Why India Will Like Shigeru Ishiba

Shigeru Ishiba is expected to prioritise strengthening Japan's military capabilities and fostering deeper international partnerships, particularly with India, with whom Japan shares significant strategic interests, explains Dr Rajaram Panda.

In a stunning upset, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party picked its new president on September 27.

With the party's ratings sagging, the LDP picked a perennial and consummate outsider and by extension the next prime minister, the former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba, who truly represented a different direction for the party and a dissident who spent his career refusing to acquiesce to the party orthodoxy.

There were a record nine contenders in the race in the LDP presidential race.

The prominent hopefuls were Sanae Takaichi and the dashing Shinjiro Koizumi, the 43-year-old son of the previous equally dashing prime minister Junichiro Koizumi.

Had the party chosen its first woman leader, Takaichi would have been a case for continuity with the policies of the late Abe Shinzo, who was credited with getting Japan out of its lost decades of economic malaise.

It was Ishiba's fifth presidential bid. He had served as the party's secretary general, won 215 of the 409 valid votes cast by LDP lawmakers and rank-and-file members, while Takaichi secured 194, in a closely competitive race.

Japanese politics may see a churn under Ishiba's tenure as he has been seen as an anti-Abe for years and might reverse some of Abe's policies.

So, what could be Ishiba's foreign policy priorities and focus?

Favouring a utilitarian diplomacy, Ishiba would opt for a softer policy towards China.

As regards US-China rivalry, he is unlikely to blindly side with the US, but would choose a neutral position between Washington and Beijing.

Such a stance could displease US President Joe Biden as he invests much on the alliance relationship to contain mainland China.

Ishiba is likely to pursue a policy of accommodating China to reduce hostility and aim a larger regional goal.

Since Ishiba is unlikely to endorse Abenomics, it would be interesting to watch what approach he chooses to deal with the country's economy.

Sometimes his comments are seen to be contradictory. The Opposition would not hesitate to pounce upon if Ishiba makes any error.

For this to be effective, the Opposition needs to get its act together to confront the LDP, which has ruled Japan almost uninterruptedly since the end of World War II, but has been losing much of its credibility with the public.

Since outgoing prime minister Fumio Kishida's public approval rating had plummeted drastically, he was forced to step down and withdrew from the LDP presidential leadership race.

That situation led to Shigeru Ishiba's radical choice as his successor.

The 67-year-old Ishiba is well-versed in defence, agriculture and regional revitalisation. After winning the leadership race, he urged LDP members to unite, noting that the party, hit by a political funds scandal, faces strong headwinds.

Cleaning the system and regain public's trust would be of his immediate priority.

Ishiba's leadership skills will be put to test as economic growth remains shaky against a backdrop of rising costs affecting households, while provocative actions by China, North Korea and Russia continue to pose security threats to Japan.

After Ishiba was elected, China called on Japan to adopt a 'positive and rational' policy stance, while South Korea expressed hope to maintain close communication and continue improving ties with Tokyo, building on the momentum established under Kishida.

Ishiba envisions the creation of an Asian version of the NATO collective security framework in the region, where tensions remain high between China and Taiwan, drawing a parallel to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

While he emphasises the need for the Japan-US bilateral alliance to be solid, he has also said that as premier, he would seek to review the agreement defining the status of US forces stationed in Japan.

As a former defence minister, Ishiba has indicated that he wants a more equal relationship with his country's only formal treaty ally, the US, which could cause friction.

However, his vision for an Asian equivalent of NATO is seen by many as unworkable. It remains to be seen whether his individualistic streak can restore faith in the LDP.

Washington has rejected Ishiba's vision of an Asian NATO as it thinks it is too hasty.

Though his idea about collective defence in the region sounds noteworthy, it remains unclear how he wants to accomplish it.

Since most of the US troops in Japan are concentrated in Okinawa, Ishiba would seek greater oversight of the bases used by the US.

He also wants Washington to give Japan a say how it would use nuclear weapons in Asia.

Ishiba's push to boost the military and call for the creation of an Asian NATO could rile Beijing, but he is careful with his words concerning China.

He argues that Japan's military should be able to take a stronger response when territorial airspace or waters are breached.

Currently a warning shot is the only option, and China is 'well aware' of that.

Since the days of Abe at the helm, the issue of revising the constitution has faced headwinds for successive prime ministers.

Amending the constitution, especially the war-renouncing Article 9 has remained elusive.

Being aware of the virtual impossibility in a highly polarised political system, Abe introduced the right to collective self-defence, thereby diluting the spirit of Article 9 without actually amending it.

Being a former defence minister Ishiba knows a bit more on defence and security matters.

He wants to revise the war-renouncing constitution to specifically mention the country's Self-Defense Forces, which aligns with the LDP's long-held goal of ending the domestic debate over the constitutionality of the armed organisation.

If he tries too much in resetting the alliance relationship with the US, Ishiba could navigate through difficult terrain.

Since the US is also going to have a new president, Ishiba cannot afford for a dramatic overhaul in Japan's ties with the US.

If he dares to do so, China, Russia and North Korea would surely take advantage to make Japan's position more vulnerable.

As regards the domestic front, steering the economy would be a challenge. There remains uncertainty.

Initially, the yen traded wildly before it finally sharply rose against the dollar, jumping to 142 to a dollar on Ishiba's election win.

This was because Ishiba's nearest political rival, the economic security minister Sanae Takaichi advocated monetary easing, while Ishiba floated the idea of imposing a higher tax on financial income and supports the normalisation of Japan's monetary policy.

In contrast, Takaichi had expressed her intent to continue promoting Abenomics, a hallmark program of Abe intended to stimulate the economy.

Abenomics is associated with bold monetary easing, intended to depreciate the yen and higher stock prices.

But the yen strengthened with Ishiba's win for his advocacy to strengthen the country's financial income taxation.

Ishiba expects the monetary policy will be normalised at a pace that does not disrupt the economy and people's livelihood, while respecting the Bank of Japan's independence.

Takaichi was seen as dovish on economic matters who believed that the Bank of Japan should be cautious in raising interest rates.

While uncertainty remained over how Ishiba will steer the economy, and with news of his victory sending the Japanese yen sharply higher against the dollar, he has taken a positive stance on allowing married couples to use different surnames, a contentious issue that has met resistance from conservative members like Takaichi, who value traditional family structures.

Backed by conservatives aligned with the late premier Shinzo Abe, known for his hawkish views, Takaichi, 63, aspired to become Japan's first-ever lady prime minister in a country known for its failure to promote gender diversity.

As it transpired, that aspiration must remain for a future date to be fulfilled.

Had Takaichi been the winner, she would have clashed with the Bank of Japan over monetary policy, pushed for more fiscal stimulus and potentially damaged relations with Japan's neighbours by visiting the Yasukuni shrine, a memorial for the nation's war dead seen by Japan's neighbours as a symbol of past militarism.

As an intellectual heavyweight on foreign policy and national security, Ishiba's foreign policy strategy could be two-fold.

On one hand, he may seek a more independent foreign policy posture vis-a-vis Japan's relations with the US, but he would be averse to adopting a policy of confrontation towards Japan's neighbours by preferring a more accommodative approach.

In his memoir, Ishiba wrote 'Japan is still not a truly independent country' because of the 'asymmetry' of its dependence on the US.

If he sticks to this position, it could complicate relations with Washington.

As regards his policies on other issues, Ishiba is against the increased use of nuclear energy.

Being a Christian, he supports some socially progressive policies like changing the law to ow married couples to use separate surnames, a move opposed by the LDP's more conservative lawmakers.

Being a former agriculture minister, he promised to move some ministries and government agencies out of Tokyo to help revive Japan's moribund regions.

He has also proposed establishing an agency to oversee the construction of emergency shelters across disaster-prone Japan.

For some time he had quit the LDP being unsatisfied with its policies.

He remained an outspoken critic of LDP policies under Abe and his four year defection to an Opposition group in 1993 had come on the way to get 20 nominations he needed from fellow lawmakers to qualify as a candidate in the election on September 27, but somehow crossed the barrier and finally the frontier to emerge the winner.

Two factors went in his favour: His predecessor's sagging popularity and the slush funds scandal.

Among the innovative ideas that Ishiba has in mind are to create a government agency in charge of disaster prevention in the earthquake-prone country that is also frequently hit by typhoons and heavy rain, and revitalisation of rural regions.

Where does India factor in Ishiba's foreign and defence policy calculations?

Keeping his focus on national defence, Ishiba is expected to prioritise strengthening Japan's military capabilities and fostering deeper international partnerships, particularly with India, with whom Japan shares significant strategic interests.

Ishiba assumes office at a critical juncture as Japan grapples with increasing geopolitical challenges in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly from China.

However, Ishiba's experience as defence minister might motivate him to adopt a more hawkish stance on security, further solidifying Japan's military posture.

This potential transition raises important questions about the continuity and evolution of Japan's strategic objectives and their implications for foreign policy, especially regarding its partnership with India.

Dr Rajaram Panda is former Senior Fellow at Pradhanmantri Memorial Museum and Library, and MP-IDSA, New Delhi. He is also former ICCR Chair Professor at Reitaku University, Japan.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com