'...the enormous responsibility and faith the youth has put on his shoulders, that he is going to solve their problems.'
What is it that drove millions of young voters in Tamil Nadu to vote for Vijay?
A strong desire for change?
Aspirations for a better future?
Disgruntlement with the present system?
Whatever it is, they wanted maatram- change.
Analysing the young voters of Tamil Nadu is Dr A Kalaiyarasan, Assistant Professor of Economics at the Madras Institute of Development Studies.
"The youth are no longer looking for paternalistic politics, they want empowerment and structural change," Dr Kalaiyarasan tells Rediff's Shobha Warrier.
Do you see a generational shift in Tamil Nadu politics? Not just a generational shift, but an ideological shift also?
I look at this in two ways. Many people have argued that it was a break from the past.
I would not haste to make that conclusion because if you follow Vijay's manifesto carefully and also his speeches, you will see that he has not made a very clear break from past governments both in politics and in policies. Also in the kind of icons he follows.
All these suggest that it is not a break from the past.
Where do you place Vijay ideologically? Another Dravidian party? He sought the blessings of Dravidian leader Veeramani after he became CM.
That is precisely my point. It is not an exaggeration to draw a parallel here.
When C N Annadurai formed his first government in 1967, although there was a tussle between the DMK and the Dravidar Kazhakam led by Periyar, Anna went to Trichy to get Periyar's blessings after he won.
That is exactly what Vijay did.
Of course, people like to compare him with MGR.
So, it is difficult for me to believe that it is going to be a clear break from the past.
You mean, only a generational shift has happened...
I would say there are certain structural conditions in Tamil Nadu that have changed. It is certain the old parties and the old policy framework were not able to address the emerging needs of the youth both in terms of policy and politics.
From the political and economic tools available, we can say that a basic shift is taking place in the economy and society.
One, the Dravidian parties have done a relatively better job with respect to growth and development of the state, notwithstanding corruption, and the shortcomings in the way they conduct politics.
Today Tamil Nadu stands as one of the top states in terms of per capita income, education, healthcare, manufacturing, to name a few indicators.
Compared to any other state, irrespective caste and creed, children going to school, to college and all the way to the job market is much higher in Tamil Nadu.
Butt this is something Tamil Nadu has achieved in relative terms, compared to the rest of India.
Still, the youngsters are disillusioned..
What has happened was what these guys have failed with respect to politics and policy is this.
I would call it second-generation social policy.
What I mean by second generation social policy is children going to school is not enough. The question is, are they learning well there?
It's not getting just a degree, the degree has to help you get a job.
What matters is, the quality of education, the quality of job, the quality of governance, the quality of social relations, the quality of interpersonal relations.
What the Dravidian parties are doing is, they are comparing themselves with respect to what is happening in Gujarat or what is happening in Bihar or UP.
Through this verdict, what the youth are telling us is, don't compare us with what my counterpart is doing in UP or Bihar.
You should look at my life and see whether it has improved in the last 10 years or 20 years? I don't care about what is happening in UP and Bihar. I am only concerned about the quality of life here.
Do you feel with education, aspirations of youngsters have gone up now that they are exposed to what is happening around the world?
Yes, what the youth want from political class is, not talking about comparisons of material indicators like per capita income. It is not that they discard those things. They want more than that.
They want quality of life, quality of education, quality of health... That is one part of the story.
The second part of the story is this model has generated enormous aspirations among the youth.
They have been told that if they go to school, if they get educated, if they go to college, their life will be different, and they will be emancipated from their class background.
Now, the youth is telling us through this verdict that their aspirations have not been fulfilled.
The pathways of mobility which was possible at some point has now increasingly becoming difficult.
They were told if you go to school, if you study, you can conquer the world.
The same system that gave them aspiration did not give them the chance to fulfil the aspiration.
There is a huge gap between generating aspiration and achieving that aspiration.
You have to create a condition not just by generating aspiration, you also create a condition to achieve that aspiration or dreams.
There lies the problem.
So, today's youth feel disappointed, betrayed or frustrated.
Why is it that the youth has not been able to fulfil their aspirations?
Because of two reasons. One, the education itself. There are structural problems in the education they get. It lacks quality.
The second problem is, the economic order of today doesn't produce enough jobs per unit of investment or capital.
Tamil Nadu attracts a lot of capital, a lot of investment. But even that has not been able to generate enough jobs.
The industry also complains that the youth are unemployable, and that their quality is poor....
One, the industry has not been able to generate enough jobs.
Most of the jobs they generate is unskilled work.
For example, let us think of the guy who studied in engineering college for 4 years. None of the companies give him a job and he ends up working as a delivery person or an Uber driver.
Naturally, he gets frustrated. Because you have generated aspirations not just among the young but among his parents, and relatives too that once he studies well and goes to college, he will get a good job and can lead a better life.
On the demand side, the companies are not producing enough jobs like before, and on the supply side, the quality of education is a problem.
The economic order itself has changed. The companies do not need as many workers as they used to.
In the last 5 years, the government gave too much emphasis on the big capital or foreign industries, and not the local MSMEs which would have produced many more jobs.
Tamil Nadu had big capital driven factories like Hyundai, Ford, General Motors etc. and small MSME driven entrepreneurship in every region. These clusters of MSMEs were localised, territorial and the entrepreneurs came from small communities. Not anymore.
Now, the MSMEs have almost declined... the clusters have disappeared..
Yes, there is no connection between the big capital driven companies and local MSMEs. This has created some structural problem within the industry and the economy.
Along with this, you also see an educational quality problem.
The younger generation who voted for Vijay expects a lot from him. Will he be able to fulfil their expectations?
That is a different question.
You can do only what is possible given the realm of fiscal and macroeconomic constraints.
It has very limited powers under its control to influence economic and social policies.
So what you can do within the constraints is the question.
The biggest mistake the last government did in the last five years is, it focused on the 11% growth. It is good, but you have to think of who gets the benefits of the 11% growth.
There was so much expectation and aspiration from the younger generation and they couldn't fulfil them.
Ensuring the basics like good school, good health are not enough for the youth.
But these youngsters feel that Vijay is going to solve the problems. They talk about maatram, change. Is the change going to give them a better life?
We don't know. That's exactly the point. We don't know what he is going to do.
One thing is very clear, the youth are tired of the old system. We do not know whether a new set of politics or a new set of policies is going to solve their problems.
Vijay said he wanted time. Do these young people the patience to wait?
Only time will tell.
Another thing is they are tired of welfare politics.
Tamil Nadu is one state that has followed welfare politics for long, from mid-day meals to free education to cash transfer. It has definitely helped people.
But the new generation does not understand that it was a long struggle making it happen. They think it is given.
In their lifetime they have not seen the struggle attached to making some of these social policies.
They have not seen any struggles of social justice, they have not seen the struggles of basic deprivation. They are not suffering from absolute poverty. None of them went without a meal. That was actually taken care by the state.
Probably they should ask the previous generation, their parents who must have been labourers or artisans. They would tell the real stories of their struggle.
What the youth know is that relative deprivation is going up.
They see that the other guy's family is doing well because his father or mother is connected to some politician. This kind of nepotism makes them angry.
How do you describe the new Chief Minister Vijay's economic outlook?
I don't expect a great break from what has been followed till now.
And you should not also have a great break from the past because Tamil Nadu has been doing well in its industrial policy. Of course, there is scope to improve.
He shouldn't put all the eggs in one basket. He should diversify.
The new government shouldn't be obsessed with an economic growth of 11%.
They should look at where that growth is going to come from. Is the growth going to come from all the sectors, or just a few?
They should create industries which produce jobs, they should create growth which generates decent wages.
The fact is, 11% growth did not commensurate 11% wage rise.
If you think of the population growth in a state when you have 11% growth, you should have 11% per capita income also. But it did not happen.
Somebody's income was growing at a much faster rate than somebody's else's income. Obviously, wages were not growing in tandem with per capita income.
So, what is important is not just about getting investment, it is about quality of governance, distribution of growth and where the growth is coming from is as important.
It is also about generating jobs and generating better wages than about just getting investment.
The youth are not expecting paternalism anymore. They do not expect paternalist welfare from Vijay in the MGR style or Jayalalithaa style of paternalism.
So, a huge responsibility lies on his shoulders...
Yes. I don't know whether he understands the enormous responsibility and faith the youth has put on his shoulders, that he is going to solve their problems.
Also, I have to talk about the new ways of exclusion, the new ways of discrimination. They are very subtle and it questions your dignity.
Today's youth doesn't want to feel left out, doesn't want to judged, doesn't want to be excluded in the wider social economic process.
So, inequality is not just about income and other material factors. Inequality is also about your self-esteem and dignity. That is the new worry.
Photographs curated by Manisha Kotian/Rediff
Feature Presentation: Rajesh Alva/Rediff