France today increasingly resembles the Italy of the past, when governments fell with bewildering regularity, prime ministers came and went in rapid succession, and political instability became the norm rather than the exception, point out Krishnan Srinivasan and Manoj Mohanka.
In a vote of no confidence on September 8, French MPs ousted Prime Minister François Bayrou, pushing France into the prospect of having its fifth prime minister in less than two years.
An economic crisis, civil unrest, and parliamentary deadlock now converge, deepening the country's malaise and casting doubt over the remainder of President Emmanuel Macron's tenure.
France today increasingly resembles the Italy of the past, when governments fell with bewildering regularity, prime ministers came and went in rapid succession, and political instability became the norm rather than the exception.
Bayrou, a 74-year-old political veteran, had been in office only since December last year, though he outlasted his immediate predecessor who survived barely three months.
He proposed a drastic budget with $52 billion in savings, including pension cuts and the abolition of two public holidays, notably Whit Monday and another holiday, aimed at boosting productivity.
His plan sought to bring France's deficit -- nearly double the EU's three percent ceiling --under control.
Under the EU's Stability and Growth Pact, Brussels is pressing France to meet that limit by 2029 or risk sanctions, a pressure point Bayrou highlighted in defence of his austerity plan.
The proposed measures were met with public anger, though Bayrou and economists warned that the EU's second-largest economy faced a Greek-style debt crisis if it did not act urgently.
Before the vote, Bayrou told lawmakers: 'You have the power to bring down the government, but you do not have the power to erase reality.'
'Expenses will continue to rise, and the burden of debt, already unbearable, will grow heavier and more costly.'
But parliament rejected his appeal with 364 votes against and only 194 in favour.
In an unusual convergence, the Socialists and National Rally, despite deep ideological differences, united to reject Bayrou's budget, with the former opposing cuts to social programmes and the latter seizing a chance to weaken Macron.
Socialist MP Céline Thiebault-Martinez declared that it 'once again penalises the most vulnerable, working-class families and ordinary workers.'
Instead, her party advocates raising taxes on the wealthy, achieving only half the savings Bayrou proposed, and amortising the debt over a longer period.
She dismissed warnings of an impending Greek-style collapse as 'false arguments made to scare us.'
But the numbers remain stark. France has not balanced its budget since 1974.
France's debt, at 114% of GDP, ranks third-highest in Europe behind Greece and Italy, though Portugal and Spain face similar pressures.
Annual debt servicing already exceeds spending on defence or education.
France's fiscal squeeze is also worsened by external shocks -- from higher energy costs linked to the Ukraine war, to trade and tariff uncertainties that began under the Trump administration and continue to ripple through global markets.
The far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen and rising in national polls, favours new parliamentary elections, confident of increasing its share of MPs and gaining leverage.
Its MP Gaetan Dussaussaye declared: 'For eight years now (since Macron was elected) it's always been the same recipe: More rules, more taxes, preventing the French economy from working and moving forward.'
But when pressed on their alternative, his party is vague: 'What we want is a complete change in how the economy is managed in France. That means giving the power back to the French people to decide.'
Macron now faces a familiar trilemma: Call new elections in hopes of a sympathetic majority, appoint yet another centrist or technocrat prime minister where the previous four have failed, or resign -- something he has ruled out despite growing opposition.
Far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon has urged Macron to 'go himself', while Le Pen has declared the end of 'the agony of a phantom government'.
Macron insists he will serve until 2027, continuing to style himself as Europe's leader against Russia in Ukraine despite his faltering position at home.
His gamble on snap elections in June last year produced the fractured lower chamber that now blocks his every move.
There is a pervasive feeling among the French public that the political system is broken; that no one feels represented on issues like purchasing power or job creation.
This disillusionment has fuelled the rise of Le Pen's National Rally, which currently leads the polls and is favoured to win the presidency in 2027 -- if not sooner.
A day of civil action has been called for September 10.
Organisers hope to shut businesses and block major roads, while trade unions are already planning fresh strikes and protests.
If Macron fails to act swiftly, France risks deeper political paralysis and greater public frustration.
Squaring this circle will prove immensely difficult. Both France and Macron personally face stormy weather.
Krishnan Srinivasan is a former foreign secretary. Manoj Mohanka serves on several corporate boards and follows geopolitics closely.
Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/Rediff