America Stoops to Conquer

The Biden administration's failure in stopping two major wars and several minor ones was seen as a major disaster by many Americans and the world at large, observes Ambassador T P Sreenivasan.

The tragic figure after the announcement of the US presidential election undoubtedly is Kamala Harris, but next to her is Professor Allan Lichman, a political historian, widely known as 'the Nostradamus of US Presidential elections', who predicted victory for the Democratic candidate.

Lichman had correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the ten elections since 1984.

His reaction when his prediction went wrong was that 'Democracy is gone!' His methodology, based on a set of '13 keys to the White House' failed miserably, pointing to the complexity of the electoral landscape in the US this year, which defied the application of any set of rules.

Donald Trump's past history as president in his first term and his behaviour after his defeat, which resulted in a call for insurrection by a president, must have been the key that disqualified him in Lichman's calculations.

He was a convicted felon, who would not have come anywhere near victory in any other country.

But in actual fact, Trump put on the mantle of a saviour of his country and carried the day because his rival promised nothing but more of the Biden legacy.

With all her charm, laughter and polished language, Kamala Harris had no alternate plan to offer on any of the burning issues of the nation.

Although statistics showed that the American economy was doing well, inflation and the resultant price rise was the biggest issue in the election and Harris did not even recognise it as a major concern to deal with.

Harris also had nothing to offer on the question of illegal immigrants, whom Trump portrayed as having played havoc with the American social fabric by their criminal activities.

At the same time, Trump made it clear that he would not block migration of professionals, who will play a significant role in the field of technology.

The American public is generally wary of migrants, but it favours selective migration of foreigners, who are indispensable for its own economic development.

On abortion, Trump took a flexible position, leaving it to the states to make appropriate legislation that suited them, while Harris was adamant that there should be no restrictions on the rights of women in matters of reproductive health.

It was expected that Harris would get the support of women's voters on this account, but, as it happened, the majority of women did not support her on this issue.

The Biden administration's failure in stopping two major wars and several minor ones was seen as a major disaster by many Americans and the world at large.

It supported the NATO war against Russia in Ukraine with supply of arms and financial assistance without any substantial benefit to the US.

As for the Israeli fight against Hamas, Biden could not restrain Benjamin Netanyahu in his all-out war in Gaza and Lebanon.

The proverbial 'Israeli tail wagging the American dog' is anathema to many Americans. It was felt that Trump, though a committed friend of Israel, would be firm in preventing genocide or excessive use of force.

The sense of helplessness the Americans felt in continuing the Biden legacy by Harris was the key that the surveys, the press and political analysts missed in predicting the results.

The voters knew that Trump's record as president was not impeccable, but they decided to stoop to low standards, so that they can make America great again.

There was no doubt that they felt that a change was necessary, but they had no alternative to Trump to rely on for bringing about a change,

As for India, a neutral position was the only choice, because of the past history of relations with the Democrats and the generally friendly attitude that Trump had maintained during his first term.

At the same time, the prospect of a president of Indian origin in the United States had a certain charm.

But Harris went out of her way to assert her black identity, except for her describing herself as a black politician of Indian origin on the last Saturday before the election on a popular television show.

She was consistently critical of human rights and press freedom in India and urged a change of policy on Jammu & Kashmir.

She also did not care to visit India during her four years as vice-president even though she was warmly invited by the prime minister and the welcome which awaited her.

India had maintained that regardless of political affiliations, every president would nurture India-US relations.

It was clear that Trump was particularly friendly during his first term. At the time of the Chinese intrusions in Ladakh in 2020, he not only provided political support but also supplied vital non-lethal equipment to the Indian Army.

He had even agreed to provide armed drones to India, if necessary.

Trump is likely to continue this policy in future because India is vital in containing China in South Asia and Indo-Pacific.

On trade matters, there were difficulties particularly when he withdrew India's General System of Preferences status.

On the Russia-Ukraine war, the differences in perceptions between the two countries may continue, but if the war ends, the sharpness of these differences may fade away.

Trump was the first US president who accused Pakistan of misusing funds provided for anti-terrorist activities and stopped such funding altogether.

Trump is likely to continue to be friendly towards India in matters of our neighborhood.

His recent support to Hindu religious freedom in Bangladesh, though expressed as part of his election campaign, has distanced the US from the support to the interim government of Mohammed Yunus.

Trump's impressive victory was more a reflection of the failures of the Biden administration, rather than a faith in Trump's ability to provide a predictable and just leadership.

His style of functioning through daily morning tweets and lack of consistency are likely to lead to aberrations in decision making in domestic and foreign policies.

But much will depend on his cabinet and other advisors including the senators and members of the US House of Representatives who are likely to be led by members of his Republican party.

The United States and the world have a major stake in his success as the US president at this critical juncture in geopolitics.

Ambassador T P Sreenivasan is a long-time contributor to Rediff.com.
You can read his earlier columns here.

Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/Rediff.com