'It has got to be the biggest error in aviation. If it is the biggest error, then all those individuals in positions of power should be removed because they have caused the biggest meltdown in Indian aviation history.'
India's largest airline, with over 60% market share, IndiGo, has triggered an unprecedented aviation crisis, cancelling thousands of flights in early December 2025 and stranding lakhs of passengers.
The chaos stems from the airline's failure to plan for stricter pilot FDTL (Flight Duty Times Limitations) regulations, the second phase of which became effective from November 1, compounded by its 63% market share.
Aviation consultant Sanjay Lazar, CEO of Avialaz Consultants, reveals that IndiGo ceased pilot recruitment despite knowing the requirements and requested 900 additional flights for the winter despite pilot shortages.
In this two-part interview with Prasana D Zore/Rediff, Lazar examines whether the planning failure was intentional and questions why immediate action was not taken when warning signs appeared.
Why do you characterise this as a great meltdown caused by inadequate planning?
The crucial question is whether this was intentional or unintentional.
Every airline participated in the DGCA's Civil Aviation Requirements (CAR) discussions from January 2024 onwards. Everyone requested a year to recruit additional personnel.
Yet IndiGo ceased recruitment in May-June 2025. I have been reliably informed that they removed approximately 40 senior first officers in September as well. Clearly, they did not have adequate numbers (to operate the 900 additional flights under the new FDTL norms).
Phase one of this CAR came into effect in July 2025. The high court agreed to phased implementation -- phase one in July, phase two in November.
When you operate such huge numbers, you know the pilot requirement. The question has to be asked then why would you deliberately cease recruitment?
So despite knowing they were short of pilots, IndiGo still requested an increase in flights for winter?
Precisely. The summer schedule comprised 14,114 flights over seven months. They then requested 15,014 flights for the winter season which lasts merely five months.
You wished to operate almost a thousand flights more in five months than you had operated in seven months, that too with stricter rules and heading into a fog season. You barely possessed sufficient pilots to complete the 14,000, yet you wished to execute 15,000 flights. Obviously, there has been a major miscalculation.
IndiGo is amongst the smartest operators in the market. I am 100% certain they conducted roster testing. They must have obtained results -- only they know whether this schedule was deliverable.
But why would IndiGo do this purposely? It would impact revenues and stock price. It's a listed company.
I do not suggest that IndiGo acted purposely. I am allowing the listener and reader to judge for themselves, and for the investigation to determine.
Perhaps the individuals (at the helm of affairs in IndiGo) were simply not competent enough, miscalculated, or misread the results. Either way, it reflects terribly poorly on the airline.
However, there exists a concept called slot blocking. When you block every available flight slot because you are the dominant carrier, other operators then cannot obtain those flights. Unless you are an Air India size, a smaller Akasa or SpiceJet cannot contest against you.
Another critical factor: Between November 1 and November 30, IndiGo is on record stating they cancelled a thousand flights and informed the DGCA (the aviation regulator). If you have already witnessed a hit of a thousand flights in the first month of the new rules, then alarm bells should have been ringing.
So IndiGo knew what was likely to happen during their winter schedules?
So was the ministry of civil aviation. That is my point. Between 2nd and 7th December, we lost 2,300 flights.
On the 5th, they cancelled a thousand flights. On the 6th, some 550 flights.
Mind you, I have been a great admirer of IndiGo. I have termed them the gold standard of operations in my articles and presentations over the last few years.
So what has changed?
It appears that there has been some change in middle management, upper management in the last six to twelve months. I will not name individuals -- it would be absolutely unethical. I am an objective analyst, it is for IndiGo to do the soul searching and the investigation to dig out the truth.
What I am attempting to convey is that there has been a change in management philosophy.
The once happy staff, Pilots etc, are no longer happy.
For those asking why only Indigo? IndiGo maintained a very lean model, which is why Air India was not affected whilst IndiGo was.
Air India operates a full-service carrier model. Whereas IndiGo would deploy five to six sets per aircraft (meaning 10 to 12 odd pilots rotating on each physical plane throughout its daily operations), Air India has seven-and-a-half sets per aircraft (15 pilots per plane, providing greater buffer for rest, leave, and contingencies).
Over 400 aircraft, which could represent a difference of a thousand pilots.
