'We should expect extreme heat, extreme rains, floods, landslides and maybe cyclones. Not just this year, in the coming year as well.'
El Nino is back; not just back but back as Super El Nino.
El Nino is a natural climatic phenomenon due to the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
What does it mean to global weather when El Nino happens?
The first sign of the El Nino impact for India is the South West monsoon, which is expected to arrive on May 26, will be a below average one.
The major impact of El Nino globally will be a rise in global average temperatures.
Predictions are that there will be severe drought conditions in Central America, northern South America, Australia and Indonesia.
On the other hand, parts of Central Asia, East Africa and northern Peru/southern Ecuador may face heavy rains and will have an increased risk of floods.
In India, the Indian Meterological Department has predicted a weak and below normal south west monsoon.
Several states across northern, western and central India are expected to get below-normal monsoon.
Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Gujarat and Rajasthan may face drought like conditions.
But southern coastal areas may have heavy rains and flood-like situations.
Reports also say that El Nino 2026 could be more severe than the 1982, 1997 and 2015 El Ninos.
Dr Roxy Mathew Koll is a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.
"Most of the global forecasts have shown that in terms of magnitude and strength, this El Nino might possibly surpass the strong El Ninos of the last recorded history of, maybe 150 years or so," Dr Koll tells Rediff's Shobha Warrier.
Why is the magnitude of this El Nino so strong? Is it because the global temperature is going up?
Yes, to a large extent, it is because the global temperature is rising.
We know oceans absorb more than 90% of the heat from global warming.
So, if you consider all earth system elements like ocean, atmosphere, land and the cryosphere or the ice covered areas and all, most of the additional heat due to global warming, due to carbon dioxide emissions, etc is absorbed by the oceans.
The average depth of the ocean is four kilometres average.
And water has a very strong heat capacity, which means, it can store more heat for a longer time compared to air or land or the soil or rock.
Because of this capacity, it keeps absorbing additional heat.
Remember 73% of the earth surface is covered by water, and this water is 4 kilometres deep. So, it is like a huge reservoir of heat.
El Nino is a phenomenon where the ocean kind of chucks out the heat.
Like a volcano eruption?
It's a bit similar.
El Nino is part of a natural cycle called El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), where you have El Nino in the centre, and the water around gets warm, then it gets cold, then it gets warm, and then it gets cool. This happens over a period of 5 to 7 years.
This is called El- Nino Southern Oscillation.
If the ocean is carrying more heat, El Nino will be gets even warmer.
Even the La Nina, which is supposed to be a cool event, is warmer than the La Ninas of the past.
Due to global warming?
Yes. So, the El Nino or the El Nino Oscillation itself is now a warm water event.
What I mean is, the El Ninos in the recent period have double the magnitude of what we had some 50 years ago.
It has serious consequences globally as well.
In what way will the strong El Nino impact global temperatures and climate? IMD has predicted a below normal southwest monsoon.
As water covers one third of the globe's surface, a large phenomenon like El Nino in the Pacific Ocean will change the entire climatic system across the globe.
What happens is that warmer conditions in the Pacific change the conditions in the Indian Ocean, South Asian region also.
Generally when you have El Nino, the winds are weaker than usual during the monsoon. So, to a large extent the monsoon will be weak.
On the other hand, when you have La Nina, the winds are stronger than usual, so the monsoon will be stronger then. This is the pattern 50% of the time.
This does not mean that there won't be any extreme rains.
It is more like the distribution of the monsoon will be skewed. For example, you would have more extreme rains followed by long dry spells, and again extreme rains.
IMD also predicts that in some parts of India, there will be extreme rains and in some parts it will be very dry conditions. Why such extremes in different areas?
During the monsoon, winds carry all the moisture from the Indian Ocean, and release over the mainland.
Because of global warming, the Arabian Sea is also warm. So, moisture supply is stronger.
Even though the monsoon winds are weak due to El Nino, they carry more moisture.
So, whenever these winds are active, it will release all that moisture in the form of extreme rain.
Because the monsoon winds are weak, they reach only in places along the coast. Also, in parts of central India and parts of the north east.
On the whole, the monsoon winds that carry more moisture are much more direct even though weak.
But there would be regions like parts of north India, where the winds do not penetrate that much inland. So, in those regions, rains will be fewer which can result in drought.
This is the reason why we have this kind of contrast in rainfall.
So, it means more rainfall in the coastal areas and dry spell in the interiors?
