III of the Interview: 'Baloch Are Humiliated As Indian Agents'

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com