'If Kejriwal is arrested...'

'It could backfire on the BJP and boost the Opposition parties.'

Within hours of the Supreme Court of India denying bail to his Aam Aadmi Party colleague Manish Sisodia on Monday, October 30, 2023, in the now scrapped Delhi excise policy case, the Enforcement Directorate issued summons to Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal.

On Monday the Supreme Court noted that the accusation of 'windfall gains' of Rs 338 crore (Rs 3.38 billion) to wholesale liquor dealers was 'tentatively supported' by evidence.

According to the Enforcement Directorate, the Aam Aadmi Party government in Delhi gave out the wholesale liquor business to private entities at a 12 percent margin, in return for a 6 percent kickback.

The ED has charged that the policy was formulated with deliberate loopholes to promote a cartel and to get monetary benefits through the backdoor -- to AAP leaders.

Even if Kejriwal is not arrested on November 2 when he appears before the ED, it is undeniable that the case has dealt a serious dent to his image as his party was formed on the anti-corruption plank.

So, what does it mean for the future of the AAP and Kejriwal?

Syed Firdaus Ashraf/Rediff.com spoke to political commentator and former AAP member Ashutosh to find out what could happen next.

How do you see Arvind Kejriwal being summoned by the Enforcement Directorate for questioning in the Delhi liquor scam case?

The Aam Aadmi Party must take this development very seriously because this comes soon after the Supreme Court denied bail to Manish Sisodia.

And because the whole argument of AAP falls flat that Sisodia has not done anything wrong.

There will be some kind of suspicion in the people's mind, and I too do not know the truth, but the fact is the Supreme Court has denied bail to Manish Sisodia. This is a very serious crisis for AAP.

Delhi BJP chief Virendra Sachdeva has been alleging that Kejriwal is the kingpin of the excise duty scam.

I am not in a position to say anything as I am not aware of the details of the case so I cannot pass judgment.

The way the Opposition parties are being hounded across the country by different central agencies, this creates a suspicion that this is more of a political issue than a legal issue.

Having said so, one cannot deny the fact that the Supreme Court denied bail to Manish Sisodia.

As far as the BJP is concerned, they are the principal Opposition party to AAP in Delhi so why they should not say such things? They should say such things because they are opposing Kejriwal and his party in politics.

They have a right to cast aspersions on Kejriwal's integrity as it is their job as an Opposition party. And they are doing their job.

Two weeks ago the Supreme Court was making different kind of observations on Sisodia, but on Monday the same court spoke of a money trail amounting to Rs 338 crore.

During the hearing of the case the impression that (AAP) created was the enforcement agencies had no proof. This was being established by AAP, but unfortunately for them the apex court's observation in the case is entirely different.

These, though, are only observations and not the verdict of the court. In court it is always the verdict that takes precedence over observations; observations have no bearing on the case.

Kejriwal was called by the Central Bureau of Investigation in the same case in April and now by the Enforcement Directorate. How badly has his image of a clean politician been affected?

This will have some kind of dent for sure because senior AAP leaders are already in jail on allegations of corruption.

There will surely be questions in people's mind why AAP leaders are in jail.

But the bigger question in their mind will be, why are they not getting bail? And that too not from the lower courts, sessions courts, CBI courts or ED court, but the Supreme Court of India.

And when the Supreme Court passes a no bail judgment, this is the finality of the judiciary because people still have faith in the Supreme Court of India.

People are going to wonder and ask why AAP leaders are not getting bail from the Supreme Court of India, this means there is something wrong going on.

I am not sure though what will happen in one year or two years in this case as the court can give all AAP leaders a clean chit, like it happened in the 2G scam case.

The whole world believed that former minister A Raja was involved in corruption but nothing came out of the 2G case and he was found not guilty in the corruption case.

He spent a long time in jail and his credibility was demolished during the incarceration, but he came out clean in the 2G case.

It is not that the court has pronounced AAP leaders guilty in the corruption case, but they will have to go through this process of law.

Can we say AAP is on a very weak political wicket?

There is no doubt about it, but what is more serious is hypothetically, suppose the ED arrests Arvind Kejriwal tomorrow, what will happen to the party? Who will run the party?

Who will replace Arvind Kejriwal as the chief minister of Delhi? And the person who replaces Kejriwal, will he be accepted by other AAP leaders and the party at large as their leader?

This will create a problem for AAP.

In the past there have been examples of other party chiefs going to jail, like Lalu Prasad Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal and J Jayalalithaa of the AIADMK, but their parties had a long history in politics which unfortunately is not the case with AAP. It is a very young party which has not completed even a decade in active Indian politics.

The two questions that AAP will face in case Kejriwal is arrested are: Who will run the party? And who will run the Delhi government?

There are many ambitious political leaders in AAP and one will have to wait and see who will be accepted as the leader if at all Kejriwal goes to jail.

It is being said that Kejriwal's wife could take over as chief minister. What do you think?

I am not aware of this development. I have no such inputs.

When I spoke to you earlier, you said if the Delhi government's excise policy was so good why did the AAP have to withdraw it, thus raising doubts in the minds of the people. In retrospect, do you think AAP should not have withdrawn the excise policy?

Withdrawing the excise policy was a mistake of the AAP government. They should not have done it.

When the CBI inquiry was ordered, they immediately withdrew the excise policy. Thus proving that 2 plus 2 is 4 because people are obviously going to raise questions. If the policy was so good, why did they withdraw it when the CBI inquiry was ordered?

In that context, I had said it was a mistake and I stand by my statement.

Is the BJP worried about the AAP and Congress coming together in the 2024 general elections?

There is a pattern that has been set up by the BJP ever since it came to power in 2014, and that pattern is to discredit the Opposition parties.

Why are these central investigating agencies hounding Opposition leaders left, right and centre and putting them in jail? Whether it is the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal or any other Opposition party in any state which is against the BJP?

I am not sure, therefore, whether it is a general pattern or a game plan for the 2024 general elections.

I am not very sure whether the coming together of AAP and the Congress will defeat the BJP in Delhi because sometimes these kind of alliances backfire badly too.

Arvind Kejriwal carries a very clean image in the eyes of the public and has a very popular public image in other parts of India too. His arrest can backfire for the BJP.

At this moment I am not sure whether he will be arrested or not, but if he is arrested it could backfire on the BJP and boost the Opposition parties which have been saying all along that the BJP is playing vindictive politics.

Kejriwal's arrest could be a double-edged sword for the BJP.

The BJP may want to paint Kejriwal as a corrupt leader, but the people may not believe so and feel that he is being victimised.

In Bihar Lalu Prasad Yadav was arrested for corruption and also convicted for his crime, but he still won the popular vote and his party formed the government.