Yes, to a large extent. For example, maybe the Marathwada, Vidarbha regions in Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand, might receive lesser rains.
The coastal areas might receive extreme rain for short periods, and not continuous rain through the monsoon season. Only short extreme spells.
Because of both the wet and dry extremes, we should be prepared for water security issues particularly from a water security and agriculture security point of view.
We should be ready to save water for individual family needs and also farm needs through the season and beyond.
That is the area where we should be planning in advance before the monsoon itself.
That is because when it falls even if the amount of water would be large, it will either get flushed out into the river and then into the sea.
There won't be sufficient time for that water to spread around and percolate into the soil.
Since recharging of the soil won't happen, you will see the soil getting dry immediately after extreme rainfall.
Even the rivers might go dry soon enough.
Will the El Nino affect the North East monsoon also in India?
We do not have enough clarity on the impact of El Nino on the north east. So, I would say this will continue for the current monsoon season. But the impact in water security might creep into the rest of the year as well.
On a global scale, 2026 could be the warmest year ever recorded.
El Nino starts around the summer, extends during the winter, and then continues until next March or so.
It means 2026 and 2027 will be the warmest years that we have ever recorded.
It was reported that because of the Super El Nino, there will be drought in the US while South America will have heavy rainfall and flooding, and Australia, Southeast Asia will have prolonged drought. So, this El Nino is going to have different impacts in different continents...
It is based on how the heat is concentrated in one area changes the circulation of rains and rain path across the globe.
If you have extremely warm conditions in the central and east Pacific, it means there is more evaporation and more moisture in the regions close to that.
And the El Nino phenomenon occurs close to the South American region. So, there will be more moisture over that region, and it will result in more rain over South America, maybe Brazil and all the countries nearby.
It also means moisture content in other areas decline. For example, North America will get less rains. Australia also will get less rains.
Generally the part of the Pacific, that's the West Pacific close to Australia is a warmer region. Now, because the warmer zone has shifted to East, the rains in Australia will be reduced further this year.
It is said that the economic damage caused by 97-98 El Nino ran into trillions of dollars. When the world is going through other calamities also like the Iran war, how is 2026 going to be economically?
If you look at the earlier El Nino years, everything from fuel prices to agriculture prices change and had an impact on global trade as well.
For example, if you look at India, when the monsoon is weak, agricultural production and exports also will come down.
Then, in some regions where it is dry and hot, the fuel prices for cooling will increase. Naturally, fuel prices will also go up. All these are linked.
It is going to be difficult for people.
One good thing is, with scientific advances, we can to a large extent see what awaits us well in advance.
There is a lot of research related to El Nino available now. It shows the kind of impact El Nino will have, whether it's related to rain or heat or agriculture production or fuel. All this is well studied regionally.
So based on that, you can take precautions. That is a good thing. This will help us reduce the negative impact, to some extent.
Reports say the El Nino that is developing in the Pacific Ocean between May and July 2026 could even rival the 1982, 1997 and 2015 ones. Is that why it is called Super El Nino?
Because this El Nino is going to be stronger than the 97-98 one, do you think the economic damage also will be severe for the world?
One difference I would say in 1997-1998 was we didn't have proper forecasting system on a global scale. So, we did not know much about El Nino then.
In fact, it was the 82-83 El Nino that made scientists start observing the El Nino phenomenon closely.
The 97-98 El Nino was the one all scientists observed and studied very closely.
In those days, many countries across the globe did not have proper forecast systems or early warnings and disaster management systems and all.
Compared to that, we are well placed with information and systems in place that can be, to some extent, put into action.
At the same time, what we are seeing is generally in disasters more lives are saved compared to that 1997 period. But property loss actually has increased in the recent period.
We are not able to build climate resilient properties whether it is roads or infrastructure buildings or houses or farms. That is far away.
We are able to evacuate people if there is extreme rain or floods. We are able to do some disaster management.
But property is still lost. When people come back to their houses and farms, their houses are gone, their cars are gone, their possessions are gone.
So, what can we expect from this El Nino?
We should expect extreme heat, extreme rains, floods, landslides and maybe cyclones. Not just this year, in the coming year as well.
We should be perpetually ready for these kinds of extreme climatic events which are already amplified, and are going to intensify further into the future.
Getting ready for the calamities is the only way ahead.
In fact, it has to be an electoral agenda. But it is seldom discussed during the elections despite us being seriously impacted.
Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/Rediff
Photographs curated by Anant Salvi/Rediff