'Jal Jungle Zameen Trumped Roti Beti Mati'

'Jairam Mahto's new party dented the NDA because he pulled a lot of the OBC vote.'

"Kalpana Soren has played an important role in the JMM's victory. She participated in every tribal festival and travelled through the state when her husband Hemant Soren was imprisoned. She was crucial in convincing people about their tribal culture and drove home the point that JMM is the best party for the state and the BJP was a party of upper castes."

"She has a strong chance of being in the cabinet because female voters will be disappointed if she does not," says Dr Bibhuti Bhusan Biswas, assistant professor, Central University of Jharkhand, Ranchi.

Dr Biswas was sector magistrate in-charge of the smooth and fair conduct of election in seven polling booths in the state.

In a phone interview with Rediff.com's Archana Masih, Dr Biswas spoke about the reasons for JMM's stunning win, the BJP's defeat, the declining graph of the Congress and the emergence of a new young leader in the state.

What are your foremost takeaways from the verdict in Jharkhand?

JMM, BJP, Congress, Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha -- the new emerging party started by Jairam Mahato -- were the four parties dominating the political scenario in Jharkhand.

1. 26.8 million people connected with the JMM's Maiya Yojana policy which targeted female voters and proved beneficial for the party.
2. The INDIA group settled seat sharing arrangement without any dispute, whereas there were some pulls and push in the NDA.
3. JMM focused on state and local politics while the NDA was focusing on external factors having limited impact on Jharkhand politics like Bangladeshi infiltrators and Rohingya refugees. JMM was able to convince people that the border was controlled by the central government.
4. The NDA appointed the Assam CM (Himanta Biswa Sarma) and former MP CM (Shivraj Sigh Chouhan) who were seen as outsiders which had a negative impact on the people. The BJP did not have a chief ministerial face.
5. The Jairam Mahto factor dented the NDA because his Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha pulled a lot of the OBC vote.
6. Hemant Soren's imprisonment had an emotional effect on the tribal people who think of the JMM as a tribal party that speaks about their Jal Jungle Zameen. The NDA gave the slogan Roti Beti Mati ki Pukar which was overshadowed by Jal Jungle Zameen.
7. JMM has a well organised ground force. Its door-to-door campaign helped them greatly.

People voted for those who performed and voted out those who didn't. Four sitting ministers lost which showed that people voted smartly.

What complexion will Hemant Soren's second consecutive government have? What policies will it pursue?

It will be a challenging task.

Hemant Soren has made many promises. The Maiya Yojana will be increased to Rs 2,500 per month and he will have to mobilise this large amount.

He has promised improved law and order which is not in good shape.

He needs to improve infrastructure.

He has said he will strengthen the education sector and revive of rural education and scholarships.

He has promised a boost to indigenous craft and opportunity to local people.

Jharkhand despite being mineral rich is a poor state and people have expectations that the government will come with good ideas and policies.

What kind of relationship will Hemant Soren strike with the Centre in the second term?

In his first statements after the win he said the PM congratulated him and he hopes that Jharkhand will flourish in the next five years.

He has given indication that the Central government cannot be ignored because of the nature of cooperative federalism.

State governments are well aware that if they do not cooperate with the Centre, they risk not receiving any package or help. Hemant Soren's dominating narrative was that more Rs 1 lakh crore has been withheld by the central government.

If this scenario continues, it will not bode well for the state government.

Therefore, he has to govern cautiously, and if you see the results most tribal candidates have won. He will have to include all components of the social fabric and perform better than last time.

Will his wife Kalpana Soren be inducted in the cabinet?

His wife took over immediately after he went to prison and has played an important role in this victory.

She participated in every tribal festival and travelled through the state. She was crucial in convincing the women and stressing about their tribal culture.

She drove home the point that JMM is the best party for the state and the BJP was a party of upper castes.

She has a strong chance of being in the cabinet because female voters will be disappointed if she does not.

Moreover, in future, if Hemant Soren encounters problems with the CBI, ED, he has the option of appointing his wife as CM. He will not take a risk like what happened with Champai Soren who was made CM for five months and then joined the BJP.

The Congress did not perform well in Jharkhand. What future does it have in the state?

The Congress is not consistent. They are excited after a win, but their outreach at the ground level is weak.

The BJP, meanwhile, is visible on the ground for the next 5 years even if it loses the election.

The Congress relies on the Gandhi family to keep the party intact. They do not have an organised cadre on the ground level like the BJP.

The party has no leader in the state. They gain because of aligning with the JMM, and cannot be in a dominant role.

The JKLM party has emerged as a factor in the state led by a young leader. If people want an alternative, they will not see it in the Congress, but rather from a party rooted in the state.

Similarly, the BJP also does not have a face to counter Hemant Soren.

The Congress will survive as long as it is part of the INDIA group in the state.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com