'If you stay out of power for long, you become irrelevant, your party members become restless and start looking to jump ship.'
"Politics will focus on local issues and how much local governments can convince their own people."
"National issues work in the general elections, but in state elections, the state has its own strategy and people vote as per their requirements and state demands," observe Dr Bibhuti Bhusan Biswas, assistant professor, Central University of Jharkhand, Ranchi.
Dr Biswas was sector magistrate in-charge of the smooth and fair conduct of election in seven polling booths in the state.
"Voters are sending a message to the central government that dominance of one party will not happen anymore because people will opt for another alternative if you don't perform," Dr Bisws tells Rediff.com's Archana Masih in the concluding part of the interview.
After the Congress' worst ever performance in Maharashtra and being a distant second in Jharkhand there has been a push from the Trinamool Congress with an impressive win in the six by-elections in West Bengal for Mamata Banerjee to head the INDIA group.
Is such an idea likely to resonate among the partners of the INDIA bloc?
West Bengal politics is very different from the rest of India. The TMC's support comes from Muslims [27%], scheduled castes [24%], scheduled tribes [6%] of the population. The BJP is essentially seen as the party of upper castes and certain OBC castes.
Mamata has support in rural West Bengal and the TMC has established dominance in the state. The BJP has no viable face in Bengal.
Mamata's polices like Lakshmir Bhandar [Rs 1,000 per month to women from economically weaker sections, 1,200 to SC/STs] has worked.
Students in West Bengal are getting scholarships, irrespective of caste from school level right up to university.
People have come to expect something from the government, but despite the TMC's big win in the by-elections, Mamata Banerjee can't be the face of the INDIA group.
Even though she commands respect within the alliance, she does not have nationwide impact.
The Gandhis have an all-India appeal, even in South India, and Rahul Gandhis's yatra helped the Congress perform well in Lok Sabha.
Hemant Soren and Mamata Banerjee are good partners of the INDIA group, but cannot be the face of the alliance.
How will the result in Maharashtra play out?
Maharashtra politics was very complex since the last assembly election in 2019.
The split in the Shiv Sena took place basically for power. Hindutva was the main agenda of the Shiv Sena and the Eknath Shinde group took the Hinutva ideology with it.
Uddhav Thackeray failed to convince his followers that his ideology was the same as his father's. He diluted the Sena's Hindutva ideology by aligning with the Congress.
The strike rate of the Shiv Sena and NCP in 2024 shows that both Shinde and Ajit Pawar have got legitimacy now.
Sharad Pawar is a towering political leader, but age is catching up and his communication with the people is not what it used to be.
Impactful leaders from both Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar's parties have shifted to the Shinde and Ajit Pawar groups.
Another factor is that the Congress does not have a face in Maharashtra.
The survival of these three political parties in the state is a challenge now.
The Congress will sustain, but Sharad Pawar's NCP and Uddhav Sena's political future is shaky, because politics is ultimately about capturing power.
If you stay out of power for long, you become irrelevant, your party members become restless and start looking to jump ship.
The BJP has got 132 seats and only need the support of one political party in the Mahayuti -- the Shiv Sena or NCP.
It is to be seen how the BJP will share space and power with its two partners.
The Sena and NCP have 98 seats together and it will be challenging to manage this alliance if Shinde is not given chief ministership.
What impact will the result of these two state elections have in the national context?
Trend shows that people are becoming more conscious about choosing their representatives and women are being given more importance through different policies all over India.
The Delhi elections are next and Arvind Kejriwal is making statements that the BJP will stop the schemes started by AAP.
Therefore, politics is revolving around who can give more.
If you see voting patterns, rural people voted more and women came out in great numbers.
Politics will revolve around local issues and how much local governments can convince their own people.
National issues work in the general elections, but in state elections, the state has its own strategy and people vote as per their requirements and state demands.
Voters are sending a message to the central government that dominance of one party will not happen anymore because people will opt for another alternative if you don't perform.
People are becoming more conscious about choosing their representatives.
Perform and flourish, there is no other way.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
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