Pakistan looks at nuclear weapons as a hedge from behind which it can carry on its Gazwa E Hind, (conquest of India), using terrorism as an instrument of State power, points out Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
On April 22, 2025, Lashkar e Taiba terrorists killed in execution style 26 male tourists. The terrorists checked the potential victims' religion and murdered only non-Muslims.
India launched an aerial attack on selected terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan on the night of May 7/8, 2025. The exchange of missiles continued till May 10 when both sides agreed to a ceasefire after Pakistan suffered major damage to its airbases.
Outside powers intervened when there was a danger of conflict escalating to an exchange of nuclear weapons.
There are many lessons to be learnt from Operation Sindoor, that will be done on the first anniversary of the event. I will only deal with why these murders took place in Pahalgam and to assess the motivation of Pakistani terrorists as well as international politics involved in India-Pakistan relations.
The most obvious reason for the Pahalgam attack was to derail peace in Kashmir. Pakistan and its terror proxies were clearly rattled by the fact that post the abrogation of Article 370 and Kashmir's special status on August 5, 2019, peace had prevailed in Kashmir.
The threatened 'rivers of blood' did not materialise. The incidents of violent stone pelting, an echo of copycat action from resistance in Palestine, ended.
Peace in Kashmir and development of infrastructure in Kashmir showed the dividends of peace to Kashmiris. Pakistan began to lose hope of ever being able to get Kashmir, its unfinished agenda.
The massacre in Pahalgam was meant to destroy the tourism boom in Kashmir, impoverish Kashmiris and force them into the arms of agitators.
The other contributory factor was the sense of complacency that was set in the security apparatus. I was in Sonmarg in October 2023, nearly 18 months before the Pahalgam massacre. We had gone on a day excursion about 5/6 kms away from Sonmarg town and the military camp area.
The area where we had gone was like Pahalgam's Baisaran meadows. In retrospect, if terrorists were to suddenly appear in that area, we were utterly defence less.
Even two years before Pahalgam, the security was relaxed; one can imagine that by 2025, it had nearly become a habit. Since 2019, prevailing peace had made us lower our guard.
We, Indians, forgot that for Pakistan, the Kashmir dispute and blood feud with India is the raison d'etre for its existence. It is also the excuse with which the Pakistan army keeps its grip over the State.
Peace in Kashmir and between India and Pakistan is against the interests of the Pakistan army. This situation has not changed over the last 79 years.
The Pahalgam attack was also a copy cat effort by LeT to repeat Hamas' attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Hamas leader Naji Zaheer visited Pakistan several times. Dr Khalid Al-Qadoumi, another Hamas leader, visited Pakistan occupied Kashmir in February 2025, a couple of months before the Pahalgam attack.
LeT and many Pakistanis regard the Hamas attack on Israel as a victory. Just a few months earlier Pakistan's army chief had made virulent statements against India, encouraging LeT.
Indians were disappointed with the world's -- and especially the Western world's reaction -- to Pahalgam. There were very few takers for India's accusation against Pakistan.
Most Indians are only dimly aware of the historical context of the 'making' of Pakistan. The late V K Krishna Menon called Pakistan a 'Western imperial outpost in Asia'.
The chief purpose of its existence is to check India's rise. The West similarly created Taiwan as the Republic of China to keep China similarly engaged.
Since China has risen economically and militarily, the utility of Taiwan as a counter to China is diminished. But it still serves as an important American base and listening post.
Pakistan on the other hand, although much weakened after its split in 1971, still retains more than its nuisance value. With the help of elements in India it keeps India militarily engaged and politically weak.
Indians should have realised the depth of American investment in Pakistan. In 2012, Osama bin Laden, its most wanted terrorist, was found in Pakistan and neutralised.
Did the US think of punishing Pakistan like it did Afghanistan for the same crime? No. Instead, Pakistan continues to get US military and financial aid.
Pakistan as a proxy to check India retains its value to the West as well as the Chinese.
Many Indians, including I and our think-tank INPAD, totally misread Pakistan in 1998.
We thought now that Pakistan has nuclear weapons, it would no longer feel insecure vis a vis a bigger India and peace should be possible.
We promoted and lobbied with the Vajpayee government for a peace initiative with Pakistan. We and many others were totally wrong on this count. Pakistan does not feel insecure vis a vis India.
Pakistan looks at nuclear weapons as a hedge from behind which it can carry on its Gazwa E Hind, (conquest of India) using terrorism as an instrument of State power.
If we compare Hamas' attack on Israel in 2023 and the Pahalgam terror attack of 2025, unlike the Palestinians, Pakistan has escaped lightly.
Has Op Sindoor created a fear in LeT against Indian retaliation? Absence of any major terror attack in the last year may well seem so. But has the Pahalgam attack and its aftermath changed basic policies in Pakistan? There is no clear answer to this question.
Under President Trump, Pakistan has become even more important in the Middle East. These are not good signs as far as India is concerned.
The US, as in the past, may well sacrifice Indian interests for a friendly Pakistan.
These are Colonel Anil A Athale's personal views.
You can read Colonel Athale's earlier columns here.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff