'In the short term the relationship will get worse.'
Gautam Bambawale is one of only three Indian diplomats who have served as the Republic's ambassadors to China and Pakistan this century.
Having served four tenures in China, Ambassador Bambawale arguably understands the People's Republic better than many 'China experts' in New Delhi. Which is why this eloquent interview is a must read.
"As India's global power increases, China's relative power will decrease. India will be able to stand her ground even more firmly as that process unfolds," Ambassador Bambawale tells Rediff.com's Archana Masih and Nikhil Lakshman in the concluding segment of the interview.
How would you assess India-China relations in the short term?
In the short term the relationship will get worse. After China's shenanigans in Eastern Ladakh since summer 2020, India has held firm militarily, diplomatically and politically. China will have to untie the knot if the relationship has to improve.
Both in the short and long term, the future is bright for India. India is enhancing its comprehensive national power and strength. I have no doubt that over a 15-20 year perspective, we will reduce the power asymmetry with China.
As India's global power increases, China's relative power will decrease. India will be able to stand her ground even more firmly as that process unfolds.
In your understanding, how much command and control do PLA troops have on the ground? Or do they need a go-ahead from the senior leadership far away in Beijing?
Earlier, it used to take more time for PLA troops on the LAC to receive their orders. Perhaps, they used to come all the way from Beijing and its Central Military Commission. In recent years, the PLA has been reformed and restructured. The theatre commands have much more latitude in decision making which has accelerated their actions on our frontier.
One of the goals undertaken by the PLA was to enable commanders to take decisions on the ground and not wait for orders to percolate all the way down from Beijing.
It appears to me that the crack Chinese troops of the PLA are good, with excellent training. However, some of the formations across the LAC which the Indian Army faces in Tibet may not be as good. Moreover, the Indian Army is battle hardened and well trained. This is my takeaway as an ordinary individual who has studied the situation in the last four years after the clash in Eastern Ladakh.
How has India handled China over the last few decades?
Post 1976, India has handled China very well. Though we did not severe diplomatic relations with China after the 1962 War, we re-established relations at the ambassador level in 1976. Since then we have dealt well with China.
The 1988 construct ensured peace on our borders for around 30 years. The only problem was that we did not focus on our own economic growth and hence as China grew rapidly, the power asymmetry between us was allowed to grow and become humongous.
The crux of the matter is that we have to strengthen ourselves, grow our economy, increase female labour force participation, reduce infant mortality etc.
The answers to many issues of international politics including the one of dealing with China, lie within India. Now, we have begun focusing on them. We have to grow faster than China is doing so that we reduce the asymmetry between us.
As India's ambassador to China who saw the early years of Xi Jinping's regime, what is your understanding of his thinking, of who he is?
Xi Jinping is more in the Mao Zedong mould. He believes the (Chinese Communist) party should have absolute command over the country, society and economy. He took over as party secretary in November 2012 and has re-centralised political and economic decision making power and authority.
The 40 years of reform under Deng Xiaoping and his two followers -- Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao -- were aimed at decentralising both political and economic decision-making authority. It resulted in China's fast-paced growth. In those four decades China saw double digit growth every year.
The re-centralisation under Xi has resulted in the slowing down of the Chinese economy. Such a large country and big economy cannot be centrally driven. You have to leave economic decisions to the people. If you don't, then you cannot grow as fast as in the past. This is what China is experiencing.
This is good for us in India as it allows us a window of opportunity to narrow the power gap and differential with China. We must seize this opportunity with both hands. We cannot let such a chance pass us by.
Do you think there could be a backlash against Xi and his policies from within the Communist party?
Not as yet because he controls all the levers of power. Discontent primarily flows if there is economic discontent among the populace -- and we can see that happening already. Young graduates, fresh out of college, are not getting jobs. Whether this will have a larger political impact, we have yet to see.
What is your assessment of India's foreign policy recently?
India is making huge strides globally. G20 was an example of that. Our standing in the international community is rising every day.
Our voice matters and we are sought out amongst the nations of the world for our views and for our positions on international and global issues. We have played our cards well. I am confident we shall continue to do so.
And that is making the Chinese insecure?
Naturally. India's emergence as the leading voice of the Global South will shake them a bit.
Does China remain our enemy number one?
I won't say enemy no 1, but challenge number 1. The Government of India has handled the China challenge very well so far. I am sure we shall continue to do so in the near future too.
Do you believe our foreign policy in the last ten years has become more aggressive and proactive?
There is little doubt that Indian power has increased and there is no doubt that when your power increases your ability to influence decisions internationally improves.
In the last 20-25 years, we have lifted a large number of people out of poverty and have become a stronger country. We should continue to grow India's power. We are headed in the right direction and we have to continue doing that for the next 25 years.
In doing so, I am confident we will reduce the asymmetry with China and in the process we shall also tackle the 'China Challenge'.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
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