IndiGo's buffer is 6% to 7% for leave, reserve, standby, sickness. Air India maintains approximately 20%. The margin for error is built into a full-service model.
Moreover, winter requires additional pilots because of the fog season. The DGCA requires all airlines to maintain more buffer during this period.
I do not believe IndiGo would have wished this mayhem upon itself. Examine the market capitalisation -- they have lost some Rs 250 billion (Rs 25,000 crore) in value in the last five days.
Do you perceive some kind of sabotage?
They (IndiGo) are one of the biggest operators in the world. I do not think they could have been sabotaged from outside. If at all, it is an internal issue, but I do not perceive that either.
It has got to be the biggest error in aviation. If it is the biggest error, then all those individuals in positions of power should be removed because they are obviously grossly incompetent. They have caused the biggest meltdown in Indian aviation history.
Six days of cancellations, lakhs of passengers stranded -- it's unprecedented...
Passengers aside, do consider the effect on the Indian economy. You could have had a billionaire businessman travelling to set up something, workers going for contracts, So much productivity lost.
Unfortunately, this is the same company that conducted the IATA annual general meeting in Delhi six months ago. What a tragic fall from grace.
I am still an admirer of IndiGo's original style of working. I consider them destined to be among the top five airlines in the world in the next five years. It is not as though I am a detractor, I wish them well, but I will not hesitate to call a spade a spade.
But do passengers in India genuinely have a choice? How can such huge concentration of market power be made less risky for the whole aviation system?
You are discussing an ecosystem. 63% market share belongs to IndiGo. I read somewhere that on 50% of its routes, IndiGo enjoys a monopoly. There is nobody else. You will have to decouple them from numerous routes. This is where structural change must occur.
If you have to attain stability from a national integrity standpoint and prevent this embarrassment from ever recurring from any airline, you must decouple the monopoly/duopoly. You must introduce more competition. SpiceJet will be delighted to fly there. So will Akasa, Air India Express, Star Air.
And by 'you,' you mean the civil aviation ministry?
Yes. The Union government. My first response to both the (Union) Minister (of Civil Aviation Ram Mohan Naidu) and the DGCA is: Rather than suspend this CAR and grant them dispensation, why did you not instruct them (IndiGo) to roll back your schedule, operate what you can manage with your pilots?
In old English, grandmothers used to say, 'Cut your suit according to your cloth.' If you possess 100 pilots, only operate those hundred routes that you can. Do not aim for 400. That is what should have been executed rather than dislocate the entire mechanism, and besmirch our national reputation.
What recovery has been achieved with the CAR suspension? Hundreds of their (IndiGo) pilots are still all over the place.
The DGCA granted IndiGo a temporary exemption until February 10. The minister subsequently suspended everything that the DGCA had implemented. If you read that order, there is no date, no reference indicating which CAR is applicable now. All (previous) orders of the DGCA (related to FDTLs) are suspended (external link).
Let us not forget -- this is court-mandated CAR. This came from the (Delhi) high court. I do not know if they comprehend the significance. If somebody were to challenge this, this order would be struck down, I believe.
What specific penalties (on IndiGo) and compensation (for passengers) measures should have been imposed when this commenced?
There are two parts -- penalties and compensation. We have wasted six days. This action materialised only when the furore erupted on social media and news channels. On the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, everything was proceeding smoothly between the DGCA and Indigo. But when did matters truly escalate?
When everyone became angry across all channels and social media, when the PMO (prime minister's office) stepped in. That is when everyone started panicking with 'We will have high-power inquiry, we will do this.'
But on the first day, people paid lakhs for flights. Who is going to compensate them (for their losses due to cancellations) on 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th? My own family was diverted, couldn't land in Pune, landed in Mumbai. I had to hire a taxi because IndiGo abandoned them after five hours. They were in transit for approximately 12 hours.
What should have been the immediate action?
A common sense individual would have stated: Summon them to the table, establish a control room in the Ministry (which exists). Let IndiGo roll back its flights and commence DGCA supervised recovery.
I have confirmed -- there are almost 200 to 300 (IndiGo) pilots still stranded across the country. I know so many pilots who claim they were never rostered during this period.
This is not a pilot issue. This is an internal systems issue within IndiGo.