'If the RJD loses it would be out of power for nearly 25 years. Meanwhile, the JD-U will have survival issues if it gets less number of seats.'
"The politics of religion is not rewarded neither is it popular in Bihar -- that is a major cultural difference between UP and Bihar. With the change in dynamics it will be interesting to see in what direction the culture shifts in Bihar," says Political Researcher and Election Analyst Sarthak Bagchi.
"This election will also be important for the future of regional parties and the health of democracy," he tells Rediff's Archana Masih in the concluding part of his interview.
How transformative will this election be in electoral history?
This is a very important election. It marks the cusp of the end of the Nitish-Lalu era.
Tejashwi may not be using Lalu's photos in campaign posters, but he gets the loudest cheers at rallies when he says he is Lalu's son.
This is the last election where both Lalu and Nitish are active. It will herald the end of socialist politics in Bihar.
It also leaves a question mark about the future of regional parties in Bihar who have dominated and dictated terms to national parties.
In the Hindi heartland, Bihar is the only state where the BJP has not been able to install a chief minister of its own.
The BJP not only seeks electoral space, but also cultural space.
The politics of religion is not rewarded neither is it popular in Bihar -- that is a major cultural difference between UP and Bihar.
The construction of a grand Sita Mata temple in Sitamarahi for over Rs 800 crore was publicised by the BJP during the campaign.
With the change in dynamics it will be interesting to see in what direction the culture shifts in Bihar.
This election will also be important for the future of regional parties and the health of democracy.
Strong regional parties in Bihar have resulted in a democratic assertion from the backward castes. The share of backward caste MLAs in the Bihar assembly has always been higher than upper caste legislators since 1995 because of these powerful regional parties.
If the RJD loses it would be out of power for nearly 25 years. Meanwhile, the JD-U will have survival issues if it gets less number of seats.
How has Nitish Kumar been able to stay in power and sustain his party despite not having a strong cadre or organisation?
The JD-U does not have organisational capacity, but makes it up with local leaders. It has sustained itself by managing to be in power for two decades.
Nitish Kumar has substituted lack of organisational power through the state bureaucracy.
Jeevika Didis [women entrepreneurs supported by the state's Jivika programme] have also been his campaigners in a way because they have benefited from schemes implemented by the state government. The panchayat mukhiyas, panchayat mitra etc -- all these posts are occupied by people who are vote influencers in their own pockets.
The NDA has the speciality of getting voters to the booth on polling day.
In the Mahagathbandhan, the RJD has a very strong organisation and cadre which can get voters to the booth.
It is commendable that the RJD has sustained itself out of power for 20 years. Even the Shiv Sena couldn't do that and split into two.
However, the Congress does not have that ability except maybe in Seemanchal.
The coalition which can get voters to the polling booth has an advantage.
In that respect, the NDA has an edge over the MGB.
Are women voters Nitish Kumar's biggest constituency?
If women were voting en masse for development schemes and welfare distribution then that would mean that development triumphs caste.
If that was the case then parties would not have to mull over caste equations for deciding candidates. They could have just given tickets to anybody, right?
Therefore that is a rather simplistic narrative.
Of course, we know that women are voting more than men in Bihar, especially in the last three-four elections.
In the 2020 election held during the Corona pandemic, the voting percentage among women was about 60% which is unprecedented.
In 2015, 60.48 % women voted.
One of the reasons why women voters are leading the men is because the latter are going out of the state to earn their livelihood. They do not belong to the salaried or service class and cannot afford to return just to vote.
In the absence of the male, the women in these economically weak households assume decision-making powers. They also make their own political choices.
These women are mostly from the Extremely Backward Caste section. However, the voting choice of Savarana or upper caste women is not as independent compared to their EBC counterparts.
In most cases, Savarna women decide who to vote for after discussing it with family or husband or somebody within the caste.
Nitish Kumar, who is known for bringing development to Bihar, did not have the support of Savarna women in the 2015 election when he was in alliance with Lalu Yadav.
However, in 2025, his alliance with the BJP will help Nitish get the Savarna women's vote.
Therefore, this indicates that women are not a caste or ideology neutral voting bloc. That would be a rather simplistic understanding of a more complex phenomenon.
Much is being said about the Rs 10,000 cash transfer to women to help them start a business given just as the election was announced.
Cash transfers have become a universal popular model across states like the Ladli-Behna Yojana in Madhya Pradesh and the Ladki Behen Yojana in Maharashtra.
Politicians tend to believe that women are more loyal compared to men and will uphold their end of the bargain.
But there is a difference between these schemes in MP and Maharashtra and Nitish Kumar's Rs 10,000 Mukhyamatri Rozgar Yojana.
In Bihar, this is not just transfer of cash, but projected as a scheme to start a local business and empowerment through business.
This is not the first time Nitish Kumar has implemented such a programme. The state government provides 2 lakh rupees to youth from OBC communities to develop a business or for upskilling.
An investigator verifies how the money is put to use and it is disbursed in instalments.
Nitish Kumar has extended this scheme to 1.5 crore women.
What impact is Prashant Kishor's new party going to have?
There is an overestimation of Prashant Kishor. His claim that Jan Suraaj will get more than 150 seats is too far-fetched for a new party that does not have a developed cadre or ideology.
PK is not really talking about an ideology. He is giving solutions that have an appeal and resonance in Bihar. He has done extensive work in the state, but that is not enough.
He undertook a padyatra through the state, but it will take much more. For example, after then Andhra Pradesh chief minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy's death in a helicopter crash, his son Jagan Mohan Reddy went on a yatra to condole the 100 odd people who had died in grief at the news of his father's death.
He met them and shared their grief. It was a connect with the masses which helped him stake a claim. Jagan came with a legacy. PK is not revising any legacy, he is creating one.
Therefore, it needs sustained effort from him on the ground and organisation-building if he has to emerge as a strong competitor and strong political force.
He might get votes in some seats because it is a tight fight which might alter things, but I don't think labels like 'Kingmaker' or 'Vote Cutter' do justice to what his political project is.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff