India Won't See A Changed Modi!

Modi's government appears singularly focussed on demonstrating that it is not in any way inhibited by the BJP's loss of a majority, and will continue along its patented path of bulldozing all opposition and doing just as it likes, asserts Prem Panicker.

It's been a month-and-a-half since the election results came out, and even as recently as last week, BJP spokespersons on TV 'debates' have been peddling the line that nothing has changed, while mocking the Opposition for 'celebrating a third successive loss'.

Against that backdrop, two items of relatively unnoticed news caught my eye.

In the first, the Editors' Guild of India wrote to Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi expressing concern (external link) over the Union government's recent measures aimed at controlling the media, and seeking his intervention.

The letter lists various measures either notified, or ramrodded through Parliament during the NDA's second term: The Digital Personal Data Protection Act, the Press and Registration of Periodicals Act, the Broadcasting Services Regulation Bill, and various amendments to the Information Technology rules.

The Guild wrote:

'Even though some of them have been enacted in the Parliament, we are highlighting these concerns with an urgent request for driving renewed parliamentary debate and stakeholder consultation on these critical issues affecting press freedom, as well as to safeguard press freedom in any new legislative measure that will have a potential to control media.

"We believe that a free and independent press is vital for the health of our democracy, and it is imperative that these legislative measures are revisited to safeguard these fundamental principles.'

The EGI Web site is crammed with statements (external link) condemning this, that and the other inequity perpetrated by the government.

It is a periodic ritual -- the government cracks its whip, the EGI condemns it, everyone moves on with their lives.

On July 1, for instance, the EGI wrote to (external link) both Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla and Rajya Sabha Chairperson Jagdeep Dhankar asking that restrictions imposed (external link) on mediapersons covering Parliament be removed. (These restrictions, by the way, were put in place using the excuse of the Covid pandemic -- and not lifted subsequently.)

Neither of those gentlemen has shown any indication of even having read the letter, let alone acted on it.

So now the EGI, at least some of whose members run news organisations hyping the government and its Leader, have now approached the LoP asking for his intervention.

Implicit in that act is the recognition that things have changed, and that the Opposition is no longer the toothless entity it was during the NDA's first two terms in office.

And now, some 400 ex-employees of ICICI Bank have written (external link) to Rahul Gandhi:

'We need your help in discussing the harassment and illegal termination of employees across India'.

Nothing has changed? I don't think so -- there is a growing perception that now, there is an Opposition with a voice and the political heft to make itself heard, in Parliament and outside.

Equally, will this change anything? Again, I don't think so, not in the short run -- for now, Modi's government appears singularly focussed on demonstrating that it is not in any way inhibited by the BJP's loss of a majority, and will continue along its patented path of bulldozing all opposition and doing just as it likes.

Chess players will recognise this phase as the beginning of the middle game, with both sides jockeying for advantageous positions.

This phase will likely last through the budget session (where the key is how the government manages the demands of its allies), through impending bypolls in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Rajasthan, Assam, Bihar and Karnataka totalling 33 seats in all, and through the elections for the state assemblies of Haryana, Jharkhand and crucially, Maharashtra.

If the Opposition does well in these -- and current indications are that it is likely to do very well -- then the end game is in sight.

Speaking of impending elections, Home Minister Amit A Shah has kicked off the BJP campaign this past week, with campaigns to Jharkhand and Maharashtra.

And what is clear is that the BJP -- or at least, Shah -- has learned nothing from the Lok Sabha campaign, or even from the recent by-poll results that saw the NDA win just two of the 13 seats that polled.

The party's internal reviews uniformly pointed out that 'Hindutva' and more generally, a campaign based on communalism, had reached the point of diminished marginal returns.

So what does Shah do in Jharkhand? He goes right back to the tired tropes (external link) of love jihad, land jihad, ghuspetiya -- themes the electorate has clearly signalled it doesn't give a flying fish about.

Similarly in Maharashtra, the party's internal review cited sympathy for Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar among the major reasons for the electoral reverses the BJP and allies suffered in that state.

So of course, Shah goes to Maharashtra and names Sharad Pawar as the kingpin of all corruption (external link) in the country -- this, while sitting on the same stage are the likes of Ashok Chavan, Ajit Pawar et al who the BJP had earlier vociferously accused of large-scale corruption.

And if this was not enough, he falls back on his favourite target -- Muslims -- with this riff on the 'Aurangzeb Fan Club' (external link) which, he says, is incapable of bringing peace and security in the country.

Internal peace and security is Shah's remit as home minister -- and he makes this speech while, on the same day, yet another terrorist attack has been reported from Rajouri, and Manipur remains on the boil.

Seriously, if Shah's opening salvos are an indication of how the BJP intends to campaign for the three state elections, you can almost guarantee the result -- a crushing defeat.

While on the subject of the mythical love jihad, remember Purola? In court, last week, it was established that the whole thing was a deliberate hoax (external link) or, more accurately, a false flag operation mounted by the saffron brigade.

The Indian Express reports that while life in the town has returned to a semblance of normalcy, the fissures created for narrow political gains (the BJP won all five seats in the recent Lok Sabha elections) remain, and will be hard to heal.