PDP-BJP alliance is the only way forward in J&K

When he was chief minister, Mufti Mohammad Sayeed was able to blunt inter-regional and inter-communal tensions which Farooq and Omar Abdullah could not do. Whether he can repeat it with the BJP by his side would have to be seen, says Mohammad Sayeed Malik.

The imposition of governor's rule in Jammu and Kashmir on Friday, January 9, is likely to be a short-duration (possibly two to three weeks) Constitutional arrangement to pave the way for the installation of a coalition government of the Peoples Democratic Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party who are engaged in backstage talks to forge a common ground to formalise their alliance.

For the second time since 2002, the National Conference has forced New Delhi's hands to go for the politically inconvenient Constitutional measure even as efforts were underway to cobble a viable ruling entity within the stipulated time.

Caretaker chief minister Omar Abdullah could have continued till then. But, emulating his father Farooq Abdullah (in 2002), he went for an early exit, obviously for his political convenience.

Having lost power in the just-concluded assembly election, Omar has been taking pot shots at his opponents, PDP patron Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, whose party with 28 seats in the 87-member legislative assembly has emerged as the single largest party, followed by the BJP with 25 seats.

The National Conference's monopoly in Jammu and Kashmir was broken in 2002 when for the first time it failed to return with a majority, having got 30 seats (14 short of the majority).

While the PDP and the Congress were (then) engaged in talks for a coalition, Farooq Abdullah refused to serve as caretaker chief minister, forcing the imposition of governor's rule for a fortnight until the Mufti-led PDP-Congress coalition was installed on November 2, 2002. Omar, whose party in the 2014 elections returned with 16 seats, chose to emulate his father (recovering in London after a kidney transplant).

Omar, though defeated and out of the reckoning, has been busy sniping at Mufti and his PDP. His so-called offer of support to the PDP (to keep away the BJP) is nothing but a political stunt, intended to add to the PDP's discomfiture (in the Muslim-majority Kashmir valley) in befriending the ideologically contrasting BJP.

Mufti is too old in the game to be distracted and has chosen to ignore Omar's pinpricks while quietly pursuing his alliance formation talks with the BJP.

In the given post-poll configuration only the PDP-BJP combine can provide a stable arrangement with a fair regional balance. Jammu and Kashmir's geographical/demographic composition virtually makes it a three-region, three-community combine in which any kind of representative/participatory imbalance in the government is fraught with unimaginable implications.

This exigency seems to have gone home. Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitey's recent statement says that much. Referring to the diametrically opposed political/ideological agenda of the BJP and the PDP, Jaitley observed that 'Political parties can come together to provide a stable government without having to compromise on their respective political agendas.' The PDP appears to be reflecting the same approach.

The political agenda of the two parties, otherwise, has everything in conflict than common. Whether it is the issue of Article 370 of the Constitution of India, retention of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act or the resettlement of Jammu-based West-Pakistan refugees, the two parties are face to face with each other.

There is no meeting ground. Jaitley's statement indicates that a way has been found to short circuit this hurdle and strive for coalition with the PDP.

Still, if it is taking time to make headway it is mainly because the PDP might be testing the troubled waters of the valley which is its political base. Besides the National Conference, separatists have mounted a counter offensive to thwart the PDP-BJP alliance, on the ground that the Saffron Parivar's entry into the Muslim-dominated valley would turn out to be the thin end of the wedge 'to alter Kashmir's demographic composition.' Divisive cries emanating from the Parivar backyard (ghar wapsi etc) have not helped the coalition talks either.

Another view is that the BJP does not want to be seeing diluting its ultra-nationalistic image (for the sake of a making maiden entry into power in J&K) at a time when the crucial Delhi elections are underway.

Imposition of the governor's rule (under J&K's separate constitution) has a 6-month upper limit. It cannot be extended and will have to be followed by fresh elections if no other arrangement emerges by that deadline.

Should it come to that very unlikely situation, governor's rule can be followed with President's rule which has no such periodic limitation. J&K has been under governor's rule and President's rule from 1990 to 1996.

The task ahead for the PDP and the BJP is pretty difficult, more so, in a highly politicised state like J&K. If anything, the support bases of the two intending-alliance partners are traditionally hostile in every sense of the word.

Their political platforms are of contrasting complexion. They secured a mandate virtually against each other's agenda, if not so directly against each other. If and when they get together running, the heterogeneous coalition is not going to be easy.

The only thing that they can hopefully look up to is that at one time (during Sheikh Abdullah's time) the image of the Congress party in the valley was almost the same as that of the BJP today. Sheikh Abdullah's call for social boycott of Congressmen said it in so many terms. Yet a time came when not the Sheikh, but his progeny bent over backwards to justify supping with devil, as it were.

Today, the Congress is generally seen as a 'virtue' against the 'evil' of the BJP. During the time of social boycott, local Congressmen were sought to be excommunicated from the Muslim community and treated as religious untouchables. The Sheikh was merciless in pushing his tirade. However, his Kashmir Accord in 1975 changed all that and everything became kosher after that.

Whether Mufti can at least soften his supporters' rigidity on this score only time can tell. Mufti's higher rating over the governance issue is his plus point. His short 30 month stint (2002 to 2005) is fondly remembered even by his opponents. His coalition with the Congress left behind a good performance record.

Importantly, Mufti was able to blunt the inter-regional and inter-communal tensions which Farooq and Omar Abdullah could not do. Whether he can repeat it with the BJP by his side would have to be seen.

In any case, first things first: His (as well as the BJP's) immediate test lies ensuring that governor's rule does not get extended beyond a couple of weeks.