Pakistan Poll Results Stun Army

The result is a big blow to the military establishment, revealing the limits of 'political engineering'.

It reflected the anger of the electorate, especially its younger voters, who have spoken decisively against the persistent harassment and victimisation of Imran Khan's political party, asserts Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at RA&W.

In a completely unexpected result in the February 8 general elections, Pakistan Tehrik e Insaf (PTI) backed Independents won 99 seats, of the 248 results declared so far (out of 265).

The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) stalled at 71 seats while the Peoples Party of Pakistan could win 53 seats, mostly from Sindh.

The Mohajir Quami Movement (Pakistan) won 15 seats in Karachi.

In the provincial assemblies, PTI backed Independents emerged in a landslide in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), winning 90 seats out of 113.

In Punjab, there was a neck to neck race between PTI backed Independents and the PML (N), with the latter ultimately reaching a majority in the 361 member House.

The Sharif family scions were able to win their seats from Lahore, both in the national assembly and Punjab assembly, other party stalwarts like Rana Sanaullah, Khurram Dastgir, Khwaja Saad Rafique have been defeated.

In Sindh, the Peoples Party of Pakistan won a majority again, with little opposition in the rural areas.

Balochistan has again seen a fractured mandate, with the Peoples Party of Pakistan winning 9 seats, the PML (N) 8 and the Jamiat ul Ulema -e-Islam (JuI-Fazlur Rehman) a few seats.

Baloch nationalist parties did not do so well.

Breakaway faction leaders from Imran Khan's PTI like Jehangir Tareen of the Ishteqam Party (IPP) and Pervez Khattak of the PTI (Parliamentarians) lost badly, though Aleem Khan and Aun Chaudhry could win national assembly seats.

The polling could be held smoothly enough despite sporadic violence in areas bordering Afghanistan.

The interior ministry reported 61 attacks nationwide, with 16 killed including 10 security personnel, justifying temporary suspension of cellular phone services and Internet on this account.

There were unprecedented delays in the declaration of results.

The Election Management System, devised by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP_, failed to function late on February 8 night, even as electronic media channels in Pakistan started releasing the trends obtained unofficially from polling, presiding and returning officers.

Several returning officers were replaced at the ECP's behest, leading to allegations of rigged outcomes.

This result is a big blow to the military establishment, revealing the limits of 'political engineering', though enabling credibility of a fair and free poll.

It reflected the anger of the electorate, especially its younger voters, who have spoken decisively against the persistent harassment and victimisation of the PTI.

After a day's delay, an Inter Services Public Relations press release conveyed the army chief's felicitations to the people of Pakistan and administrative functionaries for conducting a free and fair poll in difficult circumstances.

He called for 'stable hands' and 'a healing touch' at this juncture, as it was important to 'move on from the politics of anarchy and polarisation'.

Nevertheless, the army is unlikely to retreat from its controlling role in domestic politics. Efforts were initiated to determine who will become the prime minister.

In a speech in Lahore on February 9 evening, Nawaz Sharif said he respected the mandate given to all political parties, even independent candidates, and suggested that a ten year period of stability was needed, as a collective effort to take the country out of the current quagmire.

As last reports came in, PML (N) leaders met the PPP's Asif Zardari in Lahore. They have now been summoned to Islamabad for last minute efforts to cobble together a coalition which could work toward a majority in the 'hung' national assembly.

With the smaller parties like the MQM (P), JuI (F), PML (Q) and IPP coming on board, the numbers could reach 134. Some Independents may still be pressurised to desert the PTI.

However, the PTI claims a majority of its own and there is talk of joining a smaller registered political party like the Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen (MWM), a Shia party pledged to work for Shia-Sunni unity in Pakistan, led by Allama Raja Nasir Abbas, which won two seats in the national assembly. This may help it claim a share of the 70 reserved seats for women and minorities.

The election verdict does not mean that Imran Khan would be coming out of jail any time soon, though recent judgments against him will be challenged in the higher courts.

It does establish though, that despite his incarceration since the last six months and more, Imran has been able to decisively hit back in his political contestation against the military establishment.

Whether this presages an end to the intensely bitter environs of feuding, name-calling against Opposition leaders and heads of institutions and heralds a more pragmatic move on his part towards reconciliation, remains to be seen.

After a new government is formed, civil military relations will remain fractious. The civilian prime minister will be heading a weak, tenuous, coalition.

When the Special Investment Facilitation Council (was set up by the previous coalition government, army chief General Syed Asim Munir was allowed to have a decisive say in its handling.

Differences may arise now on handling of economic policy and over appointment of the finance minister, especially if Nawaz Sharif wants to entrust it again to Ishaq Dar. Instead, Ahsan Iqbal's name is emerging as a more acceptable candidate.

If the PPP joins a coalition led by PML (N) again, it may demand a greater share in power. Bilawal Bhutto's recent hostile stance may or may not deter aspirations to claim the foreign ministry again.

The MQM (P) will also have to be accommodated though its demand for a greater role in Karachi's urban regeneration will pose a red rag to the PPP.

The present director general, ISI, Lieutenant General Nadeem Anjum is on an open-ended extension. Munir will have to decide whether he can be replaced now.

The civilian prime minister is unlikely to have a say in this appointment.

Whether Munir now feels secure enough to effect the long delayed re-shuffle to post out senior lieutenant generals of the 80th Pakistan Military Academy long course, who have been cooling their heels in staff assignments at GHQ, to aspired for corps commands will also be watched with interest.

Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/Rediff.com