Will INDIA's Caste Card Work Against Modi?

'Bihar's caste survey has bolstered the Opposition parties, but one shouldn't forget that the BJP is also trying to present itself as a party that cares for the OBCs more than other parties,' points out Sanjay Kumar.

The Bihar government's caste survey indicated a higher proportion of Other Backward Classes (OBC) than what had been acknowledged for a very long time.

This notable discrepancy between the proportion of OBCs in Bihar as mentioned by the latest caste census and longstanding estimates/speculation provides a strong reason for Opposition parties, including the Congress, to push for their demand for an all India caste C=census.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has already stated that his party will carry out a nationwide caste census, if it comes to power in 2024.

Many Opposition parties have also intensified their call for such a census, while the Bharatiya Janata Party tries to sidestep this demand.

Some also see this moment as Mandal 2.0 in Indian politics.

The events that have unfolded before and after the release of caste survey data lead me to believe that the issue of social justice could become an important topic for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

However, at this moment it is not clear how significant the issue will be.

There are a few reasons why this may not become a very big issue in 2024, certainly not reaching the level of Mandal 2.0.

It is true that the latest caste survey estimated the number of OBCs in Bihar as 63 per cent, a significant increase compared to the earlier estimate of 55 per cent, which has been speculated for decades now.

The Opposition parties are trying to use this information to convey a message to the people regarding the historical denial of justice to the OBCs.

First, the OBCs were denied the benefit of reservation for a very long time, with the quotas implemented only in the mid-1990s after the Mandal Commission report.

However, this was not implemented in its true spirit.

First, a new clause of 'creamy layer' was introduced, unlike in the provisions of reservation for the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes categories.

Second, while the provision of reservation for ]Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes was introduced in proportion to their share in population, for OBCs, the allocation was less than half their share in population.

This is one of the main reasons why the Opposition parties are arguing for a nationwide caste vensus.

They want to get the latest estimates of the OBC population in various states and at the national level.

There is another factor that bolsters the demand of the Opposition.

Recently, when the Bill for reserving seats for women in Parliament and state Assemblies was being passed in Parliament, the government did not concede to the demand by the Opposition parties, including the Congress, to introduce a provision reserving seats for OBC women within the prescribed 33 per cent quota for women.

All this has provided the Opposition parties with a full package of narratives that essentially accuses the current BJP-led government of lacking sympathy for the OBCs.

This package includes all three issues: The historical denial of justice to OBCs for a long time, half-hearted effort at social justice by not providing reservations in proportion to their share in population, and refusing to create provision for OBC women within the 33 per cent reservation quota for women.

It seems the Opposition parties, especially the Janata Dal-United and the Rashtriya Janata Dal in Bihar, now have a tool at their disposal to mobilise the OBC voters.

The question that remains is how effectively the regional parties can wield this tool.

Given these reasons, there is a widespread belief this may be a moment similar to the Mandal movement.

It is indeed true that this issue has bolstered the standing of the Opposition parties, including the Congress, but one should not forget that the BJP is also trying to present itself as a party that cares for the OBCs more than other parties.

The BJP has cited the number of their OBC MPs in the current Parliament, number of their OBC MLAs across states, and the number of ministers in the Union Cabinet belonging to the OBC category.

This was done to convey the message that the BJP has provided sizeable representation to OBCs within the party and in the government.

Let's also not forget that in order to counter Opposition demand for representation to OBCs in proportion to the share in population, Prime Minister Narendra D Modi tried to build a counter narrative that emphasised economic status rather than caste.

He stated that it is the poor who are numerically large, so if anyone needs to be given representation, it is the poor as they are numerically large.

One should also not forget that by championing the cause of one caste or group of castes, one also tends to ignore other castes, potentially leading to counter-mobilisation.

While the number of OBCs in Bihar has turned out to be much higher than what was estimated earlier, this issue may not unite the OBCs in the same way as it did when the Mandal commission recommendations were being implemented.

Cracks are emerging within the OBCS, especially between the higher and the lower caste OBCs.

The BJP has reaped the political benefits from this division.

Attempts to reunite OBCs solely on the issue of caste census or the higher number of OBCs than estimated may not be enough.

A divided OBC, as is the case today, may not be politically as effective as they were when the Mandal report was first implemented.

Messaging is important in politics. In recent times, we have witnessed how effective the BJP machinery is in sending out messages to the general public.

If Opposition parties can effectively convey the message of the historical injustices faced by the OBCs, which continue today due to the BJP's reluctance to conduct a nationwide caste-based census and refusal to provide quota for OBC women in women's reservation, this message could resonate with a section of voters.

However, the question remains: Can Opposition parties successfully accomplish this?

Sanjay Kumar is professor and co-director of Lokniti, a research programme at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies

Nitish Kumar explains the mathematics of the caste survey in the Bihar assembly.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com